Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

sports betting:

16 NCAA Tournament betting notes to know before wagering on the Sweet 16

UAB

David Stephenson / AP

UAB guard Denzell Watts acknowledges the fans as his team and he celebrate their win over Iowa State in an NCAA tournament second-round basketball game in Louisville, Ky., on Thursday, March 19, 2015. UAB won the game 60-59.

Many of the thousands of tourists who visited town to gamble on the NCAA Tournament last week departed with two things diminished — their egos and their bankrolls.

Sports books stymied bettors over the first weekend of March Madness. Although underdogs cooled off and only covered the spread in seven of 16 games during Saturday and Sunday’s round of 32, the damage was already done to the masses forever smitten with favorites.

Underdogs finished 27-21 against the spread from the first game Thursday morning to the last game Sunday night. Include the “First Four” play-in games and the record improves to 31-21.

How long has it been since favorites performed so poorly in the tournament? Find out below as part of our Sweet 16 betting nuggets. All odds are taken from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Come back to Talking Points tomorrow for picks on all of the games, which start Thursday evening.

• This is the first time underdogs have gotten out of the opening weekend with a winning record against the spread since 2010, when they eked out a 24-23-1 mark versus the number. It’s been more than 10 years since underdogs have cashed at this high of a clip before the Sweet 16.

• Despite underdogs’ point spread success, outright upsets have proven hard to find. There’s only been nine upsets since the field of 64 was set — 12 including the “First Four” play-in games — which is the fewest since 2008 when just six underdogs prevailed. The average for the first weekend in the six years in between was 12.5 upsets.

• Fewer points and a slower pace have afflicted college basketball all year. The betting market may not have adjusted enough going into the postseason. In over/under point totals, “under” is 27-23-2 so far in the tournament.

• The ACC, with five of six teams to make the tournament still alive, has dominated with an 11-1 straight-up record, but the conference is just 5-7 against the spread. The Pac-12, with three of its four teams left, has been far and away the best conference to bet on at 7-1 against the spread. The two remaining conferences that have cost bettors the most are the SEC, 2-6 against the spread, and the Big Ten, 3-8 against the spread.

• The most likely Final Four according to the odds consists of Kentucky, Arizona, Duke and Michigan State. The seventh-seeded Spartans made the biggest move, trimming from 12-to-1 to plus-160 (risking $1 to win $1.60) to win the East Region in the last week. The shift comes as a result of Michigan State knocking off No. 2 seed Virginia as 4.5-point underdogs while No. 1 seed Villanova fell to No. 9 seed North Carolina State as 9.5-point favorites.

• North Carolina State and Michigan State are tied for the biggest drops in odds to win the national championship. The Spartans are now 12-to-1 after opening 60-to-1 on Selection Sunday. The Wolfpack posted at 300-to-1 when the field was unveiled, but now rest at 60-to-1.

Click to enlarge photo

North Carolina State's Anthony Barber, right, shoots in front of Villanova's Daniel Ochefu during the first half of an NCAA tournament third-round college basketball game Saturday, March 21, 2015, in Pittsburgh.

• Contrary to declarations of highlight shows, North Carolina State did not pull off the “upset of the tournament” against Villanova. South Region No. 14 seed UAB beating No. 3 seed Iowa State 60-59 as 14-point underdogs remains at the top, according to the betting lines. With competition tightened, there’s virtually no chance of any potential matchup the rest of the way having as much as an opportunity to unseat the Blazers.

• None of the three most profitable teams to bet on season-long — Davidson, Villanova and Northern Iowa — advanced to the Sweet 16. That leaves West Region No. 2 seed Arizona as the best against the spread team at 23-13. Arizona coach Sean Miller is also a moneymaking 16-6-1 against the spread for his career in the NCAA Tournament.

• Here are three remaining coaches who have been an even better March Madness bet than Miller, who’s 8-5 against the spread at Arizona in the NCAA Tournament, in their current positions. Chris Mack, who replaced Miller at Xavier, has gone 7-1-1 against the spread with the Musketeers. Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall is 7-3 versus the number. And, finally, Mark Gottfried is 6-2 against the spread since taking over at North Carolina State.

East Region No. 4 seed Louisville is the last team in the field with a losing record against the spread. The Cardinals are 12-17-2 versus the number for the season. Only three teams in the last 20 years, the most recent being Kentucky in 2012, have cut down the nets despite a losing record against the spread.

• Duke bettors have enjoyed the least amount of suspense so far. The Blue Devils are one of six teams alive that have beat the spread in both of their contests, but they’ve done it with a tournament-high point differential of plus-48 and the second-highest covering margin of 16.5 points. West Region No. 6 seed Xavier covered by a combined 18 points, but most of its cushion comes from a 76-57 clobbering of Ole Miss as 2-point favorites in the round of 64. Xavier only topped the 7-point spread against Georgia State by one in a 75-67 round of 32 victory.

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Duke’s Justise Winslow, left, blocks a shot by San Diego State’s J.J. O’Brien during the first half of an NCAA Tournament basketball game in the Round of 32 in Charlotte, N.C., on Sunday, March 22, 2015.

• Duke and Xavier are, not surprisingly, two of three teams shooting dramatically better from the field in the tournament. The Blue Devils have converted on 58.7 percent of their attempts, up 8 percent from the regular season. South Region No. 11 seed UCLA has seen the second highest increase of 7.9 percent with a 52.4 field goal percentage in the tournament. Xavier has shot 54.4 percent from the field in two games as opposed to 47.6 percent in the regular season.

Midwest Region No. 1 seed Kentucky and Michigan State have overcome the biggest shooting slumps. Michigan State has gone 44.3 percent from the field, a decline of 2.7 percent. Kentucky is down 4.9 percent since the regular season, posting a field goal percentage of 41.7 or the lowest among all 16 teams.

• The opposite of Duke, Kentucky has been horrendous bet. The undefeated Wildcats are one of three teams left — along with West Region No. 1 seed Wisconsin and Midwest Region No. 3 seed Notre Dame — to go 0-2 against the spread. But Kentucky has failed by the largest margin, combining to fall 11.5 points short of beating the number in two games.

• For the self-aggrandizing segment, don’t forget Kentucky was one of our four tournament teams to fade in The Sunday’s March Madness cheat sheet story. The other three teams are all eliminated with the four collectively going 2-6 against the spread. All four teams to bet from the magazine, meanwhile, survived and went 5-3 against the spread through the round of 32.

• The Sweet 16 features two rematches this year: UCLA plus-8.5 vs. No. 2 seed Gonzaga in the West Region and North Carolina State plus-3 vs. Louisville in the East Region. As a refresher, Gonzaga stomped UCLA 87-74 on the road as 5.5-point underdogs in December. North Carolina State upset Louisville, 74-65, last month getting 10.5 points on the road.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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