Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 17 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 29, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Many mocked Aaron Rodgers when he declared the Packers could, “run the table,” following an embarrassing 42-24 loss to the Washington Redskins in Week 11 that dropped the team’s record to 4-6.

Instead of laughing at Rodgers’ confidence, gamblers should have been betting on it. Green Bay has won five straight since, and anyone who maintained belief in the two-time MVP quarterback should have profited.

A hypothetical bettor who started with $100 and wagered on Green Bay to win every game since Rodgers’ suggestion while rolling over the winnings would be up to $2,300 in just more than a month. And he or she would be in the position to add another $1,100 this week if the Packers can win at Detroit as a minus-200 (risking $2 to win $1) favorite on the moneyline.

Handicapping mental states and motivation becomes important in many Week 17 games. Green Bay at Detroit won’t be that way.

Both teams will go all out, as the victor claims the NFC North championship and hosts a home playoff game next week. The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite.

They failed to cover once during their current five-game winning streak, a 30-27 victory at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites, but that’s the only blip on an otherwise memorable stretch that Rodgers predicted.

Check below for picks and analysis on all Week 17 games. The blog’s record picking every game on the year stands at 115-121-4 after going 10-6 last week. Picks are separated into three confidence categories, and lines are the best available currently in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (21-31-2)

Chicago Bears plus-6 at Minnesota Vikings Starting with their 20-10 victory over the Vikings in week 8 as 4.5-point underdogs, the Bears have been the better team. The better team shouldn’t get this many points under any circumstance.

Tennessee Titans minus-3 vs. Houston Texans Having been outscored by 42 points on the season, the Texans are one of the worst division winners in the history of the NFL. Having to rely on Titans backup quarterback Matt Cassel is a concern, but that’s why there’s a discounted price — too big of a discounted price.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus-5 vs. Carolina Panthers The Buccaneers only have the most minuscule of chances to reach the postseason, but they’re still going to play it through. That’s more than can be said for the Panthers, which already looked checked out of the season in last week’s 33-16 loss to the Falcons as 2.5-point underdogs.

New Orleans Saints plus-7 at Atlanta Falcons Bad luck has hurt the Saints all year, as their Pythagorean expectation is closer to nine victories than their actual seven victories. That’s left them undervalued — as evidenced by a 10-5 against the spread record — which is worth taking advantage of one final time.

Leans (43-42-1)

San Diego Chargers plus-6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Chargers’ four-game losing streak looks worse than it is considering they posted an overall yardage edge but continually saw bad breaks go against them. This is too many points because they’ll relish playing spoiler against a divisional rival.

Washington Redskins minus-7 vs. New York Giants Win, and Washington is in. With the stronger motivation and better players, it can only be Redskins or pass on this game.

Los Angeles Rams plus-6.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Disparity between last week’s results — the Rams’ 22-21 loss to the 49ers and the Cardinals’ 34-31 win over the Seahawks — inflated this point spread. Must sell high on the Cardinals, who have looked as inefficient as the Rams at times this season.

Miami Dolphins plus-10 vs. New England Patriots Miami is more of a bet-against team right now, but they’ve already confirmed they won’t rest their starters heading into the playoffs. The Patriots have given no such assurances, making this number way too high to lay with limited information.

New York Jets plus-3.5 vs. Buffalo Bills E.J. Manuel has thrown one more career interception than Tyrod Taylor despite having 324 fewer attempts. The Bills are inhibiting their chances by starting him, and a team inhibiting its chances is not one to back as a favorite on the road.

Seattle Seahawks minus-9.5 at San Francisco 49ers Seattle has beaten San Francisco by at least this many points in five straight meetings. The 49ers are 1-5 against the spread this season against teams with winning records.

Guesses (51-48-1)

Oakland Raiders plus-1.5 at Denver Broncos No team should play harder this week than the Raiders, which lock up a first-round bye with a victory. The Broncos have no motivation, and even more importantly, no offense as of late.

Green Bay Packers minus-3 at Detroit Lions Detroit overachieved all season until the last three weeks when it’s dropped every game against the spread in getting outscored by 10 points per game. Rodgers should have his way with a secondary that’s giving up 7.2 yards per passing attempt.

Baltimore Ravens plus-2 at Cincinnati Bengals The Ravens’ defense will be one of the NFL’s best units not in the playoffs. They held the Bengals to less than 5 yards per play in a 19-14 win as 3.5-point favorites last month, and it’s probably not going to get any better for Cincinnati on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts minus-4.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Jaguars are on a two-game against the spread winning streak, but they haven’t shown enough to shave 2.5 points off this spread after it opened as high as minus-7. Indianapolis’ scoring margin is nearly 100 points better than Jacksonville’s on the season.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Dallas has no incentive other than to get out of this game healthy, and yet it’s drawing 80 percent of the betting action. That’s a Texas-sized red flag.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-6 vs. Cleveland Browns The Steelers will rest their starters, but is their second-team any worse than the Browns’ first-team? It might be, but betting on this year’s Browns is an evil to be avoided.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.