NFL betting primer: Vegas odds, picks and preview of the NFC South

New Orleans should roll if preseason betting action is to be trusted

Superbook Posts Bets For Super Bowl XLVIII

Gamblers wait in line to place bets after Super Bowl XLVIII proposition bets were posted at the Las Vegas Hotel Superbook Thursday Jan. 23, 2014.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014 | 2 a.m.

Note: This is the final part of Talking Points' team-by-team preview of the NFC running all week. Check out part one here, part two here, part three here and the four AFC installments here.

Shortsightedness might be blinding bettors in sports books when it comes to the NFC South.

History indicates the NFC South is the most unpredictable division in the NFL. It’s the only division where each of the four teams — the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers — have won three titles apiece since the NFL realigned 12 years ago.

The preseason favorite has only prevailed in the division once in the last six years. Bettors are showing no caution, however, in gambling only on the runaway favorite this season.

“It’s all the Saints, and not really anyone else,” Westgate Las Vegas Superbook Executive Director Jay Kornegay said.

New Orleans has wedged itself into the top five most popular Super Bowl bets, getting bet down to 7-to-1 from an opener of 18-to-1. The Superbook had the Saints at plus-120 (risking $1 to win $1.20) to snag the NFC South title earlier this summer, but they’re not at minus-200 (risking $2 to win $1).

All the other teams are at lucrative plus prices, but still, Kornegay and his crew can’t give away betting slips on them.

“None of those teams have much support,” he said. “There are faults in all of those teams, and I think they’re seeing that.”

Read below for the final division betting preview of the 2014 preseason.

David Goldman / AP

Atlanta Falcons

2013 Against The Spread Record: 7-9 (4-12 straight up)

CG Technologies weeks 1-16 lines: Underdogs in eight games, favorite in six games with two pick’ems

Average spread: Falcons plus-.5 (biggest favorite: Week 12 minus-7 vs. browns; biggest underdog: Week 14 plus-6.5 vs. Packers)

Westgate Superbook odds to win the Super Bowl: 60-to-1

Westgate Superbook odds to win NFC: 30-to-1

William Hill odds to win the NFC South: 4-to-1

South Point over/under win total: 8.5 (over plus-140, under minus-160)

Kornegay’s report: “The Falcons have a lot of question marks, but I can see how some people would have some positive thoughts concerning Atlanta. We haven’t seen it. They are just one of those teams that doesn’t get a lot of support. They don’t have a very big fan base so you don’t see a lot of tickets even when they look better.”

Keefer’s take: Not even a season of “Hard Knocks”, which traditionally spurs betting action, could get bettors behind Atlanta. Maybe that’s because the HBO documentary series brought more light to the franchise’s shortcomings. Losing left tackle Sam Baker yet again for the season added to an already crowded injury list, which had previously compromised mostly of defensive players. Best-case scenario, the defense proves adequate and the explosive offense of quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones and wide receiver Roddy White carries the Falcon to a nudge better than .500. More likely, the defense remains a mess and everyone realizes the Super Bowl window closed with the NFC Championship Game collapse against the 49ers in 2012.

A bet: Falcons under 8.5 wins. Doubling down on one of my favorite unders on the board.
Bob Leverone / Associated Press

Carolina Panthers

2013 Against The Spread Record: 9-6-1(12-4 straight up)

CG Technologies weeks 1-16 lines: Favorites in nine games, underdogs in six games

Average spread: Panthers minus-1.5 (biggest favorite: Week 16 minus-7.5 vs. Browns; biggest underdog: Week 7 plus-4 at Packers)

Westgate Superbook odds to win the Super Bowl: 60-to-1

Westgate Superbook odds to win NFC: 30-to-1

William Hill odds to win the NFC South: plus-450 (risking $1 to win $4.50)

South Point over/under win total: 8 (over plus-130, under minus-150)

Kornegay’s report: “The Panthers have issues. They haven’t really done anything. I don’t expect much there. Their defense, I’m sure, will be one of the better ones again but their offense is still limited and they struggle to put points on the board.”

