NFL playoffs by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of wild-card weekend

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Jan. 2, 2015 | 2 a.m.

On a weekend with one of the biggest fights in years, the best card in Las Vegas might be found in the sports books.

None of the four NFL wild card games taking place Saturday and Sunday has a point spread of more than a touchdown. It’s a competitive start to a postseason that oddsmakers see as wide open.

Future odds give no single team better than a 30 percent chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy. Seattle is the favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook with a price of 9-to-4, which translates to nearly a 26 percent when accounting for the house’s hold.

The Seahawks are followed by the Patriots at 24 percent, the Packers at 14 percent and the Broncos at 12 percent. The Cowboys have the lowest odds of teams suiting up this weekend at 10-to-1, or roughly 8 percent.

Talking Points will continue analyzing and picking every NFL game through the playoffs, albeit under a slightly different format. The pick’em finished with a profitable 132-120-4 against the spread record looking at every game. I also narrowly edged Taylor Bern in the handicapping contest with a 56-44-2 record.

The lines are always tighter come playoff time, and this week’s slate looks especially challenging, but I’ll try to keep up the pace.

Check below for picks and analysis on wild card weekend.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, 1:20 p.m. Saturday on ESPN

The line: Panthers minus-6.5. The most profitable team in the NFL can’t find hardly any backers. Arizona has cashed more than anyone else this season, going 11-5 against the spread including 6-2 over the last half of the season. But this spread keeps moving against the Cardinals. Most sports books opened Carolina as a 4-point favorite last Sunday, though at least one shop posted minus-3.5, before the gradual climb began. There was faint hope that quarterback Drew Stanton would return for the Cardinals off of a knee injury until it became apparent they would have to turn to Ryan Lindley for a fourth straight start. Lindley expedited the line move as big bets poured in against him.

The matchup: Lindley’s actually been halfway decent — for betting purposes. In games where he’s taken the bulk of the work behind center, the Cardinals are 5-4 against the spread. That’s not going to appease any Cardinals’ fans, knowing he’s 2-7 straight-up. The former San Diego State star posted his best game last week, throwing for a career-high 316 yards on 23-for-39 passing in a 20-17 loss to the 49ers as 6.5-point underdogs, but still committed three interceptions.

The Carolina defense has made tremendous strides over the last month, or else Lindley may have quietly been primed for success. Three of their four contests in December went under the total — 37.5 in this game — with the Panthers giving up less than 11 points per game and 4.8 yards per play. Young cornerbacks Bene Benwikere and Josh Norman have progressed from a liability to a strength.

Carolina remains shaky against the run, giving up a fifth-worst 4.5 yards per attempt, but the question is whether Arizona has anyone to exploit the weakness. The Cardinals are dead last in the NFL with 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, a problem exasperated with the injury to starting running back Andre Ellington. Replacements Stepfan Taylor and Kerwynn Williams, a Valley High grad, have one rush of more than 10 yards between the two of them in the last two weeks.

The pick: Panthers minus-6.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 5:15 p.m. Saturday on NBC

The line: Steelers minus-3. The number might not have been as easy to make as it appears. Both teams closed as 2.5-point favorites at home in their pair of meetings during the regular season. With Pittsburgh finishing the season stronger — the Steelers won and covered in their final four as opposed to the Ravens going 1-3 against the spread but 3-1 straight-up — the extra half-point is reasonable. Sports books, however, tried to exercise due diligence and a few shops delayed posting the spread until getting more clarity on the status of Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell. When it never came — Bell remains questionable with a knee injury — oddsmakers almost unanimously posted the field goal. It was the right call as proven by the balanced action ever since.

The matchup: Ravens 49, Steelers 49. That’s the final combined score of the two games between the AFC North rivals this season. The series might not feel that well contested, what with the Steelers smashing the Ravens 43-23 in week nine after the latter trucked over the former 26-6 in week two.

It’s appropriate that, overall, the rivalry wound up as tight as ever in 2014. Pittsburgh is now 9-7 straight-up and against the spread against Baltimore under the current coaching staffs, but the Ravens have actually outscored the Steelers by seven points. Historically, the playoff meetings haven’t turned out as close. The Steelers, having the benefit of playing at Heinz Field on every occasion, have won and covered in all three meetings versus the Ravens in the postseason.

