Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas Play of the Day: Kansas vs. Baylor

NCAA Kansas Frank Mason III

AP Photo / Orlin Wagner

Kansas guard Frank Mason III

The South Point-lined Play of the Day is sitting at 3-1 on conference tournament picks. There’s no stopping in trying to build our starting $10,000 bankrolls on college basketball heading into the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas minus-1.5 vs. Baylor: $550 to win $500

Looking at the metrics and the two teams’ seasons as a whole, this is the right number. Baylor even has a couple decided advantages in rebounding and three-point shooting, areas in which Kansas has struggled recently.

But there are a couple of uncalculated edges that create slight value on the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals — coaching and semi-home court.

In a close game, Kansas coach Bill Self is far more reliable than Baylor counterpart Scott Drew. The sideline has a lot to do with why the Jayhawks are 16-3 straight-up and 11-8 against the spread versus the Bears the last 12 years, since Self and Drew both took over.

Kansas is also playing 600 miles closer to its campus, an aspect that shouldn’t be overlooked. Kansas City’s Sprint Center is annually packed with crimson and blue for an additional benefit.

Kansas was a 7.5-point favorite when it hosted Baylor earlier this year and covered with a 10-point victory. The Jayhawks also knocked off the Bears 56-55 as 3-point underdogs in Waco, Texas.

If Big 12 Player of the Year runner-up Perry Ellis plays — he’s a game time decision with a knee sprain — then this line looks more golden. If not, let’s gamble with Self and the Sprint Center.

Standings: Keefer (69-68-2, $10,437), Bern (68-62-1, $9,846), Brewer (60-73-3, $2,965)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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