Week 7 NFL game of the week and picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Oct. 25, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The Philadelphia Eagles have consistently left gamblers empty-handed this season.

With two straight wins and covers to even their straight-up and against the spread records at 3-3, it’s not so much how they’re faring. It’s more the way they’re playing.

The Eagles established themselves as a team that frequently eclipsed over/under point totals in coach Chip Kelly’s first two seasons, but they’ve traded in shootouts for something more like heavyweight wrestling matches in year three. They’re tied with the Steelers through six weeks of the season with five games going under the total.

It’s an unexpected culture change after Kelly’s teams previously went over in 20 of 32 regular-season games. The second-lowest total of the Kelly era, and smallest in more than two years, adorns Philadelphia in its Sunday Night Football game at Carolina tonight.

The over/under is set at 45.5 points for a game where the Eagles go into Bank of America Stadium as 3-point underdogs to the Panthers. The matchup between current NFC division leaders is the Sun’s game of the week, making it a required pick in the handicapping contest. The three competing sports writers must select six wagers off of the South Point betting board per week, with all of them listed at the bottom of the page.

Carolina has defied the betting market’s expectations too, albeit in a more traditional way. The Panthers are 4-1 against the spread with the only non-cover coming through the backdoor variety when the Saints scored late in in week 3 to lose 27-22 as 10-point underdogs.

As one of five NFL teams remaining undefeated, the Panthers are more than halfway to their preseason over/under win total of 8.5 at 5-0 on the season. The under went off the board heavily juice at minus-170 (risking $1.70 to win $1) at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook with bettors calling for the Panthers to fall back after winning the NFC South the last two seasons.

Anyone with an under 8.5 wins ticket must be cursing Carolina quarterback Cam Newton. Although his statistics may depict Newton as an average at best quarterback, Newton has done a remarkable job in energizing an otherwise lifeless corpse of an offense.

Consider that Newton’s top two receivers, Ted Ginn Jr. and Philly Brown, are most known as Ohio State punt returners. Starting running back Jonathan Stewart is averaging less than 4 yards per carry behind a mediocre offensive line.

Tight end Greg Olsen, who has 45 catches for 374 yards and three touchdowns, is the only skill player around Newton clearly above replacement level. Offshore sports books dropped Newton to a 6-to-1 third choice to win the NFL MVP — he opened the season at 50-to-1 — after leading Carolina to a 27-23 victory at Seattle as a touchdown underdog last week.

Defense has been just as vital to the Panthers’ success. Behind fourth-year pro out of Coastal Carolina Josh Norman emerging as a shutdown cornerback, Carolina is giving up only 5.8 yards per pass attempt.

Washington graduate Shaq Thompson had positioned himself for a run at Defensive Rookie of the Year consideration before spraining his knee against the Seahawks. Even without Thompson, the Panthers have one of the best linebacking duos in 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly and perennially underrated Thomas Davis.

The Eagles had no trouble figuring out the unit last year, beating the Panthers 45-21 as 7-point favorites. But their offense has regressed following Kelly’s much-publicized offseason makeover this season, gaining 5.4 yards per play to rank 20th in the NFL.

New quarterback Sam Bradford, the 2010 NFL Draft top overall pick the year before Newton assumed the role, has both nine touchdowns and nine interceptions.

The defense is making up for the troubles. The Eagles are one of only two teams — along with the Jets, which they beat 24-20 as 3-point underdogs in week 3 — rated in the NFL’s top five in both opponent’s yard per rush (3.5) and yards per pass attempt (16.2).

Despite losing planned linchpin Kiko Alonso — who the Eagles received from the Bills for trading LeSean McCoy — at linebacker to an ACL re-aggravation in week 2, the front seven has created mayhem.

Defensive end Fletcher Cox has already accounted for five sacks and three forced fumbles. Bennie Logan has risen as one of the best nose tackles in the league. The rare play that breaks through the first level is wrapped up veteran Pro-Bowl linebacker DeMeco Ryans and run-stuffing strong safety Malcolm Jenkins.

Unlike the Panthers, the Eagles were a popular bet to go over their win total in the preseason with the number rising from 9.5 to 10 at the Superbook. They may have hurt their chances by getting off to an average start, but going 8-2 the rest of the way to cash the over feels attainable— just not for the reasons anyone anticipated.

As bettors may have learned the hard way, Philadelphia is a defensively led team in 2015.

Check below for full picks in week 7 of the handicapping contest. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 20-14-2 (2-3-1 last week)

Chiefs minus-2.5 vs. Steelers

Texans plus-4.5 at Dolphins

Jets plus-8 at Patriots

Lions plus-2.5 vs. Vikings

Colts minus-4 vs. Saints

Panthers minus-3 vs. Eagles

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 16-17-3 (2-3-1 last week)

Bills minus-4.5 vs. Jaguars in London

Chiefs minus-2.5 vs. Steelers

Texans plus-4.5 at Dolphins

Vikings minus-2.5 at Lions

Redskins minus-3.5 vs. Buccaneers

Eagles plus-3 at Panthers

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 15-18-3 (2-3-1 last week)

Texans plus-4.5 at Dolphins

Jets at Patriots over 48.5

Falcons minus-6 at Titans

Redskins minus-3.5 vs. Buccaneers

Chargers minus-4 vs. Raiders

Eagles plus-3 at Panthers

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.