College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 2

A view of the deli in the race and sports book following an official opening ceremony for the Downtown Grand in downtown Las Vegas Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2013.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Sept. 5, 2014 | 10 a.m.

Balance prevailed from a betting standpoint over the first week of the college football season.

In 84 games, including the surplus of those pairing a Football Bowl Subdivision team against a Football Championship Subdivision opponent, 42 favorites covered and 42 underdogs covered.

It just may not have felt that way. That’s because week 1 concluded without the massive upset or two college football fans have come to expect to start the season.

Texas A&M and Temple got moderate-sized underdogs off to a fast start on Thursday’s opening night, going on the road to knock off South Carolina and Vanderbilt respectively. The Aggies closed at plus-10, and the Owls at plus-8.5 in local sports books.

Little did anyone know Saturday wouldn’t produce anything much more surprising, as UTEP winning at New Mexico as a 10-point underdog wound up as the biggest outright upset.

Talking Points isn’t complaining, as the blog shot out to a 6-4 start picking the 10 biggest games of the week against the spread. It’s inherently unprofitable to force a wager on every game, but the purpose of this blog is to preview the most significant action.

Read below for the betting preview of week 2.

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Kansas State minus-12 at Iowa State; over/under: 54.5, 9 a.m., Fox Sports 1

Contrary to popular belief, Iowa State’s 34-14 setback to North Dakota State last week barely registered as an upset.

The Cyclones were just a 6-point favorite against the Bison, which have won each of the last three Football Championship Subdivision titles. Kansas State is a living testament to the fact that a home loss to North Dakota State doom doesn’t portend future doom.

The Wildcats fell to the Bison as 13-point favorites last year before recovering to go 8-5 straight-up and against the spread. Kansas State came back more focused the next week, as teams that lose to a lower-level opponent often do, and smashed Louisiana 48-27 as an 11-point favorite.

Iowa State dresses up better as an underdog anyway, going 23-21-1 when taking points under coach Paul Rhoads. More alarming, the Cyclones have lost five of their last six at home.

Pick: Iowa State plus-12 Not sure how I got through week 1 without picking a home dog. Here’s the first of the year.
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

USC plus-2.5 at Stanford; over/under: 54.5, 12:30 p.m., ABC

My, how times have changed.

Stanford was the nuisance of national-power USC less than a decade ago, covering in each of the last three years of the coach Pete Carroll era in Los Angeles including outright upsets as 10.5- and 39-point underdogs. Now it’s USC that tries to wreck more-heralded Stanford’s season as the Cardinals are favored for the third time in four meetings.

The Trojans completed the objective last season, as USC beat Stanford 20-17 as 4-point underdogs. Overall, the underdog has covered in eight of the series’ last 10 meetings with four outright upsets in the last seven years.

This is an early-season mega-clash as both Stanford and USC are better than advertised in conventional polls, ranking fourth and sixth in Football Outsiders’ F/+ rankings respectively.

Pick: Stanford minus-2.5 I don’t think the Trojans lose another game the rest of the regular season, but they lose here.
AP Photo/Michael Thomas

Ole Miss minus-20.5 at Vanderbilt; over/under: 50, 1:30 p.m., ESPN

The Commodores put in a strong bid for worst performance of week 1, failing to cover by 40 points in a 37-7 home blowout to the Temple Owls.

The Rebels deceptively weren’t impressive either. Ole Miss beat Boise State 35-13 to cover the minus-9.5 line, but was embroiled in a 7-6 battle before the fourth quarter.

Senior quarterback Bo Wallace, a three-year starter, committed three interceptions. That’s the same number picked off by Temple against Vanderbilt, which included two by freshman Johnny McCray in three attempts.

Vanderbilt coach Frank Mason won’t reveal who will start at quarterback before Saturday afternoon. None of the three options are particularly inspiring anyway.

The Commodores’ defense, however, was surprisingly decent in holding the Owls to 4.3 yards per play. By comparison, Ole Miss surrendered 4.7 yards per play to Boise State.

Pick: Vanderbilt plus-20.5 About as excited as sitting through a five-hour math lecture over taking Vanderbilt, but the line feels a few points inflated.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Michigan State plus-12 at Oregon; over/under: 56.5, 3:30 p.m., Fox

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is officially the Heisman Trophy favorite.

Mariota joined Florida State Jameis Winston, who got off to a rough start last week, at the top of offshore betting boards at 11-to-2 odds. Mariota’s four touchdowns, three passing and one rushing, in a 62-13 win over South Dakota pushed him above Joey Harrington for the all-time Oregon record.

It wasn’t a bad start to the season for Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook either, as he went 12-for-13 for 285 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-7 victory over similarly outmanned Jacksonville State.

But both teams — yes, even Oregon — have even more NFL prospects on defense including cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olmu and linebacker Malone for the Ducks and cornerback Trae Waynes and defensive end Shilique Calhoun for the Spartans.

Pick: Under 56.5 points Torn on the side, but it feels like many of Oregon’s most significant games fall under the total. Sure enough, four of its last five meetings against ranked opponents have gone under.
AP Photo/Joe Raymond

Michigan plus-4 at Notre Dame; over/under: 56.5, 4:30 p.m., NBC

Caution: Those afflicted with an inability to keep calm during games or endure drastic swings should avoid betting on this contest.

