Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 15 winners against the spread

Lions-Vikings

Jim Mone / AP

Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford throws a pass Sunday, Nov. 6, 2016, during the first half of an NFL game against the Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis.

NFL Games 12/11/16

Philadelphia Eagles' Carson Wentz, left, is tackled by Washington Redskins' Ryan Kerrigan during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 11, 2016, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) Launch slideshow »

With an inordinate amount of dreadful teams at the bottom and only a couple squads differentiating themselves at the top, this year’s NFL playoff race might not be as exciting as usual over the final three weeks.

The awards race should make up for it. More specifically, the run towards Most Valuable Player honors should create compelling drama.

Some years, the recipient of the NFL’s highest award is virtually etched into the trophy by this time of the season. It’s almost always at least down to two or three contenders.

But the 2016 season is breaking from tradition, as the betting odds help indicate. Seven players are listed at 12-to-1 or less to win the MVP Award, led by New England quarterback Tom Brady and Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott with both at plus-275 (risking $1 to win $2.75).

A foursome of quarterbacks stalks, including the Falcons’ Matt Ryan and the Lions’ Matthew Stafford at plus-500 apiece. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is next at plus-750, with Oakland quarterback Derek Carr at plus-900.

Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell implanted himself into the conversation last week by going for 298 total yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo. Bell is now 12-to-1, and it might be foolish to count out another player making a similar push.

At those odds, Talking Points likes Ryan. He’s got an easy slate of pass defenses remaining, and the deeper voters dig into the statistics, the more impressive his season becomes.

Check below for picks on every Week 15 game separated as always into three confidence categories with lines being the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The blog’s overall record for the year stands at 97-108-3.

Plays (18-30-1)

Denver Broncos plus-3.5 vs. New England Patriots This spread would be hovering around a pick’em if the Broncos wouldn’t have lost virtual coinflips in two of their last three games by a field goal each. Sports Authority Field is never an easy place to play, which the Patriots know all too well after losing three of their last four there.

San Diego Chargers plus-3 vs. Oakland Raiders The Raiders came back from a pair of 8-point deficits to edge the Chargers 34-31 as 3.5-point favorites at home in the teams’ first meeting this season. There’s no reason to think the rematch won’t be just as competitive.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-6.5 at Houston Texans It’s never fun to back the Jaguars, but statistically, they’re more efficient than the Texans both offensively — 5.2 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play — and defensively — 5.2 yards per play allowed to 5.5 yards per play allowed. They certainly shouldn’t be getting nearly a touchdown.

Leans (34-39-1)

Minnesota Vikings minus-4 vs. Indianapolis Colts Colts haven’t seen a defense as strong as the Vikings’ since a 34-20 loss to the Broncos as 6-point favorites in Week 2. Minnesota is 4-1 against the spread at home this season.

New York Jets plus-3 vs. Miami Dolphins The Jets outplayed the Dolphins last month, racking up a yardage advantage but allowing a late kickoff return to lose 27-23 as 3.5-point underdogs. There’s no reason the Jets should be getting almost the same amount of points at home with Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill now sidelined.

New Orleans Saints plus-2.5 at Arizona Cardinals The Saints have struggled the last two weeks, but that was against two teams that are playing better than them. New Orleans has taken care of lesser competition all season, going 5-0 against the spread versus teams with losing records.

New York Giants minus-4 vs. Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford became only the latest casualty for the injury-ravaged Lions. That means no only are the Giants the better team, but they’re also the healthier team.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-6 at Baltimore Ravens Baltimore gains only 5.1 yards per play, making it one of the NFL’s 10 worst offenses. It’s too anemic to lay this many points against a respectable opponents.

Guesses (45-39-1)

Chicago Bears plus-7 vs. Green Bay Packers The Packers are going to be one of the most bet-on sides of the season, with early action already putting the value squarely on the Bears. This line has swelled 2.5 points since Green Bay’s 38-10 demolition of Seattle as 3-point underdogs last week.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers In a lost season, it feels like the Bengals will put everything they have into beating their archrivals. The Steelers have looked like the best team in the NFL over the last four weeks, but the competition leaves much to be desired and they won’t produce at that high of a level forever.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-5.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Both teams look like bet-ons down the stretch, but the Titans barely even picked up a first down in the second half of last week’s 13-10 win over the Broncos. The Chiefs’ defense could have a similar effect given how well it’s played during a 4-1 against the spread run.

Carolina Panthers plus-6.5 at Washington Redskins This is only the second time in the last two years that the Panthers have taken this many points on the betting line. It’s one thing when they’re this big of an underdog against a great defense at Seattle, but not quite the same up the road versus a so-so Washington stop unit.

Dallas Cowboys minus-6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tough one to call, but prefer to jump on the Cowboys with the spread veering below a touchdown. The Buccaneers’ one weakness has remained its rush defense, which is problematic playing against Ezekiel Elliott.

San Francisco 49ers plus-14 at Atlanta Falcons The 49ers have put up a league-average 5.2 yards per play the last four weeks, so they should at least be able to put up some points on a mediocre Falcons’ defense. There’s no reason to ever lay two touchdowns without extenuating circumstances — like a fired coach.

Seattle Seahawks minus-14.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams Dealing with a coaching change is demanding enough, let alone dealing with a coaching change on a short week before playing one of the better teams in the NFL. Rams interim coach John Fassel is too inexperienced to alleviate those concerns.

Buffalo Bills minus-10 vs. Cleveland Browns The Browns have failed to cover in seven games in a row without any seismic adjustment from bookmakers. Until that shift happens, there’s no choice but to keep picking against them.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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