Vegas pick’em: NFL week 16 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 22, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The biggest winner of week 16 is already determined, and it’s not sports books or sports bettors. It’s the NFL.

The league wrapped up a surprise during its schedule reveal in April by announcing it would bring back a pair of Christmas day games for the first time in a decade. No one could have imagined how well it would work out.

There’s an innate risk of week 16 matchups ending up insignificant, but the direct opposite happened with the Christmas games. The two biggest contests of the week fall on December 25.

No game has stronger playoff implications than Baltimore’s trip to Pittsburgh, which airs at 1:30 p.m. on NFL Network on Sunday. The Steelers clinch the AFC North division with a victory, while the Ravens would take over the lead with one game to go if they could beat their rivals for a second time this season.

Then, as a desert as satisfying as Santa’s cookies, the defending Super Bowl champions fight in an attempt to extend their season. The Denver Broncos would be all but eliminated if they can’t upset the Kansas City Chiefs in the nightcap, which airs at 5:30 p.m. on NBC.

Sports books will stir with a little more activity than normal as gamblers get their holiday fill. The NFL came through with a big, unexpected gift.

Read below for picks and analysis on all the week 16 games, separated as always into three confidence categories. Lines are the best on the chosen side currently available in Las Vegas. The overall record picking every game of the year stands at 105-115-4 after an 8-7-1 performance last week.

Plays (19-31-2)

New Orleans Saints minus-3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Saints were nearly a yard per play better than the Buccaneers when the teams faced off in Tampa Bay two weeks ago, but narrowly lost 16-11 because of a minus-3 turnover differential. They’ll be sharper in the Superdome.

Dallas Cowboys minus-7 vs. Detroit Lions Dallas’ four-game losing streak against the spread has unexpectedly made them a buy-low team. The betting market isn’t firing on the Cowboys as heavily as early in the season, deflating spreads like this one against the Lions that would have easily been more than a touchdown earlier in the season.

Leans (37-41-1)

Philadelphia Eagles plus-3 vs. New York Giants The Giants gave three points at home against the Eagles last month, and eked out a 28-23 victory despite getting outgained by nearly 150 yards. They haven’t done enough to command the same price on the road.

Houston Texans minus-1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals A decent quarterback was the main thing dooming Houston to a season much uglier than its winning record indicates. A single 1-point victory over the Jaguars is a small and questionable sample, but they might have found one in Tom Savage, who at least can’t be worse than Brock Osweiler.

Baltimore Ravens plus-5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers Feels unwise to lay more than a field goal in a series as traditionally closely contested as this one. The Ravens have beaten the Steelers in four straight and only lost by more than this point spread three times out of 20 meetings in coach John Harbaugh’s tenure.

Arizona Cardinals plus-8.5 at Seattle Seahawks Seattle is surprisingly one of the most schizophrenic teams in the league, which is not the preferred profile of a squad to back laying more than a touchdown. The Cardinals have already shown they can hang with the Seahawks in a (un)memorable 6-6 tie in week 7.

Buffalo Bills minus-3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins Yes, Dolphins backup quarterback Matt Moore looked every bit as effective as injured starter Ryan Tannehill in throwing for 13 yards per attempt and four touchdowns last week. But that was against a Jets’ pass defense rated dead-last in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Washington Redskins minus-3 at Chicago Bears The Bears have covered five straight to push up their power rating at the sports books. The Redskins’ backs are against the wall, and this would have been a value price on them just a few weeks ago.

San Francisco 49ers plus-4 at Los Angeles Rams Neither the 49ers nor the Rams have covered a game in December. They’re equally dysfunctional, so the home team should lay no more than 3 points.

Guesses (49-43-1)

Tennessee Titans minus-4.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars Have no interest in backing a Jaguars’ team turning to an interim coach (Doug Marrone) in a time of turmoil. The Titans are surging anyway and still slightly look like a bet-on team.

New York Jets plus-17 at New England Patriots It’s simply never profitable to lay this many points in the NFL regardless of the teams and situations. Even the feared Patriots under Bill Belichick are only 10-13 against the spread when giving 14 points or more on the betting line.

Oakland Raiders minus-3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts Number should be on the way up, so grabbing the slight value with the Raiders while it’s available. Traveling east to west on a short week isn’t a recipe for success in evenly matched game, let alone one where the home team is already superior.

Green Bay Packers minus-6 vs. Minnesota Vikings As giving up 6 yards per play to an average at best Colts’ offense last week suggest, the Vikings’ defense has regressed significantly since they beat the Packers 17-14 as 1.5-point underdogs in week 2. This spread feels a point or two too low.

San Diego Chargers minus-6 at Cleveland Browns During its eight-game losing streak against the spread, the Browns have failed to cover by an average of 8.5 points per game. There’s no reason to back them unless they’re getting an obscene amount of points.

Denver Broncos plus-3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs Half-point hook makes the Broncos the play. Everyone saw how evenly matched these teams were in Kansas City’s wild 30-27 overtime victory over Denver in week 12, so a line of 3 points on whichever team is at home should suffice.

Carolina Panthers plus-2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Stock couldn’t be higher on the Falcons as they’ve drawn nearly 90 percent of the action here after winning each of their last two games by 38 points. When in doubt, it’s better to sell high on a team and fade the public sentiment.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.