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College football by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Week 2

Associated Press

BYU wide receiver Mitch Mathews reacts after scoring the game-winning touchdown during the second half of an NCAA football game against Nebraska on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2015, in Lincoln, Neb. Brigham Young won 33-28.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Sept. 11, 2015 | 12:23 p.m.

There’s an early contender for bad beat of the year in college football that only something extraordinary could possibly top.

Cut to those who were monetarily involved with BYU at Nebraska nodding their heads. The side was already decided before BYU senior Mitch Mathews came down with a final-second Hail Mary from freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum to beat Nebraska 33-28 as 7-point underdogs in the biggest highlight from week 1.

But the successful 42-yard heave into the end zone sent anyone who bet under 58 points into a rage with what looked like a sure thing turning to a loser.

Sports book patrons endured lesser swings in games across the nation for a fitting return to college football season. Talking Points benefited from another beat that had bettors groaning in frustration all across town.

Auburn was one of the more popular bets on the board as a 10.5-point favorite and it looked like sports books would take a hit when it went up 24-0 on Louisville. But the Cardinals stayed in the game and scored two touchdowns in the final six minutes to fall within the number in a 31-24 loss.

The BYU over and Louisville side are the types of cashes to remember when variance inevitably evens out and the breaks go the other way. Talking Points hopes to avoid the situations all together by making the right plays.

The blog started 8-4 against the spread picking the 10 biggest games of the week — including two bonus picks last week for the opening Thursday night — for a head start on our season-long goal of anything above 50 percent. That’s below profitability, which is 52.4 percent because of the house’s hold, but the target given the inherent profitability of forcing a wager on every big game.

Click through below for week 2 of the college football by the odds series.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oregon State plus-15.5 at Michigan, over/under: 45.5; 9 a.m. on ESPN

It’s almost as if Jim Harbaugh brought the West with him to Ann Arbor, Mich.

The former Stanford coach, who spent the first 13 years of his coaching career at various stops in California, opens his Michigan tenure with a second straight Pac-12 opponent before turning his focus to UNLV next week. Each challenge gets progressively easier, as this spread is a 21-point swing from the plus-6 Michigan closed in a 24-17 loss at Utah. Another three-touchdown difference in the Wolverines’ favor is likely for next week versus the Rebels.

The Harbaugh hype has drawn lopsided Michigan action for the second straight week after this line opened at minus-14. That could make the Wolverines a bet-against from a value standpoint.

Then again, taking a Pacific time zone team in an early kickoff in the East is never advisable — just ask Stanford backers from last week.

Conflicting indicators abound.

Pick: Oregon State plus-15.5 Beavers quietly have just as intriguing first-year coach in Gary Anderson, who’s 9-0 against the spread as a double-digit underdog through his career.
Notre Dame minus-12.5 at Virginia, over/under: 48.5; 12:30 p.m. on ABC

Notre Dame backers have never felt so carefree.

The Irish were covering their minus-8.5 point spread over Texas in week one before the first quarter ended and never allowed a hint of a scare in a 38-3 stomping. The victory was only the second time in three seasons that Notre Dame beat a point spread by more than three touchdowns.

Linebackers Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt led a defense that ranks first in the nation through one week in giving up 2.9 yards per play.

Virginia acquitted itself well on the point spread in week 1, scoring a late touchdown to cover plus-19 in a 34-16 loss to UCLA, but the defense was another story. The Cavaliers gave up seven yards per play to the Bruins, including 9.5 yards per pass attempt.

That figure could have Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire, who threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns on 19-for-22 passing, salivating. But it’s worth mentioning the sophomore came into the season with the reputation of a raw passer.

Pick: Virginia plus-12.5 A basic tenant of sports in general: Don’t overreact to the results of the first game.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Minnesota minus-6 at Colorado State, over/under: 54.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network

Rashard Higgins belongs on a short list of non-quarterbacks important enough to significantly shift a college football point spread.

The Colorado State receiver, who led the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns in his sophomore season last year, suffered what’s only been referred to as “a sprain” but is expected to play against Minnesota. The betting line has risen a point since it opened at some sports books, but that likely has more to do with the Golden Gophers’ season-opening performance than Higgins’ status.