This rivalry traditionally berths wild outcomes. With Notre Dame terminating the series after this year, it should go out accordingly.

Michigan’s 41-30 victory as a 4.5-point favorite last year was the first time in five meetings that the final margin was greater than a touchdown.

It was also just the fourth time in the last six meetings that the favorite won. Neither Michigan nor Notre Dame stressed its bettors much last week, as they blew out overmatched opponents en route to easy covers.

Michigan beat Appalachian State 52-14 to cover minus-28. Notre Dame, minus-20.5, routed Rice 48-17.

Pick: Michigan plus-4 Mostly clueless, but the teams look so evenly matched that I’d take the points with either side.
The Daily Herald, Mark Johnston / AP

BYU minus-1.5 at Texas; over/under: 46, 4:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1

Talk about a scenario to test my faith in my long-shot pick on Texas to win the Big 12 and potentially crash the four-team playoff.

The entire roster could have ridden actual Longhorns for a week and come out with fewer injuries than they did in a 38-7 season-opening win over North Texas. Quarterback David Ash is gone, potentially ending his career after a string of concussions.

Arguably the team’s best offensive player, center Dominic Espinoza, is also lost for the season to a broken ankle. The Longhorns’ hope now hinge on sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes, who went 1-9 at a 2A high school in his most recent starting experience.

And they’re going up against a Cougars team that lit them up by a score of 40-21 as 7-point underdogs last year behind nearly 400 total yards from returning dual threat quarterback Taysom Hill.

Pick: Texas plus-1.5 I’m too stubborn to jump off Texas this early.
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

Virginia Tech plus-11.5 at Ohio State; over/under: 47, 5 p.m., ESPN

No team has cost gamblers more money over the last three years than Virginia Tech.

Once a betting-board gem, the Hokies are now a cash swallowing pit. Only after a narrow cover as a 9-point favorite in a 34-9 victory over William & Mary last week did the Hokies improve to 13-26-1 against the spread since 2011.

Ohio State was one of the only teams with a closer call versus the number as it rallied for 14 points in the final nine minutes to beat Navy 34-17 as a 15.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes extended their regular-season winning streak to 25 games, but didn’t have much to celebrate after only outgaining Navy by 30 yards.

Virginia Tech, on the other hand, showed some positive signs including 106 rushing yards from freshman running back Shai McKenzie, which could come in handy if the storm forecasted for Columbus, Ohio, blows in Saturday night.

Pick: Virginia Tech plus-11.5 Flip-flopped my pick more times than I can count in this game. There are too many questions on both sides.
Sam Morris

San Diego State plus-16 at North Carolina; over/under: 60, 5 p.m., ESPNNews

North Carolina channeled the spirit of a reveler on the Strip who poured out of a nightclub at 4 a.m. and hit the first number he bet on at the roulette table last Saturday.

The Tarheels were equal parts sloppy and lucky in a 56-29 victory over Liberty where they failed to cover the 30.5-point spread. North Carolina’s two quarterbacks, Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky, combined to throw three interceptions.

The turnovers would have been more damning if the Tarheels hadn’t recovered seven out of a total eight fumbles in the game.

San Diego State, meanwhile, smashed Northern Arizona 38-7 to beat the minus-18 betting line behind 111 yards and two touchdowns from running back Donnel Pumphrey. And yet coach Rocky Long still insisted the Aztecs were capable of better after the game.

Pick: San Diego State plus-16 The first side I’ve actually liked since Stanford.
AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Colorado State plus-10 at Boise State; over/under: 58.5, 7:15 p.m., ESPN2

The days of Boise State’s dynasty may have drawn to a close.

The Broncos had covered against a major-conference opponent in a season-opening showcase for six straight years before 2013, including five straight-up wins. But they’ve suffered lopsided losses in the contests two years in a row after last Thursday’s 35-13 defeat to Ole Miss as 9.5-point underdogs.

If that’s not enough to register as a hint, then their 8-15 against the spread record in Mountain West Conference play should count. Colorado State, meanwhile, is a team on the rise in the Mountain West with an 11-4 against the spread record, including last week’s 31-17 upset of Colorado as 2-point underdogs, since coach Jim McElwain took over.

Alabama transfer running back Dee Hart, the former top recruit in the nation, was a major get for McElwain this offseason. Hart ran for 139 yards and two touchdowns against the Buffaloes.

Pick: Boise State minus-10 Hoped to get Colorado State around plus-13. At this price, Boise State is the play.
AP Photo/Eugene Tanner

Oregon State minus-10.5 at Hawaii; over/under: 59, 7:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

Sports book directors are forced weekly to act as the biggest fans of the team formerly known as the Rainbow Warriors on the mainland.

Given Hawaii’s uncontested late kickoff times and mediocre reputation, bettors typically chase their losses or look to make a big final score by taking the team playing against the Warriors. Casinos scooped a nice profit last week when Washington didn’t come close to beating the minus-17 number in a 17-16 victory at Aloha Stadium.

Hawaii even outgained Washington by nearly 100 yards in the loss. Although it hasn’t beaten a Pac-12 opponent since a road tilt at Washington State in 2009, Hawaii has covered in five straight games against the conference.

Pick: Oregon State minus-10.5 Beavers coach Mike Riley has done this trip enough to keep his team away from the Hawaiian pitfalls.