Darryl Graham / AP
Friday, March 6, 2015 | 2 a.m.
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Four drivers have vroomed past the rest of the field through the first couple races in the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup.
Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick and Dale Earnhardt Jr. combined to claim eight of the 10 top-five finishes in the Daytona 500 and Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Expect to pay a premium on any of them at sports books going into the most gambled-on NASCAR event of the year — Sunday’s Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
The annual local race feeds its contemporaries exhaust fumes in terms of betting volume. The Kobalt 400 has accelerated into a March Madness practice lap for casinos, with visiting fans lining up deep at betting counters to create a similar scene to sports betting’s biggest weekend 13 days from now.
Bookmakers oblige with an abundance of gambling options — the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook alone offers nearly 100 ways to bet on the race, which are all listed at the bottom of the page — that heavily feature the four fast-starters this year. Harvick, who came in second at both Daytona and last week in Atlanta, is the 9-to-2 favorite to win here. Johnson, last week’s winner, dips to the second choice at 6-to-1 with Daytona champion Joey Logano and back-to-back third-place finisher Dale Earnhardt Jr. filing in close behind at 8-to-1 apiece.
History indicates it’s not sound advice to recommend going against the favorites at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Brad Keselowski’s win last year was in all probability the 13th straight year that a driver offered at 10-to-1 odds or less prevailed in Las Vegas.
While Keselowski darting past Earnhardt Jr. when the latter ran out of fuel on the final lap is remembered as the most exciting finish in the history of the track, it was also the most excruciating for bettors. Plenty of the 100,000-plus fans packed into the Speedway had tickets on either Earnhardt Jr., the annually most popularly-backed driver, or Keselowski.
They were the two biggest movers on the betting board, opening at 10-to-1 before going off at 7-to-1 by the time the green flag was waved. The betting market hasn’t handicapped the 2015 races as precisely.
Logano stuck at a price of 12-to-1 at Daytona. Johnson was an unwavering 7-to-1 fourth-choice at Atlanta.
Oddsmakers were the ones on point going back to the end of the 2014 season. Each of the final three races ended with the favored driver on top, including two victories by 2014 Sprint Cup champion Harvick.
Harvick is 5-to-1 at the Superbook to repeat as champion this season, behind only six-time victor Johnson, who’s had more success than anyone in Las Vegas, at 9-to-2.
He’s the only driver with four wins here, though his most recent was five years ago. Johnson was the favorite that day, leaving more risk-inclined gamblers disappointed.
It’s a recurring theme when NASCAR stops in Las Vegas.
Look below to find the full list of the Superbook’s betting options on this year’s Kobalt Tools 400. I’ve bolded a couple of my favorite wagers in each section.
Odds to win Kobalt 400
Kevin Harvick — 9-to-2
Jimmie Johnson — 6-to-1
Jeff Gordon — 7-to-1
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — 8-to-1
Brad Keselowski — 8-to-1
Joey Logano — 8-to-1
Matt Kenseth — 8-to-1
Carl Edwards — 10-to-1
Kasey Kahne — 12-to-1
Denny Hamlin — 15-to-1
Kyle Larson — 25-to-1
Ryan Newman — 30-to-1
Jamie McMurray — 40-to-1
Tony Stewart — 40-to-1
Clint Bowyer — 40-to-1
David Ragan — 40-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. — 40-to-1
Brian Vickers — 60-to-1
Paul Menard — 60-to-1
Austin Dillon — 100-to-1
Greg Biffle — 100-to-1
Regan Smith — 100-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger — 200-to-1
Aric Almirola — 200-to-1
Danica Patrick — 300-to-1
