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March 29, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 10

Sports Books

Leila Navidi

The Race & Sports Book at the Hard Rock Casino in Las Vegas on Tuesday, March 13, 2012.

Talking Points college bet of the week

Talking Points NFL bet of the week

Florida State dented sports books’ bottom lines on a weekly basis during its national championship run last season, covering almost every regular season point spread no matter how high.

Bookmakers are getting to experience the other side this year. The Seminoles have been profitable for the house on almost a weekly basis, cresting last night when they beat Louisville 42-31 on the road as 3.5-point favorites.

One of the biggest line moves in a marquee game this season proved all for naught. The support for the Cardinals as a home underdog was staunch, particularly among those wagering the largest amounts.

Florida State posted as a 7-point favorite at Wynn Las Vegas on Sunday and almost immediately went down to minus-4.5. The support didn’t slow, trimming off another point all around town before kickoff.

With Louisville leading 24-7 early in the third quarter, it looked like another win for the professional bettors. But Florida State’s offense came alive to 2013 levels for one of the first times this season in the second half, racking up nearly 400 yards and rewarding anyone who took the favorite.

The game was a primetime reminder of the importance of getting the best number. Some have complained of a bad beat because Florida State scored with two minutes to go when all it really needed to do was the run the clock out.

But those who chased and took Louisville at plus-3.5 or plus-4 closer to kickoff were losing or pushing before the last touchdown anyway.

It was only Florida State’s second cover out of eight games this season, which has also benefited casinos, as the public had mostly stayed behind the defending national champions.

At 8-0 straight-up, No. 2 Florida State’s spot in the coveted top four of college football playoff rankings is secure. One team won’t be as lucky, as No. 3 Auburn and No. 4 Ole Miss battle in Saturday’s biggest matchup.

It’s one of 10 games analyzed and picked below. Looking at a handful of the biggest games every week, spanning all five major conferences, I’m 48-40-4 on the season.

Check out this week’s edition of college football by the odds below.

    • Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett (16) runs for a first down before being tackled by Penn State safeties Adrian Amos (4) and Marcus Allen (2) during the first quarter an NCAA college football game in State College, Pa., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

      Maryland plus-3.5 at Penn State, over/under: 48; 9:00 a.m., ESPN2

      Devastating losses come in a variety of forms.

      Penn State must have suffered one of the worst last week, taking Ohio State into double overtime as a 15-point underdog before the offense failed to match the visitor’s second touchdown and lost 31-24. It would be the quick choice for the most demoralizing loss of week 9 in the Big Ten — until remembering what happened with Maryland that morning.

      Taking on a somewhat punchless Wisconsin, which had failed to cover in five of six games on the season, Maryland disintegrated. Maryland’s previously serviceable offense failed to score until the final minute in a 52-7 pasting as 9.5-point underdogs.

      Quarterback C.J. Brown and receiver Stefon Diggs had connected at least five times in every other game, so it was unexpected to see them totally shut down until the meaningless 22-yard score. Penn State’s offense letting the team down was much more predictable.

      Quarterback Christian Hackenberg has regressed in his sophomore season, throwing for three more interceptions than touchdowns, and the Nittany Lions are 111th in the nation with just 4.6 yards per play.

      Pick: Maryland plus-3.5 Terrapins had covered in four straight road games before last week and are in a better position to bounce back.

    • North Carolina quarterback Marquise Williams passes against Georgia Tech during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Chapel Hill, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

      North Carolina plus-15 at Miami, over/under: 68.5; 9:30 a.m., ESPN Gameplan

      The narrative of Miami’s program potentially returning to its formal glory has been bandied about on multiple occasions over the last several years.

      The Hurricanes’ 7-0 start last season was the latest in a series of false alarms that the team was back. They promptly lost four of their final six games, finishing 4-9 against the spread, to prove otherwise and raise the cynicism to a level where no one was going to jump on Miami too soon without overwhelming evidence.

      The indifference towards the Hurricanes may force everyone to miss when they’re actually back. Could it be happening right now?

      At No. 16 in Football Outsiders F/+ ratings, Miami looks like it has its best team in years midway through this season, despite three losses. But the trio of defeats — to Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech —all came on the road against teams rated in the top 26 in the metric.

      The first two were also without star running back Duke Johnson at 100 percent off of ankle surgery. In the last month, Johnson is averaging 8.5 yards per carry as Miami has won and covered three of four.

      North Carolina is also on a run led by its offense, covering three straight games with quarterback Marquise Williams averaging 402 all-purpose yards per game in the span.

      Pick: Miami minus-15 All-in on the Hurricanes.

    • TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin (2) drops back to pass against Texas Tech on Oct. 25, 2014, in Fort Worth.

      TCU minus-4 at West Virginia, over/under: 72; 12:30 p.m., ABC

      Welcome to winter.

      Milan Puskar Stadium could convert on long odds to host the first marquee game of the 2014 season in snow as showers are in the forecast Saturday in Morgantown, West Virginia.

      Weather might be one of the only things that could slow a TCU offense ranking fourth in the nation at 6.9 yards per play. A loaded receiving corps that includes Josh Doctson, Kolby Listenbee and Deante’ Gray has helped quarterback Trevone Boykin throw for 330 yards per game.