Keefer’s take: Every year, there’s an upstart playoff team from the season before that all the money comes in against. More often than not, especially in recent years, the money is wrong. The 2013 Indianapolis Colts and 2012 San Francisco 49ers saw preseason movements against them reminiscent to the Panthers’ this year. Both were Super Bowl contenders throughout the year and won at least one playoff game. Carolina won’t take many steps back defensively, not with one of the best fronts in the NFL and reigning Player of the Year Luke Kuechly at linebacker. Failing to more adequately address a lack of receivers in the offseason was concerning, but the Panthers got by with a ragtag cast last year. Kelvin Benjamin might be the rare rookie ready to be thrust into a No. 1 receiver’s role in his first year anyway.

A bet: Panthers to make the playoffs at plus-210. I want to make it clear that I’m not picking Carolina to make the playoffs. The Panthers are my first team out. But for this bet to be profitable, they only need to advance 30 percent of the time. They’ve got a better chance than that.
AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

New Orleans Saints

2013 Against The Spread Record: 8-8 (11-5 straight up)

CG Technologies weeks 1-16 lines: Favorites in 10 games, underdogs in four games with one pick’em

Average spread: Saints minus-2.5 (biggest favorite: Week 3 minus-10 vs. Vikings; biggest underdog: Week 15 plus-3 vs. Saints)

Westgate Superbook odds to win the Super Bowl: 7-to-1

Westgate Superbook odds to win NFC: 7-to-2

William Hill odds to win the NFC South: minus-160 (risking $1.60 to win $1)

South Point over/under win total: 10.5 (over minus-105, under minus-115)

Kornegay’s report: “You look at the Saints and they have this division and an easy schedule. The Saints look like they’re primed to do well again, and they’re betting that way.”

Keefer’s take: Not even when New Orleans won the Super Bowl did it have a team this well-rounded. The 2009 Saints relied on a transcendent offense and opportunistic defense. They won’t have to hide their defense in 2014. With Cameron Jordan, Curtis Lofton and Kenny Vaccaro, they have stars at every level. The Saints were perfect at home last year, and this season’s schedule is significantly easier. It’s the softest of any of the NFC contenders, meaning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is likely. No team wants to come into the deafening Superdome and face the onslaught of Drew Brees throwing both old staples like Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston and new toys like Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills.

A bet: Saints to win the Super Bowl at 18-to-1. These odds are long gone, but I locked this bet down months ago. Why pick something else when I’ve already made the ultimate pick on New Orleans>
Associated Press

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2013 Against The Spread Record: 6-10 (4-12 straight up)

CG Technologies weeks 1-16 lines: Underdog in 10 games, favorites in three games with two pick’ems

Average spread: Buccaneers plus-2.5 (biggest favorite: Week 8 minus-3 vs. Vikings; biggest underdog: Week 5 plus-7.5 at Saints)

Westgate Superbook odds to win the Super Bowl: 100-to-1

Westgate Superbook odds to win NFC: 50-to-1

William Hill odds to win the NFC South: 7-to-1

South Point over/under win total: 7.5 (over plus-120, under minus-140)

Kornegay’s report: “If you were to say maybe a team out of the three other than the Saints has some optimism, it’s Tampa Bay. With (coach) Lovie (Smith), (quarterback Luke) McCown and (running back Doug) Martin, they might have a balanced offense and could possibly make a little run at the Saints.”

Keefer’s take: McCown, a career journeyman, really fooled some unsuspecting bettors with his eight-game performance in Chicago last year. Placing the 35-year-old with two tall receivers in Tampa, Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, won’t automatically mean he’s going to continue to uphold gaudy statistics like 16 touchdowns to one interception last season. Confidence in Martin should also be tempered. How is everyone so sure he’ll go back to the rookie sensation from two years ago and not the struggling and hobbled back in year 2? Any hope for Tampa Bay should revolve around the defense with Lovie Smith coming in to coach up a unit that already has two of the best players in the league in defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and linebacker Lavonte David.

A bet: Buccaneers under 7.5 wins Tampa will likely be middling throughout the year, but best-case scenario for a fan is if it bottomed out and pulled something long overdue: Drafted a real quarterback prospect.