Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 10 winners against the spread

Sherman

John Froschauer / AP

Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (25) signals no good after Buffalo Bills kicker Dan Carpenter (2) failed to kick a field goal in the first half of an NFL football game, Monday, Nov. 7, 2016, in Seattle.

NFL Games 11/6/16

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry (14) runs the ball as New York Jets free safety Marcus Gilchrist (21), attempts to make the tackle, during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 6, 2016, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee) Launch slideshow »

Week 10: Seahawks at Patriots

Which side would you take in Seahawks at Patriots? (Poll consensus year to date: 5-4)
Patriots minus-8 — 53.0%
Seahawks plus-8 — 47.0%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

This week’s Super Bowl 49 rematch might also end up as a Super Bowl 51 preview.

The betting odds say the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are the most likely pair to meet on Feb. 5, 2017, in Houston at this season’s conclusion anyway.

The Patriots are currently a minus-175 (risking $1.75 to win $1) favorite to win the AFC at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. The Seahawks are right with the Dallas Cowboys and offered at the lowest odds, plus-300 (risking $1 to win $3), to win the NFC.

Nowhere locally posts odds on potential Super Bowl matchups, but offshore, Patriots vs. Seahawks is the favorite at plus-700. Patriots vs. Cowboys trails closely behind at plus-750.

First, the teams must square off on Sunday Night Football for the first time since February 2015 when the Patriots edged the Seahawks 28-24 to win the Lombardi Trophy. One of the biggest changes has been in the point spread.

New England was only a 1-point favorite in that neutral site game in Phoenix, but swells to as high as minus-8 hosting Seattle this year. New England has earned that type of respect in the betting market by going undefeated both straight-up and against the spread since quarterback Tom Brady’s return from a four-week suspension.

Seattle has gone through more swings this season, sitting at 4-4 against the spread despite its 5-2-1 straight-up record.

Check out which side Talking Points likes below, along with picks on all the rest of the games. The blog’s rotten year continued in Week 9 as a 6-7 record picking every game brought the season total down to 58-74-1. Picks are separated into three confidence categories as always with lines the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (10-22-1)

Minnesota Vikings plus-3 at Washington Redskins Three weeks ago, Minnesota was a Super Bowl favorite and would have laid points against Washington. This line is a vast overreaction as the Vikings are even getting a few more points than they would have before last week when they lost to the Lions in overtime despite outplaying them in regulation.

Philadelphia Eagles pick’em vs. Atlanta Falcons Philadelphia continues to be the unluckiest team in the NFL, as its Pythagorean expectation indicates its record should be closer to 7-1 than 4-4. With the league’s best pass defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Eagles won’t need breaks to turn it around against Atlanta’s aerial offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-2 vs. Dallas Cowboys Remember what happened the last time the Steelers gave around a field goal at home coming off an embarrassing loss? They crushed Kansas City 34-3. Ben Roethlisberger will be healthier in his second week back and his team is far more desperate than the Cowboys, which are riding high with seven straight wins and covers.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-2.5 at New York Giants The Giants have mounted one of the least impressive three-game winning streaks imaginable considering they’ve been outgained by more than 200 yards in the stretch. The Bengals should be fresh off a bye and invigorated by the chance to get back in the AFC North race.

Leans (24-24)

Carolina Panthers minus-3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Jumping aboard Carolina while the odds are still compressed with the skepticism if it's truly back closer to last year's Super Bowl level. The Panthers' biggest early problem — their defense — has looked shored up in two games since a bye, including giving up only seven total points in the first half.

New Orleans Saints minus-2 vs. Denver Broncos There couldn’t be a worse matchup for Denver’s dilapidated secondary than New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees and his deep receiving corps, which produced 10 pass-catchers in last week’s 41-23 blowout at San Francisco. With the Broncos having struggled against the run all season, this suddenly doesn’t look the defense that brought home the Super Bowl last year.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-2 vs. Houston Texans Not thrilled by having to side with mistake-laced Jacksonville — it squandered more than 200-yard advantage at Kansas City last week by committing four turnovers — but Houston’s offense is appalling. The Texans are last in the NFL in gaining 4.7 yards per play.

Seattle Seahawks plus-8 at New England Patriots Before Tom Brady returned, Seattle was only a 3-point underdog in this spot. It was almost inconceivable the Seahawks would ever get this many points this season, as they haven’t been this big of an underdog since play at San Francisco — a 13-6 loss — in Week 7 of Russell Wilson’s rookie season.

Chicago Bears pick’em at Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Bears are significantly better on offense on a per-play basis, gaining an average of 5.9 yards to the Buccaneers’ 5.1, and defense, giving up an average of 5.2 yards to the Buccaneers’ 6. Chicago is also healthier, making it inexplicable this line isn’t tilted more in its favor.

Guesses (24-28)

Green Bay Packers minus-2.5 at Tennessee Titans Packers will be the most lopsided-bet team on the board, but would need more than a field goal to roll with the Titans. If Green Bay plays close to its potential — which it admittedly hasn’t done often this season — it’s in a different realm than Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns plus-10 at Baltimore Ravens Browns have weakened to injuries, but it’s hard to erase the memory of them getting out to 20-0 lead on the Ravens in week 2. Baltimore hasn’t beaten any team by more than a touchdown, as its 21-14 triumph over Pittsburgh as closing 3.5-point favorites last week was its largest win of the season.

Los Angeles Rams plus-2 at New York Jets At least the Rams have a capable defense, which is surrendering only 5.1 yards per play to rank seventh in the NFL. That means they have one more useful unit than the Jets.

Miami Dolphins plus-4 at San Diego Chargers When the line looks exactly right but betting action is strongly shaded to one side, there’s value in going contrarian. San Diego has drawn nearly 80 percent of the early bets.

San Francisco 49ers plus-14 at Arizona Cardinals Never, ever going to feel comfortable laying two touchdowns in the NFL, especially not with a team that’s been flaky all season. Arizona’s unreliability is more of a factor than San Francisco’s ineptitude when the number bloats this big.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy