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March 28, 2024

NFL Playoffs by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the divisional round

Gamblers beat up on bookmakers over first weekend of postseason

NFL Games 12/18/16

Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby (2) celebrates with his teammates after kicking a game winning field goal against the Chicago Bears during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2016, in Chicago. The Packers won 30-27. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Lines of parlay winners stacked so tall last Sunday that sports book directors may have needed to call the casino cage to get more cash.

The NFL nightmare continued for local bookmakers in the wild-card round. After a disappointing final two months of the regular season, they endured a devastating opening playoff weekend.

All four favorites covered to extend the streak bettors are currently riding against the house. It’s been several years since the betting public had such a prolonged stretch of success betting football.

Talking Points wishes it could celebrate alongside everyone more. The wild-card round was unspectacular for the blog, which went 2-2 against the spread picking every game.

Lines are tight for the playoffs, and it’s unprofitable to pick every game, so we’re just shooting for anything over .500 in the postseason. That means a lot rides on this weekend’s divisional round, with more than half of the NFL games left to play going down this weekend.

Check below to find Talking Points’ picks and analysis on those four contests below.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, 1:35 p.m. Saturday on Fox

The line: Falcons minus-5. After last week’s debacle, bookmakers must feel relieved to start the divisional round with this game. Seattle at Atlanta should attract the most even betting action of the postseason so far. There’s a slight bent to the Falcons’ side, pushing the spread up a point from mostly opening at minus-4, but it’s unlikely to spiral out of control. The Seahawks’ easy cover of minus-8 in a 26-6 win against the Lions last week has alleviated concerns of a betting market that had been turning against them after two straight losses to end the season. It feels like no one has gone against the Falcons in weeks and the support has been awarded as Atlanta closed the season on a 4-2 against-the-spread streak out of its bye week.

The matchup: Perhaps part of the reason betting action is so divided on this game is because the advantages are so defined. Dan Quinn left Seattle with the intention to reconstruct the defense he coordinated there as the coach in Atlanta. He’s failed to this point, but it hasn’t mattered because of the offensive transformation he’s overseen. Atlanta somewhat quietly scored the seventh-most points in NFL history this season, and led the league in the majority of offensive categories. The Falcons do everything well when it comes to moving the ball. The connection between quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Julio Jones is well established, but for the first time in a couple of seasons, other targets have emerged as efficient options. Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel have combined for 94 receptions, averaging more than 13 yards per catch. Dallas is the only team remaining in the playoffs with a better rushing offense, as Atlanta averages 4.6 yards per carry with running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman behind a young ascending offensive line.

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Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn, center, congratulates nose tackle Jonathan Babineaux (95) after a play against the Tennessee Titans in the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 25, 2015, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)

Shutting down high-powered offenses is the focal point of the Seahawks, though, particularly when it comes to their past playoff prowess. And if they’ve lost anything defensively since Quinn’s exit, it’s only been incremental. Seattle’s rush defense is better than ever this season, leading the NFL in giving up 3.4 yards per attempt. Its defensive front was particularly disruptive last week, holding Detroit to 4.9 yards per play. Matthew Stafford was under constant pressure from defensive end Cliff Avril, who had two sacks just like he did against the Falcons earlier this year. They didn’t help much as the Falcons racked up 362 yards on the Seahawks, which held on for a controversial 26-24 win but no cover as 7-point favorites when a pass interference penalty wasn’t called. That result could support an argument for backing either side in the rematch. No wonder opinions are split.

The pick: Seahawks plus-5

Houston Texans at New England Patriots, 5:15 p.m. Saturday on CBS

The line: Patriots minus-17. This is the highest point spread in an NFL Playoff game since the 1994 divisional round when the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers laid 17.5 points the No. 6 seed Chicago Bears. The 49ers won 44-15. Many expect a similar result at Gillette Stadium considering this line has jumped as much as 1.5 points from where it opened locally last weekend. Only a couple of sports books are currently sitting at minus-17, as minus-16 is the more widespread price. But it wouldn’t be a shocking twist if the extra point got added more places around town with early reports indicating more than three out of every four tickets coming on the Patriots. The determining factor will be whether the historically high point spread entices any professional bettors to buy back on the Texans.

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Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler, right, hands off to Lamar Miller on Sunday, October, 30, 2016, during the first half of an NFL game against the Detroit Lions in Houston.

The matchup: It’s no guarantee the Texans can entice anyone with the way they’ve played this year. By now, the struggles of quarterback Brock Osweiler and the offense overall are well known. But Houston’s been equally dreadful from a betting perspective. Before last week’s 27-14 victory over the Raiders as 4-point favorites, the Texans had failed to cover in five of their final six regular season games. The 13-point margin was their largest of the year and only second time they won by more than a touchdown. The first was all the way back in Week 1, when the Texans beat the Bears 23-14 as 5.5-point favorites. Edging out close games is often chalked up as luck, and while that’s mostly true, there’s also a little more to it. In other words, the Texans have gotten this far because they have a great defense. It’s a defense that probably hasn’t gotten enough credit for the way it dealt with losing former MVP candidate J.J. Watt for the season. Having a third-string rookie quarterback in Conor Cook go up against All Pro-level talents like edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, linebacker Benardick McKinney and cornerback Jonathan Joseph looked simply unfair.