Trevor Bayne — 300-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. — 300-to-1
Sam Hornish Jr. — 300-to-1
Casey Mears — 500-to-1
Field — 300-to-1
Driver matchups
Kevin Harvick minus-155 (risking $1.55 to win $1) vs. Jimmie Johnson plus-135 (risking $1 to win $1.35)
Kevin Harvick minus-165 vs. Jeff Gordon plus-145
Kevin Harvick minus-200 vs. Brad Keselowski plus-175
Jimmie Johnson minus-130 vs. Jeff Gordon plus-110
Jimmie Johnson minus-165 vs. Brad Keselowski plus-145
Jeff Gordon minus-155 vs. Brad Keselowski plus-135
Dale Earnhardt Jr. minus-110 vs. Matt Kenseth minus-110
Dale Earnhardt Jr. minus-110 vs. Joey Logano minus-110
Dale Earnhardt Jr. plus-175 vs. Kevin Harvick minus-200
Matt Kenseth minus-110 vs. Joey Logano minus-110
Matt Kenseth minus-130 vs. Carl Edwards plus-110
Dale Earnhardt Jr. minus-130 vs. Carl Edwards plus-110
Jeff Gordon minus-155 vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. plus-135
Jeff Gordon minus-155 vs. Matt Kenseth plus-135
Brad Keselowski minus-110 vs. Joey Logano minus-110
Brad Keselowski minus-110 vs. Carl Edwards minus-110
Carl Edwards minus-155 vs. Kasey Kahne plus-135
Kasey Kahne minus-110 vs. Denny Hamlin minus-110
Carl Edwards minus-155 vs. Denny Hamlin plus-135
Kasey Kahne plus-145 vs. Joey Logano minus-165
Denny Hamlin plus-145 vs. Matt Kenseth minus-165
Ryan Newman minus-125 vs. Kyle Larson plus-105
Ryan Newman minus-130 vs. Clint Bowyer plus-110
Kyle Larson minus-125 vs. Clint Bowyer plus-105
Clint Bowyer minus-110 vs. Martin Truex Jr. minus-110
Martin Truex Jr. minus-125 vs. Jamie McMurray plus-105
Jamie McMurray minus-125 vs. David Ragan plus-105
David Ragan plus-115 vs. Martin Truex Jr. minus-135
David Ragan minus-125 vs. Tony Stewart plus-105
Tony Stewart minus-110 vs. Paul Menard minus-110
Tony Stewart minus-140 vs. Brian Vickers plus-120
Paul Menard minus-140 vs. Austin Dillon plus-120
Casey Mears plus-105 vs. Danica Patrick minus-125
Finish positions
Kevin Harvick: over/under 5.5
Jimmie Johnson: over/under 6.5
Jeff Gordon: over/under 6.5
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: over/under 7.5
Matt Kenseth: over/under: 7.5
Brad Keselowski: over/under 7.5
Joey Logano: over/under 7.5
Carl Edwards: over/under 8.5
Kasey Kahne: over/under 9.5
Denny Hamlin: over/under 9.5
Ryan Newman: over/under 12.5
Kyle Larson: over/under 13.5
Clint Bowyer: over/under 14.5
Martin Truex Jr.: over/under 14.5
Tony Stewart: over/under 16.5
Austin Dillon: over/under: 17.5
Greg Biffle: over/under 20.5
Danica Patrick: over/under 22.5
Props
Winning car number will be: 1-19 (plus-115) vs. 20-98 (minus-135)
Winning car number will be: Odd (plus-500) vs. Even (minus-700)
Total cautions: over/under 6.5 (over plus-110, under minus-130)
Total cars on lead lap: over/under 19.5
Total number of different drivers to lead at least one lap: over/under 9.5 (over minus-130, under minus-110)
Winning manufacturer: Chevy minus-200, Ford plus-400 or Toyota plus-300
Group matchups (pick which driver finishes best)
Group 1: Kevin Harvick plus-180, Jimmie Johnson plus-240, Jeff Gordon plus-250 or Dale Earnhardt Jr. plus-275
Group 2: Matt Kenseth plus-230, Brad Keselowski plus-230, Joey Logano plus-230 or Carl Edwards plus-240
Group 3: Kasey Kahne plus-195, Denny Hamlin plus-195, Ryan Newman plus-275 or Kyle Larson plus-285
Group 4: Clint Bowyer plus-220, Martin Truex Jr. plus-220, Jamie McMurray plus-240 or David Ragan plus-255
Group 5: Tony Stewart plus-220, Paul Menard plus-220, Brian Vickers plus-245 or Austin Dillon plus-250
Group 6: Regan Smith plus-230, Ryan Blaney plus-230, Greg Biffle plus-235 or A.J. Allemndingerplus-235
Group 7: Aric Almirola plus-195, Casey Mears plus-250, Danica Patrick plus-235 or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. plus-260
Group 8: Trevor Bayne plus-225, Sam Hornish Jr. plus-225, Ty Dillon plus-225 or Justin Allgaier plus-255
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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