Vegas Play of the Day: Texas A&M vs. Arkansas

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 27, 2014 | 2 a.m.

It’s no secret our Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point and $10,000 starting bankrolls, slogged through most of the year.

Everything’s changed now that it’s football season. Since the Hall of Fame game, the three sports writers in the competition are red-hot picking football games.

We’re a combined 20-8 against the spread. Enjoy it while it lasts, right?

Texas A&M minus-9 vs. Arkansas in Arlington, Texas: $440 to win $400

Perhaps the reason is just that I’m extremely doltish, but I can’t wrap my head around this line. The point spread makes no sense.

The Aggies were 11-point favorites in this spot all summer. By even the most skeptical accounts, they’ve surpassed all expectations to start the year.

So how did the line depreciate? The explanation is that Arkansas is also much better than expected.

That’s where I tend to digress. Most people touting Arkansas have mocked Texas A&M’s schedule, saying it’s beaten no one except South Carolina on opening night.

It’s true: Texas A&M has flattened overmatched Lamar, Rice and SMU. But it’s not like Arkansas is slaying giants.

The Razorbacks have taken down Northern Illinois, Texas Tech and Nicholls State over the last three weeks. In Arkansas' only tough game of the year, Auburn blew it out 45-21 despite playing without quarterback Nick Marshall for the first half.

Not to get too repetitive from my college weekend betting preview — too late? — but Texas A&M’s performance against the one tough team on its schedule so far was about 150 times better. There will come a time worth fading Texas A&M — likely next Saturday at Mississippi State.

But that time is not now.

Standings: Standings: Bern (47-38-1, $12,921), Keefer (44-44, $11,561), Brewer (39-45-3, $5,625)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.