Minnesota held its own as a 16.5-point underdog hosting TCU, losing 23-17. But the game never felt that close as TCU had 108 more yards and seven more first downs.

The Horned Frogs kept stalling at inopportune times. There was no halting of Higgins and the Rams, which stomped overmatched Savannah State and produced perhaps the most exciting point-spread finish of the first week.

Colorado State beat the 51-point spread in a 65-13 victory when freshman running back Izzy Matthews broke free for a 37-yard touchdown rush with two seconds left on the clock.

Pick: Colorado State plus-6 Skeptical of Minnesota’s right to lay almost a full touchdown against a competent opponent on the road.
Iowa minus-3 at Iowa State, over/under: 51; 1:45 p.m. on Fox

The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has emerged as one of the most reliable rivalries for close games and exhilarating sports book experiences.

It’s also made anyone who fires blindly on Iowa State wealthy. Despite coming in as an underdog for now a 16th time in the last 18 meetings — including 14 straight — the Cyclones are 13-4 against the spread and 11-7 straight-up against the Hawkeyes since 1997.

Six points or less have decided each of the last four meetings. They look evenly matched again with similar performances against game Football Championship Subdivision opponents in week 1.

Iowa State defeated Northern Iowa, which had upset the Cyclones in the most recent meeting, 31-7 as 10-point favorites. As an identical 10-point favorite, Iowa downed Illinois State 31-14.

Pick: Iowa minus-3 Recent history won’t matter with the mismatches up front, which the Hawkeyes should use to maul the Cyclones.
San Diego State plus-14 at California, over/under: 61.5; 2 p.m. on Pac-12 Network

The betting market prefers the aerial passing attack to the confrontational running assault.

These two teams couldn’t have much different approaches with Cal employing coach Sonny Dykes’ up-tempo Air Raid offense behind quarterback Jared Goff against San Diego State’s vintage ground game led by Donnel Pumphrey. The former is getting all the money, as the point spread has flown from as low as minus-7.5.

The Golden Bears and the Aztecs are uniquely positioned to slow each other’s modus operandi. San Diego State returns its entire secondary after giving up 6.5 yards per pass attempt last season, which ranked in the top 10 in the nation.

Cal couldn’t stop the pass at all in 2014, but was much better up front in limiting opponents to 3.9 yards per rush attempt.

Pick: San Diego State plus-14 Twelve of 13 Aztecs games’ have gone under the total — potentially making that the best bet in this contest — so they should be able to slow down the pace and stay competitive.
Oklahoma minus-1 at Tennessee, over/under: 63.5; 3 p.m. on ESPN

Were the Volunteers already focused on the Sooners or is the preseason hype behind them a case of over-exaggeration?

The answer to that question in regards to Tennessee’s week 1 win over Bowling Green likely dictates which way a bettor is leaning in this game. Tennessee managed to cover the 21.5-point spread in a 59-30 victory over Bowling Green, but it was anything but picturesque.

The Volunteers only held a 47-yard edge and allowed the Falcons, which threw for 424 yards, to hang around for most of the contest. The overlooked angle may have merit considering Tennessee has anticipated the Oklahoma showdown all offseason.

Tennessee fans see a victory as a way to return to prominence after three straight years of losing records both straight-up and against the spread before eking out a 7-6 in both categories last season. They also remember, in another case of misleading covers, the Volunteers hanging with the Sooners as 20-point underdogs last year until falling to a 34-10 loss in the fourth quarter.

Oklahoma linebacker Eric Striker wreaked havoc in the Tennessee backfield, and will once against test tackles Kyler Kerbyson and Brett Kendrick.

Pick: Oklahoma minus-1 Ever-so-slight lean on the Tennessee acclaim being more bluster than reality.
Wade Payne / AP

Kentucky plus-7.5 at South Carolina, over/under: 56; 4:30 p.m. on SEC Network

One week’s worth of results supported the preseason futures and win total markets’ bet-against opinion of the Gamecocks and Wildcats.

