Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Conference tournament betting odds and picks: Kentucky hovers above rest

KA Towns

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns, left, and Arkansas’ Bobby Portis battle for possession during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2015, in Lexington, Ky.

Like the bluegrass meadows surrounding its university, the buzz around the Kentucky basketball team sprawls well beyond sight.

The undefeated Wildcats are drawing rarefied acclaim from hundreds of miles in every direction. Las Vegas sports books bestowed the latest distinction on coach John Calipari’s bluest-chip roster.

Kentucky’s dominance stretches so far that the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook didn’t even bother posting odds on the other 13 teams in the SEC tournament, which begins this evening in Nashville, Tenn. The only SEC wager on the board is a glorified yes/no proposition bet asking if Kentucky wins its conference tournament.

The Wildcats are a minus-360 (risking $3.60 to win $1) with the rest of the overmatched teams collectively offered at plus-320 (risking $1 to win $3.20). The prices, after adjusting for hold percentage, denote better than a 77 percent chance that Kentucky goes into the NCAA Tournament next week looking to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to finish the year unbeaten.

The Superbook also currently lists Kentucky as a minus-120 favorite to win the national championship.

The SEC is the only conference tournament, within the last several years for that matter, without odds for more than one team listed.

Las Vegas hosts the second most likely conference tournament champion. Arizona is the second chalkiest choice on the board at minus-175, translating to a 52 percent chance to prevail in the Pac-12 tournament, which began at noon today inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

Click to enlarge photo

UNLV forward Goodluck Okonoboh (11) and teammate UNLV forward Christian Wood (5) fight to secure a rebound from Arizona center Kaleb Tarczewski (35) under the basket at the Thomas & Mack Center on Tuesday, December 23, 2014.

Most braceketology forecasts project Arizona as below a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but oddsmakers would have it entrenched on the top line. The Don Best Advantage power ratings, employed by the majority of local shops, has Arizona at No. 2 in the country behind only Kentucky.

Locals or tourists keener for tournaments perceived as more competitive can head down Tropicana away from the Pac-12 and toward the Mountain West. The Thomas & Mack Center-hosted event is one of the two most parity-stricken major tournaments, according to the lines.

The top three seeds — Boise State, San Diego State and Colorado State — are all virtual co-favorites in the Mountain West tournaments with winning probabilities ranging from 23.5 to 26 percent by the odds. Even UNLV is given a decent chance to salvage its season at a 6-to-1 price, implying just below a 12 percent likelihood of winning the tournament.

Find all of the remaining tournament odds below with picks on the nine major conferences bolded.

Note: It’s typically not profitable to play the futures market, and instead bet on one team’s moneyline while rolling over the winnings all through the tournament. But Talking Points has bucked the odds the last two years, labeling three wins apiece in 2013 and 2014. If you had bet $100 on every selection, you’d be up $1,850.

American Athletic Tournament

No. 1 seed SMU — plus-140

No. 3 seed Cincinnati — plus-350

No. 6 seed UConn — plus-350

No. 2 seed Tulsa — plus-700

No. 4 seed Temple — plus-700

No. 5 seed Memphis — plus-1000

Field — 60-to-1

ACC Tournament

No. 1 seed Virginia — plus-175

No. 2 seed Duke — plus-175

No. 3 seed Notre Dame — plus-600

No. 4 seed Louisville — plus-800

Field — plus-300

Atlantic 10 Tournament

No. 1 seed Davidson — plus-200

No. 2 seed Dayton — plus-300

No. 5 seed VCU — plus-300

No. 3 seed Rhode Island — plus-700

No. 4 seed Richmond — plus-1000

No. 6 seed George Washington — plus-1200

Field — plus-1000

Big East Tournament

No. 1 seed Villanova — minus-120

No. 2 seed Georgetown — plus-400

No. 3 seed Butler — plus-700

No. 4 seed Providence — plus-700

No. 6 seed Xavier — plus-700

No. 5 seed Saint John’s — plus-1200

Field — 100-to-1

Big Ten Tournament

No. 1 seed Wisconsin — minus-120

No. 6 seed Ohio State — plus-450

No. 2 seed Maryland — plus-600

No. 3 seed Michigan State — plus-600

No. 4 seed Purdue — plus-1500

No. 5 seed Iowa — plus-1500

No. 7 seed Indiana — 60-to-1

Field — plus-1500

Big 12 Tournament

No. 1 seed Kansas — plus-300

No. 2 seed Iowa State — plus-350

No. 3 seed Oklahoma — plus-350

No. 4 seed Baylor — plus-450

No. 5 seed West Virginia — plus-800

No. 6 seed Oklahoma State — plus-1500

Field — plus-450

Mountain West Tournament

No. 1 seed Boise State — plus-225

No. 2 seed San Diego State — plus-225

No. 3 seed Colorado State — plus-250

No. 7 seed UNLV — plus-600

No. 4 seed Wyoming — plus-1200

No. 5 seed Utah State — plus-2500

No. 8 seed New Mexico — plus-2500

No. 6 seed Fresno State — 60-to-1

No. 9 seed Air Force — 200-to-1

No. 10 seed UNR — 300-to-1

Pac-12 Tournament

No. 1 seed Arizona — minus-175

No. 3 seed Utah — plus-300

No. 2 seed Oregon — plus-800

No. 4 seed UCLA — plus-1000

Field — plus-700

SEC Tournament

No. 1 seed Kentucky — minus-360

Field — plus-320

Big Sky Tournament

No. 1 seed Montana — plus-120

No. 2 seed Eastern Washington — plus-180

No. 4 seed Northern Arizona — plus-600

No. 3 seed Sacramento State — plus-800

No. 5 seed Northern Colorado — plus-1500

No. 6 seed Portland State — plus-2500

No. 7 seed Idaho — 30-to-1

No. 8 seed Portland State — 30-to-1

Big West Tournament

No. 2 seed UC Santa Barbara — plus-250

No. 3 seed UC Irvine — plus-250

No. 1 seed UC Davis — plus-300

No. 4 seed Long Beach State — plus-450

No. 5 seed Hawaii — plus-800

No. 7 seed Cal Poly — plus-1200

No. 6 seed UC Riverside — 40-to-1

No. 8 seed Northridge State — 200-to-1

Conference USA Tournament

No. 1 seed Louisiana Tech — plus-200

No. 3 seed Old Dominion — plus-200

No. 2 seed UTEP — plus-400

No. 4 seed UAB — plus-500

No. 5 seed Western Kentucky — plus-1000

No. 6 seed Middle Tennessee — plus-2500

No. 11 seed Charlotte — plus-2500

Field — 50-to-1

MAC Tournament

No. 2 seed Buffalo — plus-240

No. 1 seed Central Michigan — plus-300

No. 4 seed Toledo — plus-300

No. 3 seed Kent State — plus-1500

Field — plus-300

Southland Tournament

No. 1 seed Stephen F. Austin — minus-200

No. 2 seed Sam Houston State — plus-250

Field — plus-500

Sun Belt Tournament

No. 1 seed Georgia State — minus-140

No. 2 seed Georgia Southern — plus-300

No. 4 seed Louisiana Lafayette — plus-400

No. 3 seed Louisiana Monroe — plus-1200

Field — plus-800

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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