      TCU remains unbeaten against the spread, the last team in the nation that hasn’t failed to cash a single ticket. West Virginia has covered two in a row —beating Oklahoma State 34-10 as 2.5-point favorites and Baylor 41-27 as 8-point underdogs — but the offense has largely played a secondary role compared to an improving defense.

      Cornerbacks Darryl Worley and Terrel Chestnut have helped give West Virginia its best secondary in coach Dana Holgorsen’s tenure, ranking 10th in the nation against the pass, according to Football Outsiders S&P ratings.

      Quarterback Clint Trickett and his cronies will continue to garner all the plaudits, but the Mountainers’ offense really just sits at an above-average 38th in the nation at 5.9 yards per play.

      Pick: TCU minus-4 West Virginia has looked great the past two weeks, but the performances have inflated its value.

    • Georgia fan Charles Leverette and his wife Lori Leverette, a Florida fan make their way around RV City Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2014 in their conflicting loyalty painted golf cart as they take in the sites across the street from EverBank Field. The Leverette's arrived in Jacksonville from their home in Gainesville on Saturday and were paying $50 a day to park in a holding lot with no facilities before they could move to RV City Wednesday morning ahead of the weekend's Florida/Georgia game in Jacksonville, Florida.

      Florida plus-13 vs. Georgia in Jacksonville, over/under: 48.5; 12:30 p.m., ABC

      There’s a reason Georgia is petitioning, appealing and generally doing everything it can to get previous Heisman-leading running back Todd Gurley reinstated for this game. The Bulldogs need him.

      Yes, freshman Nick Chubb has filled in admirably at 5.7 yards per carry. But juxtapose that with Gurley’s 8.2 yards per carry and a real difference emerges.

      Florida is the best team at stopping the run that Georgia has faced since Gurley was suspended for allegedly profiting off of signing autographs, giving up only three yards per rushing attempt. Florida’s disastrous 3-3 straight-up, 2-4 against-the-spread start to the season has way more to do with offensive ineffectiveness than any issues on defense.

      Each of the last four meetings between these two archrivals has been decided by a touchdown or less. Florida hasn’t taken this many points as an underdog in the series in at least 30 years.

      Pick: Florida plus-13 Too many points in a rivalry game of this magnitude.

    • ]Auburn's Jonathan Jones (3) intercepts a pass in the end zone to secure Auburn's 42-35 over South Carolina in an NCAA college football gameSaturday, Oct. 25, 2014, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

      Auburn plus-2.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 51; 4 p.m., ESPN

      Outrage over the initial college football playoff rankings was comically misguided and thoughtless.

      For one, the committee did an admirable job. They came shockingly close to power ratings in Las Vegas and advanced metrics. Football Outsiders F/+ ratings actually has Auburn and Ole Miss, No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, in the playoff rankings, as the two best teams in the nation.

      More importantly, the ranks mean nothing yet. And that’s painfully obvious with Auburn and Ole Miss squaring off against each other Saturday in what nearly amounts to an elimination game with both teams already having one loss.

      Neither the Tigers nor the Rebels are entering with particularly high spirits, either. Ole Miss had its first loss both straight up and against the spread in a 10-7 defeat as 4-point favorites at LSU last week.

      Auburn prevailed in a shooutout with South Carolina 42-35 but never neared the minus-18 point spread.

      Pick: Auburn plus-2.5 Trust the Tigers significantly more than the Rebels, particularly on offense.

    • Arkansas coach Bret Bielema walks the sideline during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Georgia in Little Rock, Ark., Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)

      Arkansas minus-10.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 62; 4:15 p.m., ESPN2

      The most discussed streak in the SEC is not the conference’s eight straight appearances, and covers, in national championship games but something far more negative.

      It’s Arkansas’ 16-game losing streak against conference opponents. Three years ago, the Razorbacks looked like a team on the rise, but they’ve crashed ever since former coach Bobby Petrino’s infamous motorcycle accident.

      Ending the slide has consumed new coach Bret Bielema, and he’s already come close with covers twice this year. A 10-9 loss to Alabama as 10.5-point underdogs and an overtime 35-28 defeat to Texas A&M as 9.5-point underdogs showed improvement.

      Knocking off the first top-rated team in the college football playoff rankings would be quite a way to break through. The matchup may present a problem, however, as Arkansas remains reliant on its explosive backfield of Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, both of whom are averaging six yards per carry.

      Stopping the run is one of Mississippi State’s biggest strengths, as it's fifth in the nation in Football Outsiders’ S&P in the category behind linebackers Benardrick McKinney and Beniquez Brown.

      Pick: Under 62 points Can’t settle on a side, so I’ll look towards both undervalued defenses keeping the scoring down.

    • Stanford defensive end Henry Anderson an NCAA college football game against Army on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2014, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

      Stanford plus-7.5 at Oregon, over/under: 55.5; 4:30 p.m., FOX

      It almost feels too appropriate that Oregon encounters Stanford on the week that the first-ever college football playoff rankings were revealed.

