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March 28, 2024

NFL Playoffs by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of conference championships

Broncos-Steelers

Jack Dempsey / AP

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is sacked by Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker James Harrison during the second half of an NFL divisional playoff game Sunday, Jan. 17, 2016, in Denver.

Conference championship betting odds

What's the best bet on the board in the conference championship games?
Patriots minus-3.5 — 37.0%
Broncos plus-3.5 — 24.1%
Panthers minus-3 — 21.1%
Cardinals plus-3 — 17.8%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Through eight NFL playoff games this season, the underdog has won outright only once.

The lack of turmoil may have frustrated fans drawn to the league for parity, but it’s paying off with one of the most competitive pairs of conference championship games ever. Only three times have both semifinal matchups carried a spread of 3 points or less since the NFL adopted its current playoff structure in 1990.

The 2015-2016 playoffs shape up as the fourth with the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers each giving a field goal to the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals, respectively, in their quest to reach Super Bowl 50.

Talking Points’ mission is just as simple: The blog would like to get over .500 for the playoffs by hitting both games. After another 2-2 performance last week, I’m 4-4 for the playoffs to bring the season total to 137-118-9 picking every NFL game against the spread.

Check below for a betting preview and picks of the AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 12:05 p.m. Sunday on CBS

The line: Patriots minus-3. The bulk of the money is on the Patriots. The biggest of the money is on the Broncos. That explains how this line has gotten trimmed a half-point from the widespread New England minus-3.5 earlier in the week despite sports books reporting swarms of bettors turning out to take the Patriots. There’s not much of a history of home underdogs in the AFC Championship Game. There’s even less of a history of home underdogs in the AFC Championship Game succeeding. Since 1990, only two other home teams have taken points at home with a chance to go to the Super Bowl — the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 1992 Miami Dolphins. They lost to the Patriots and the Bills, respectively. But the Broncos covered each of their games as home underdogs this season, including when they took 2.5 points in a 30-24 win over the Patriots in week 12.

The matchup: A light beer or diet soda would make for the most appropriate presenting sponsor of the AFC Championship Game, because even though the contest is billed as Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, it’s a watered-down version. The 39-year-old Manning couldn’t relieve the sour taste left by his abysmal regular season in last week’s 23-16 victory over the Steelers, his first start in more than two months. Although Manning didn’t commit any takeaways for the first time this season, he still only threw for 222 yards and 6 yards per attempt — about 50 yards and 2 yards less than his career averages, respectively. And that was against an exploitable Steelers’ pass defense ranked in the bottom half of the NFL. The Patriots are much better in the secondary, with last year’s Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler transitioning into a true No. 1 cornerback this season and free safety Devin McCourty stifling opponents with his versatility.

Brady, 38, is much closer than Manning to his peak but he’s no longer the player who can take any spare parts and form them into the best offense in the league. There’s a reason the Patriots are 22-14-2 against the spread when tight end Rob Gronkowski plays over the last three seasons, as opposed to 6-10 against the spread when he sits out or gets hurt. Brady needs help, and he seemed to have plenty of it with both Gronkowski and receiver Julian Edelman healthy in a 27-20 victory over the Chiefs last week. New England was able to advance despite no sight of a running game — injuries have forced the starting job to fall to free-agent pickup Steven Jackson, the 32-year-old former Eldorado High standout — but that could become more of an issue against Denver’s top-rated defense in the league. The Broncos are the NFL’s No. 1 defensive team against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but only fourth versus the run.

Matchups like Gronkowski vs. Brandon Marshall are probably more important than Brady vs. Manning at this stage. They produce more pre-game hype, too. Marshall, the Broncos linebacker and Cimarron-Memorial High graduate who will often cover Gronkowski, accused the NFL’s best tight end of frequently getting away with offensive pass interference earlier in the week. But Brady vs. Manning 17 still sounds bolder, as the Patriots’ quarterback looks to cement his series preeminence in what will likely be the final meeting. Brady sits at 11-5 straight-up, 8-6-2 against the spread in games against Manning lifetime.

The pick: Broncos plus-3

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, 3:40 p.m. Sunday on Fox

The line: Panthers minus-3. The two teams that dominated the NFC for the better part of the season are dead-even. That’s what this point spread is implying, with the Panthers given the standard adjustment for home-field advantage and nothing more. The betting market dictated Carolina get more briefly, as it moved to minus-3.5 at several shops earlier in the week before sports books found buyback on Arizona. If the spread is to shift any more, it will likely go back in the Panthers’ direction. Public bettors are getting behind Carolina to a much larger degree than Arizona. Bookmakers faced more of a challenge with this line than most of the rest from this postseason. They had nothing to base it off of from earlier in the year. Somewhat amazingly, the NFC Championship Game is only the third non-rematch of the playoffs.

Click to enlarge photo

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Floyd (15) catches a tipped pass in the end zone for a touchdown as Green Bay Packers cornerback Casey Hayward (29) defends.

The matchup: For a pair of teams that had more or less clinched the NFC’s two postseason byes by week 10, neither the Panthers nor the Cardinals were all too inspiring in their playoff debuts. Both their opponents finished with higher performance grades by DVOA despite losing. Sure, Carolina was impressive in going up 31-0 over Seattle in the opening 20 minutes but then it apparently forgot football games consist of 30 more minutes. It proceeded to give up 6.2 yards per play to the Seahawks, which were nearly 2 yards more efficient than the Panthers for the game. It was the fifth time this season the Panthers were outgained, but they’ve managed to go 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in those contests. The Cardinals were also at a yardage disadvantage in their 26-20 victory over the Packers, which posted a 386-368 edge. Before chalking the discrepancy up to the two late-game completed Hail Marys by Aaron Rodgers, remember that the Cardinals received an extra possession in overtime that they converted into a touchdown for the victory. Playing a team they blew out 38-8 less than three weeks before, the Cardinals couldn’t mount the same pressure defensively or ignite offensively. They only notched three sacks-plus-quarterback hits and trudged to 5.8 yards per play, .5 below season average, with Carson Palmer throwing two interceptions.

The minor downside to Cam Newton’s superlative playmaking ability is the predisposition it creates for him getting sacked, so the turnovers look like Arizona’s more pressing issue against Carolina. The Panthers lead the NFL with a plus-20 turnover margin. The last team with a figure that high, the 2013 Seattle Seahawks, went on to win the Super Bowl. Sometimes a margin that gaudy is written off as lucky, but that might not work in Carolina’s case. The Panthers are in the NFL’s bottom 10 in recovering only 47 percent of fumbles. That means their takeaway prowess likely comes more from fielding a secondary of ballhawks like Josh Norman and Kurt Coleman, while also having linebackers athletic enough to excel in coverage like Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. All of them will be locked in intriguing matchups with the NFL’s deepest receiving corps as the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd and J.J. Nelson have been almost beyond reproach when clicking with Palmer.

Arizona still averages an NFL-best 8.2 yards per pass attempt, though that number has gotten dragged down recently. Combined with a significantly beaten-up defense, Arizona hasn’t been as dominant over the second half of the season. The Cardinals are just 3-5 against the spread with a plus-65 scoring differential in their last eight games. The Panthers are 5-3 against the spread with a plus-119 scoring differential. Either of these teams could wind up as the betting favorite in the Super Bowl depending how Sunday plays out, which is remarkable looking back to the start of the year. Carolina was 60-to-1 to win the Super Bowl before the season kicked off with Arizona at 30-to-1, leaving them both with the chance to go down in history as one of the longer-shot champions.

The pick: Panthers minus-3.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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