Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

NBA Finals in Las Vegas: Game 1 betting odds, picks and preview

Lebron James vs Celtics

Elise Amendola / AP FILE

Cavaliers forward LeBron James drives against the Celtics during Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals, Friday, May 19, 2017, in Boston.

Many considered the Cavaliers’ comeback from a 3-1 deficit against the record-setting Warriors last year the greatest upset in NBA Finals history.

It’s going to take an even bigger upset for Cleveland to repeat against Golden State in this year’s Finals, which begins at 6 tonight in Oakland, Calif., airing on ESPN. The Cavaliers sit as a plus-215 (risking $1 to win $2.15) underdog against the Warriors in most local sports books, with the Warriors priced at minus-255 (risking $2.55 to win $1). That’s up from last year’s numbers of Golden State minus-210 and Cleveland plus-180, and implies slightly more than a 70 percent chance that the Warriors will avenge their defeat.

For all the anticipation of watching the first Finals in history with the same teams for the third straight year, the odds aren’t optimistic on the final act of the trilogy delivering the desired payoff.

Golden State is the biggest Finals favorite in eight years — since the Lakers were minus-280 ahead of beating the Magic in six games in 2009. The Warriors lay 7 points on tonight’s spread, the largest Game 1 line in a decade since the Spurs swept the Cavaliers out of the Finals in LeBron James’ first appearance.

Plenty of bettors are continuing to honor James as their king, though. Much to bookmakers’ delight, action has stayed close to split since the championship matchup was set a week ago, but there’s been a slight tilt toward Cleveland both in the series and Game 1 as tipoff draws closer.

Cleveland opened as high as plus-225 in the series with Golden State at minus-265 before underdog bettors shaved 10 cents off the price. The 7-point Game 1 line has stuck at 99 percent of Nevada’s sports books, but Wynn Las Vegas did move to Cleveland minus-6.5.

It’s hard to fault gamblers for indulging themselves in a high price on a team playing as dominant as the defending champions. The Cavaliers’ playoff run has confirmed suspicions that they were apathetic during the regular season, with James specifically improving his numbers across the board including scoring 32.5 points per game on a .566 field goal percentage.

Kevin Love has been much more ingrained than last year’s playoffs, averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds while shooting nearly 48 percent on 3-pointers this postseason. And it’s impossible not to remember how much Kyrie Irving tortured the Warriors by outplaying Stephen Curry in last year’s final three games.

For Game 1, James has an over/under point total of 32 with Irving at 25.5 and Love at 18.5. The Warriors’ three leading scorers add up to just as much, with Kevin Durant at 28.5, Steph Curry at 27.5 and Klay Thompson at 17.5.

If that sounds like a lot of points, well, it is. The game’s over/under of 226 points is the largest in NBA Finals history.

Cleveland’s offensive mastery has led it to a 12-1 straight-up, 8-4-1 against the spread record in the playoffs that would garner a lot more attention in any other season. In this case, the Warriors have outdone the Cavaliers with the greatest start in postseason history at 12-0 straight-up.

Two other teams in the modern era have reached the Finals unscathed, the Lakers in both 1989 and 2001, but that was when best-of-five series still decided the first round. The good news for the Cavaliers is, both those teams lost Game 1.

Something else working in Cleveland’s favor despite not having home-court advantage is its greatness on the road so far in the playoffs, as the Cavaliers have gone 6-0-1 against the spread away from Quicken Loans Arena. The Warriors are also perfect away from home, covering in all six games while, like the Cavaliers, going 2-4 versus the number at home.

Current odds give Golden State around a 10 percent chance of becoming the ninth team in NBA history to sweep the Finals, and thus becoming the first to finish the playoffs unbeaten. Based on a lack of line movement, the Warriors winning four straight against the Cavaliers hasn’t been a popular option among bettors.

This isn’t the first time Cleveland has come into the finals edging Golden State in ticket count, as it was the same way in each of the last two years. The Cavaliers fell short in 2015, before coming through last year.

It all sets up for what should be an epic third act. Forget the odds; this series could be every bit as enthralling as last year.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy