Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Vegas Play of the Day: Florida State vs. Oregon

Arizona

AP Photo/Ben Margot

Arizona’s Tyrell Johnson, right, fumbles the ball as he is tackled by Oregon’s Ifo Ekpre-Olomu during the first half of a Pac-12 Conference championship NCAA college football game Friday, Dec. 5, 2014, in Santa Clara, Calif.

There’s no better way to kick off the New Year in the Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point and $10,000 starting bankrolls, than with a bet that’s been on my radar for months.

I hoped all season Oregon and Florida State would meet in the inaugural college football playoff, and it happens in the Rose Bowl a few hours from now.

Oregon minus-7.5 vs. Florida State: $550 to win $500

The only reasons I’ve heard for picking Florida State are anecdotal. Those have their place, but I prefer the analytical.

No matter how you chop up the numbers, one team is far better than the other. It’s the Ducks over the Seminoles.

Oregon has gained .7 yards more per play on offense. It’s given up .1 yards per play less on defense.

The Ducks blew out excellent challengers like UCLA, Michigan State and Stanford. The Seminoles snuck by mediocre opposition like Oklahoma State, Miami and Boston College.

Even the nation’s worst against the spread record, 3-10, somehow hasn’t convinced bettors that Florida State isn’t the team it was a year ago. So allow me to spell it out for you: The Seminoles are nowhere near the team that obliterated everyone in their path to win the national championship last season.

With seven covers in a row, Oregon is much closer to that team.

Quack. Quack.

Standings: Bern (61-52-1, $11,526), Keefer (56-60-2, $8,727), Brewer (54-58-3, $6,305)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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