In the modern era of the NFL, few running backs are valuable enough to shift a betting line on their own. Bell might be one of them, with confirmation pending if he’s ruled active or not sometime within the next day. The NFL’s second leading rusher with 1,361 yards, Bell has put together a fabulous year with 854 receiving yards to boot. The Ravens, though, held him in check in both meetings as Bell mustered just 79 yards on 21 carries. The Ravens rank fifth in the NFL at rush defense, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, but a mediocre 15th against the pass. Passing for at least 300 yards in six of his last eight games, including torching Baltimore for 340 yards and six touchdowns, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is scarier than Bell anyway.

The pick: Ravens plus-3.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, 10:05 a.m. Sunday on CBS

The line: Colts minus-3.5. Indianapolis is getting more action. Cincinnati is drawer bigger bets. Reverse line movement has infiltrated Sunday morning’s showdown. The Colts first surfaced as a 4-point favorite when the matchup was set following the Bengals’ 27-17 loss to the Steelers in the makeshift AFC North championship on Sunday Night Football to end the regular season. The spread has headed South ever since despite reports of the majority of wagers coming in on the Colts. Currently, shops are split almost 50/50 at offering minus-3 or 3.5. Oddsmakers prefer to settle on one number or the other to avoid getting scalped — having the game decided by exactly three points and having to pay out plus-3.5 while refunding minus-3.

The matchup: It’s a wonder this game is attracting a large betting handle at all. Neither the Colts nor the Bengals have looked trustworthy down the stretch. They’re two of the bottom 10 teams in the NFL for variance, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, meaning it’s hard to predict how each team will fare on any given week.

After establishing themselves as the NFL’s best bet over the first half of the season, Indianapolis is only 3-4-1 against the spread since. More damning, the Colts have gotten blown out the last three times they faced playoff teams — 42-7 at Dallas as 3.5-point underdogs, 42-20 as 3-point favorites hosting New England and 51-34 as 5-point favorites at home against Pittsburgh. Quarterback Andrew Luck has regressed from his early MVP pace to throw as many interceptions, five, as touchdowns, six, over the last month. It’s not all Luck’s fault. He’s hamstrung by the lack of a running game with Trent Richardson plodding the rush offense into a 27th ranking in DVOA.

One of his only efficient games was against Cincinnati, though. The Bengals have DVOA’s 28th ranked rush defense, and it showed in giving up 77 yards on 14 carries to Richardson in a 27-0 loss at the Colts as 3-point underdogs in week 7. Dalton went 18-for-36 for 126 yards in that game against what’s proven to be a spotty secondary, 19th in the NFL at 6.8 yards per pass attempt, without top target A.J. Green healthy. Green hasn’t practiced this week either while going through the NFL’s concussion protocol. Dalton is only the second quarterback ever, behind Baltimore’s Joe Flacco, to lead his team to the playoffs in each of his first four years. But he’s also at risk of becoming the first quarterback to ever lose in the wild-card round for four straight years.

The pick: Bengals plus-3.5

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, 1:40 p.m. Sunday on Fox

The line: Cowboys minus-7. Not much movement to report here. Oddsmakers nailed this one like Tony Romo zipping a downfield bullet to Dez Bryant. A few sports books opened Dallas minus-7 and downgraded a half-point. Others, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook and Station Casinos, stuck with 7 but made the Cowboys Even money with the Lions coming back at minus-120 (risking $1.20 to win $1). The rest hung Dallas minus-6.5 and have held steady.

The matchup: The Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFL. They haven’t failed to beat a team by less than double digits, or not covered, since November. Tony Romo’s late surge into the MVP conversation makes sense considering he’s thrown 12 touchdowns to one interception and averaged 246 yards per game in December. It’s the most obscene streak a Dallas player has gone on since running back DeMarco Murray was briefly on pace to threaten Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record earlier in the year.

Murray finished 17th all-time with 1,845 yards. The balance of the Cowboys’ offense pushed them up to third in the NFL with 6.1 yards per play. But if there’s a unit to halt the attack, it might be the Detroit defense. After leading for most of the year, the Lions fell to third in defensive DVOA. The offense’s failure to launch, with just 4.9 yards per play, is more the culprit of their three-game against the spread losing streak.

Detroit quarterback Matt Stafford has been the opposite of Romo. He’s thrown for three touchdowns and three interceptions in the last three weeks, notching only 5.4 yards per passing attempt.

The pick: Lions plus-7

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.