Of course, the same was true when the Patriots trotted out Jacoby Brissett against the Texans earlier this year. They still won 27-0. Houston limited New England to 282 total yards, and less than 5 yards per play, but still never appeared to stand a chance. That’s the problem with only having a good defense: It can only take a team so far. If anything, New England has the opposite problem. The Patriots had a mediocre defense by any measure this season, but it didn’t matter since they faced what Football Outsiders’ DVOA rates the weakest schedule in the league. It also didn’t matter because they fielded another transcendent offense behind Tom Brady, who racked up 28 touchdowns to two interceptions. New England went 13-3 against the spread, including 10-2 with Brady. Just as it adds up that no one wants to back Houston, it’s understandable why everyone runs to New England.

The pick: Texans plus-17

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 1:40 p.m. Sunday on Fox

The line: Cowboys minus-4.5. It felt like a pivotal betting moment in the season when the Cowboys ransacked the Packers 30-13 as 5-point underdogs for a fifth straight cover in the middle of a nine-game against the spread winning streak. It felt like the Cowboys would usurp the title of most popularly bet team in the NFC with no one having a chance to catch them — much less the Packers themselves. And much less the Packers taking the majority of the bets in a game at Dallas. Green Bay’s seven game winning streak, during which they’ve gone 6-1 against the spread, has thrown everything out of whack. Aaron Rodgers has reassumed his place alongside Brady as the most bet-on player in the NFL. The only thing keeping the line relatively stable is big bets on the Cowboys to counteract the majority of tickets on the Packers.

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Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, center, approaches the end zone after a long run for a touchdown as Cincinnati Bengals free safety George Iloka, right, gives chase in the second half of an NFL game Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016, in Arlington, Texas.

The matchup: Green Bay is unlikely to have its No. 1 receiver, and it’s unlikely to matter — at least on the point spread. Lines hardly ever move for any position except quarterback so losing Jordy Nelson to an assortment of injuries suffered in last week’s 38-13 win over the Giants is far from a crippling setback. The loss of Nelson was seen as a major factor in the Packers’ offensive woes last year, but they might be better sustained to endure it now. Rodgers himself has praised the progression of Davante Adams, who has the production to prove it in his third year. Adams has set career highs across the board including 12 touchdowns and 13.3 yards per reception. The Packers are also getting underrated contributions from their tight ends, Jared Cook and Richard Rogers, who might cause problems for a Cowboys’ defense that had matchup problems defending the position all season.

The Cowboys are a lot like the Packers in that they’re set on offense. No one doubts the ability of regular-season rushing champion Ezekiel Elliott at this point, or the decision-making of Dak Prescott, who set a rookie record with a 0.9 interception rate. Also like Green Bay, Dallas is vulnerable on defense. By DVOA, the Cowboys have the 19th rated defense in the league. Much of the mediocre standing comes from their pass defense, which Rodgers should be able to pounce on. The question is if Prescott can do the same against Green Bay’s secondary. The rookie outdueled the future Hall of Famer the fist time around. Prescott threw for three touchdowns and 9.1 yards per attempt to Rodger’s single touchdown and seven yards per attempt. Clearly, Rodgers is better now even without his top target. It’s no surprise the total on this game, 52.5, is the highest of the playoffs so far.

The pick: Packers plus-4.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, 5:20 p.m. Sunday on NBC

The line: Chiefs minus-1.5 Based on the number from when these teams met earlier in the season, this point spread makes perfect sense. Based on the result from when these teams met earlier in the season, this point spread makes little sense. The Steelers gave the Chiefs 3 points on the betting line in a week 4 game in Pittsburgh. Make the standard adjustment for home field advantage, and the line winds up right about where it is now heading into the rematch. But that also means it doesn’t account for the Steelers’ 43-14 shellacking of the Chiefs in the first game. Oddsmakers tried, opening the number at Pittsburgh minus-1. The big bettors wouldn’t have it, driving the number toward Kansas City. That’s the same way it went before the first game, as the Chiefs opened as 5.5-point underdogs.

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith passes against the Oakland Raiders during the first half of an NFL game Sunday, Oct. 16, 2016, in Oakland, Calif.

The matchup: Professional gamblers found a favorite in the Chiefs all year, and were mostly rewarded for their patronage. Kansas City went 9-7 against the spread including covering in five of its final six. Recreational players kept the Chiefs at more of a distance. The difference in perception adds up given the profile of the team. The Chiefs do a lot well, but not the type of things that stimulate the general public’s interest. Given the effectiveness of kicker Cairo Santos and return man Tyreek Hill, they had the best special teams in the league. The defense wasn’t much worse than that when fully healthy, and oft-injured centerpieces Justin Houston, Eric Berry and Tamba Hali are all listed as probable ahead of Sunday’s game. Kansas City’s offense remained vanilla and full of check downs, but quarterback Alex Smith actually aired it out more than he has in any season since 2007. The loss to Pittsburgh was an obvious exception as Smith didn’t complete a pass longer than 20 yards despite his team falling into a major early hole.

If there’s a reason to discount that first meeting, it’s that the Steelers haven’t played nearly as well on the road as they did at home this season. Pittsburgh has gone 5-3 straight-up and against the spread away from Heinz Field, but won by only an average of 2 points per game. It stands at 7-2 at home with an average margin of 8 points per game. It’s hard to know how the Steelers will play on any given week, harder than any other team in fact. The Steelers ranked dead last in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ variance metric. Don’t forget that the week before blowing out the Chiefs, they lost 34-3 to the Eagles. A lot of the Steelers’ down performances are chalked up to not having their Big Three of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell healthy. They’re ready now, but the bar’s been set high as far as performances against the Chiefs.

The pick: Chiefs minus-1.5

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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