The SEC East rivals had the conference’s ugliest pair of victories. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier amazingly kept his visor on throughout his team’s 17-13 victory over North Carolina as 3-point favorites.

The Tarheels outgained the Gamecocks, but threw two interceptions in the end zone that proved the difference. UL-Lafayette managed to outgain and cover against Kentucky as 17-point underdogs in a 40-33 shootout.

Both teams had major defensive concerns after fielding leaky stop units last year, making South Carolina’s performance more encouraging. A new-look defensive line recorded four sacks for the Gamecocks. The Wildcats rarely stopped the Ragin’ Cajuns, which tied the game at 33 late in the fourth quarter.

Pick: South Carolina minus-7.5 Can’t call for a Gamecocks’ turnaround season and not pick them against a team that gave up nearly 500 yards to UL-Lafayette.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oregon plus-4 at Michigan State, over/under: 66; 5 p.m. on ABC

Sports bettors witnessed a rare sight last week with neither Michigan State nor Oregon covering in their season openers.

The two schools are among the most profitable plays over the last decade with Michigan State recording a 60-43-3 against the spread record since coach Mark Dantonio arrived nine years ago. Oregon sits at 65-40-2 in the same span.

The Ducks and Spartans must have exceptional years to keep up the covering pace with expectations as high as ever. They’re tied for seventh at 20-to-1 odds to win the national championship at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Therefore, the playoff implications of college football’s premier non-conference matchup can’t be overstated. Oregon gained serious steam when it defeated Michigan State 46-27 as 13-point favorites at home last season.

Three of four players to score a touchdown for the Ducks in that game — Royce Freeman, Devon Allen and Thomas Tyner — are back but the Spartans bring the headliner of this year’s game in quarterback Connor Cook. A 25-to-1 shot to win the Heisman, Cook is a rewarding 19-7 against the spread throughout his career in games where he’s taken the majority of the snaps.

Pick: Oregon plus-4 Switched out Michigan State at the last second — hey, it's a built-in excuse for not trusting my first instinct — and still can't get confident with either side.
LSU minus-4 at Mississippi State, over/under: 50; 6 p.m. on ESPN

Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott’s legs chugged his team into the national consciousness in this game last year.

Prescott accounted for 373 total yards, including 105 rushing on 22 attempts, to lead Mississippi State to a 34-29 win at Tiger Stadium as touchdown underdogs. With their success now hinging so heavily on Prescott, the Bulldogs want to limit their quarterback’s rushing attempts this season.

The plan didn’t get off to the best start as Prescott still finished as the leading rusher with 72 yards on only eight carries in a sluggish 34-16 victory over Southern Miss to start the season. The Bulldogs were 21-point favorites.

The showing was lackluster enough to move the spread in this matchup a point away from Mississippi State despite LSU not playing a game. Lightning canceled LSU’s opener against McNese State, leaving questions to linger about the viability of quarterback Brandon Harris.

Pick: LSU minus-4 Already went all-in with LSU.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Boise State minus-2.5 at BYU, over/under: 55; 7:15 p.m. on ESPN2

BYU will look to follow directly in its two direct Hail Mary-winning predecessors’ footsteps.

The two teams to win a game on a last-second Hail Mary last season, Arizona and Arizona State, used the momentum to come back with upset victories the next week. The euphoria of the victory over Nebraska has partially concealed one of the most depressing events of the season so far. BYU lost senior quarterback Taysom Hill to the third season-ending injury of his career.

Hill was the main reason BYU emerged as the most popularly bet team the day Golden Nugget released its Game of the Year lines in June. The Cougars saw all of their point spreads move towards them including this game, which opened at Broncos minus-6.

It’s curious that the downgrade from Hill to freshman Tanner Mangum, who completed six of 10 passes for 69 yards before the game-winner, resulted in virtually no movement on the line. That may have more to do with Boise State, which found moving the ball as strenuous as the actual Brigham Young’s pilgrimage to Utah in a 16-13 victory over Washington as 13-point favorites.

Boise State’s new starting quarterback, Ryan Finley, totaled only 129 yards with one interception on 16-for-26 passes.

Pick: Boise State minus-2.5 No reason Boise State shouldn’t lay an extra point or two.