NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday’s Elite 8

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 28, 2015 | 2 a.m.

On this same Saturday a year ago, the overall top seed in the NCAA Tournament laid double digits in the Elite Eight while two of the nation’s other best teams battled in a near pick’em contest.

How little things can change in college basketball. Bettors are presented with an eerily similar scenario today, down to the two teams in the latter matchup being the same.

In the West Region finals, No. 2 seed Arizona gives No. 1 seed Wisconsin 1.5 points on the betting line in a game between the second- and third-highest power-rated teams in Las Vegas. The first, Midwest Region No. 1 seed Kentucky, tips off right afterwards and lays 11 points to No. 3 seed Notre Dame.

Arizona was a 3-point favorite against Wisconsin last year, and dropped a 64-63 overtime decision in a game that stirred wild ranges of emotion in sports books across the valley. The point spread came into play in the other game, as the top-ranked team in the land was Kentucky’s conference-mate, Florida, which beat Dayton 62-52 but failed to cover the 10.5 points.

Could history repeat? Find Talking Points’ picks for both games below, presented as always in order of confidence. The blog stands at 30-28-2 picking every tournament game, an inherently unprofitable strategy but one implemented to cover the whole tournament.

No. 3 seed Notre Dame plus-11 vs. No. 1 seed Kentucky The only figure involving the Wildcats’ season greater than the 787 points they’ve outscored opponents by this season is the number of pieces and segments devoted to how to beat them. Analysts have explored every possible avenue to cracking the undefeated record, the majority making little sense. But perhaps the most cited and rational path is getting hot from deep and pouring in three-pointers.

Notre Dame can shoot. The Irish’s 18-for-24 from the floor in the second half against Wichita State Thursday should have been a reminder. Many scoffed at the inflated percentage on social media, however, and used it as a reason for why Notre Dame stood less of a chance against Kentucky. They figured the Irish couldn’t shoot that well two games in a row. But here’s the thing — they can. They’ve proven it over the course of the season. The Irish lead the nation in 2-point field goal percentage, rank second in effective field-goal percentage and 18th in three-point percentage.

Concurrently, there couldn’t be a better time to sell high on Kentucky. It looked like the greatest team in college basketball history in a 78-39 dismantling of West Virginia Thursday. It was a game where, don’t forget, the line crashed to minus-13 with the Mountaineers garnering support. It was a bad number, but not bad enough to where Notre Dame should only get two fewer points on the spread. The Irish probably won’t beat the Wildcats, but they probably won’t get blown out either.

No. 2 seed Arizona minus-1.5 vs. No. 1 seed Wisconsin Two weeks ago at the Pac-12 conference tournament, a reporter asked Arizona coach Sean Miller about the possibility of grabbing a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. After starting to answer the question, Miller found himself derailed by a tangent. He started recounting last year’s game with Wisconsin, harping on even seemingly negligible details that may have led to the loss. Negligible details that there’s no way Wisconsin’s coaches and players could recall from the meeting.

The Wildcats have spent more time thinking about the matchup with the Badgers than the other way around. So much that it was easy to excuse their lackadaisical 68-60 win over Xavier in the Sweet 16 as 10.5-point favorites. It’s not as if Wisconsin channeled the showtime Lakers on the Staples Center floor either, as it delivered the worst beat of the regional semifinal round with a 79-72 victory over North Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite.

Miller will have his team, the nation’s third best defensively according to KenPom.com, ready to guard the Badgers ferociously. Wisconsin, which has the nation’s best offense, is capable of hitting shots anyway but Arizona should get the easier looks. The Wildcats are the slightly better team and expecting anything less than their best in a revenge spot to get to the Final Four is unwise.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.