      The Cardinal, of course, is the team that’s held the Ducks out of a national championship opportunity the last two years. Stanford handed Oregon its only loss of the year in 2012, a 17-14 win on the road as 18.5-point underdogs, before repeating the performance with a 26-20 victory at home as 10-point underdogs last season.

      Some have expressed surprise on this year’s line being the lowest of the three, but it actually opened as high as minus-11.5 last Sunday. Big money has pushed it down a significant four points.

      While Stanford’s offense is likely more helpless than each of the last two years, Oregon’s struggles came against the defense. And the Cardinals’ defense is better, ranking second in the nation in giving up just 3.7 yards per play with one of the best linebacker duos in the nation in AJ Tarpley and Blake Martinez.

      Boosted by the offensive line getting healthier and the emergence of freshman Royce Freeman, Oregon has won and covered in three straight.

      Pick: Oregon minus-7.5 Next week will be the bet-against spot for the Ducks after they bring everything they can muster here.

    • UCLA defensive lineman Owamagbe Odighizuwa, center, is held by Colorado offensive lineman Daniel Munyer, right, as UCLA defensive lineman Eli Ankou follows the play in the second quarter of an NCAA football game in Boulder, Colo., on Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

      Arizona plus-6 at UCLA, over/under: 70.5; 4:30 p.m., FOX

      Not a single team in one of college football’s major conferences has shown more disregard for bettors’ money than UCLA.

      The Bruins are the anti-Horned Frogs, having gone 1-7 against the spread, including four straight non-covers. They were a popular bet in preseason futures, but public bettors have officially turned on them now.

      Reports indicate a ticket count of more than 2-to-1 in favor of Arizona, though the spread has actually increased from its minus-4.5 opener for some reverse line movement. That means the bigger money is on UCLA.

      Statistically, the teams are strikingly similar. UCLA is gaining 6.1 yards per play while surrendering 5.4 with Arizona sitting at 6.2 and 5.6, respectively.

      Arizona quarterback and Bishop Gorman graduate Anu Solomon has far outplayed UCLA counterpart and preseason Heisman candidate Brett Hundley with six more touchdowns and 400 more yards, despite one less game. UCLA could put Solomon to the test, however, with one of the best pass defenses he’s faced that features the pass rush of Owamagbe Odighizuwa up front and the shutdown cover skills Ishmae Adams in the backfield.

      Pick: UCLA minus-6 Keep thinking back to the last time UCLA came into a game this doubted — against Arizona State, when it won 62-27.

    • Nevada wide receiver Hasaan Henderson (12) gets pulled down by Hawaii defensive back Dee Maggitt (23) in the second quarter of the NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014, in Honolulu. (AP Photo/Marco Garcia)

      San Diego State plus-3 at UNR, over/under: 50; 7:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

      These two teams have embodied and benefited from the Mountain West Conference’s volatility this season.

      San Diego State and UNR were fourth and fifth, respectively, in preseason odds to win the conference but have emerged as the top two contenders in the West division. The Wolf Pack have inflicted most of their damage on the road, going a perfect 4-0 against the spread when away from Mackay Stadium. They’re just 2-2 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread at home.

      Third-year quarterback Cody Fajardo’s development as a passer has spurred a recent two-game win and cover streak. San Diego State, meanwhile, relies almost wholly on running back Donnel Pumphrey, a Canyon Springs graduate. Pumphrey has helped make up for a passing attack that ranks 119th in the nation per Football Outsiders by nabbing 989 yards and 12 touchdowns with an average of 6.9 yards per carry.

      The run-first philosophy has helped every San Diego State game go under the total this season. With injured quarterback Quinn Kaehler returning in their last game, this situationally sets up nicely for the Aztecs.

      They’re coming off of a bye week, while the Wolf Pack return to the mainland following a 26-18 win over Hawaii as 3-point favorites.

      Pick: UNR minus-3 Don’t generally like backing teams the week after a Hawaii trip, but must take the value with the clearly superior squad.

    • Utah quarterback Travis Wilson (7) looks down field in the third quarter during an NCAA college football game against Southern California Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

      Utah plus-5 at Arizona State, over/under: 58.5; 8 p.m., Fox Sports 1

      Bettors shouldn’t want to have to choose against either of these teams after their performances in October.

      The Utes and Sundevils managed to go an entire month without once failing to cover the spread. Arizona State barely even allowed for any drama, beating the number by an average of 20 points.

      Utah wasn’t as non-suspenseful, with an average of just six points difference between the closing spreads including games against USC and Oregon State that came down to the final seconds and overtime, respectively.

      Utes’ fans will be on the edge of their seats from the start in this one, as the team hasn’t beaten Arizona State since 1976. They did manage to cover against the Sundevils last season, losing 20-19 as a touchdown underdog, but that was the first time in three tries since the Utes joined the Pac-12 in 2011.

      This year’s game projects as more meaningful than any of the previous meetings, however, as the winner claims the top of the South division standings with just a couple conference games left.

      Pick: Arizona State minus-5 Incidentally picked a lot of favorites this week. Not used to that, but have a feeling it’s where the value lies in this week’s biggest games.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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