Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 8 winners against the spread

Dalton 2014

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green (18) and quarterback Andy Dalton (14) celebrate after the Bengals scored against the New York Jets in the first half of an NFL preseason football game, Saturday, Aug. 16, 2014, in Cincinnati.

Talking Points NFL bet of the week

Week 8: Packers at Saints

What's your pick in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority Poll Opinion this season: 4-4)
Packers +1.5 — 68.6%
Saints -1.5 — 31.4%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Just consider Talking Points the Cincinnati Bengals.

After a dominant start to the season, the Vegas pick ’em has lost overall in two of the past three weeks with a virtual push also mixed in. The overall record for picking every game now stands at 55-49-2, not all that unlike Cincinnati’s marks of 3-2-1 straight up and 3-3 against the spread.

We both have major challenges ahead of us in week 8. While I’m looking to stay above the 50 percent cutoff, the Bengals are hoping to regain the top spot of the AFC North division.

The Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens to reprise their week 1 affair, when the former went on the road to beat the latter 23-16 as 1.5-point underdogs.

Baltimore was up 16-15 late in the fourth quarter, but a deflected Andy Dalton pass landed in the hands of A.J. Green and the receiver took off for a 77-yard game-winning touchdown. Cincinnati needs to prove the result was no fluke — and it likely will have to do so without Green, who’s missed two straight games because of an injured toe.

Unlike the Bengals, who were shut out 27-0 at Indianapolis last week, I at least haven’t embarrassed myself. The plays and leans sections have continued as passable with three of the past four top-listed picks all cashing.

The guesses are where I’ve gotten into trouble, which is the nature of forcing a pick on every game. Like Leon Hall trying to play through a strained back this weekend, I’ll fight through and look to boost my record.

Check below for the picks, listed in three separate categories with individual records and come back Saturday for the weekly handicapping contest and game of the week column. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side as of press time in Las Vegas.

Plays (13-12)

Washington Redskins plus-10 at Dallas Cowboys Now’s the time to jump off the Cowboys, who are giving an NFC East rival double digits on the betting line for the first time in five years. If Washington can turn around an NFL-worst minus-9 turnover margin, which is not far-fetched with the benching of quarterback Kirk Cousins, it’s more than competent.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-3 vs. Indianapolis Colts After five straight wins against the spread, sports books have finally overadjusted on the Colts. The spread on this game was only Indianapolis minus-1 on last week’s early line at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook — and Pittsburgh minus-2 over the summer.

New Orleans Saints minus-1 vs. Green Bay Packers One-point loss hides how well the Saints’ offense played last week in gaining more than any other team against the Lions’ defense with 401 yards. They’ll be even more efficient in an urgent spot playing in the Superdome.

Chicago Bears plus-6.5 at New England Patriots Matt Forte is the best running back the Patriots have faced this season, which is bad news for a defense surrendering 4.4 yards per rushing attempt. The desperate Bears have looked far better away from home this season, going 3-1 straight up and against the spread.

Leans (24-16-1)

San Diego Chargers plus-8 at Denver Broncos A potentially tough spot for the home team coming off a flawless, emotional victory on Sunday night. No such concerns for the Chargers, who are coming off a loss and have covered in their past eight trips to Denver.

Atlanta Falcons plus-4 vs. Detroit Lions in London At No. 26 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, Detroit’s offense is not functioning well enough to overwhelm anyone. That includes the reeling and injured Falcons, who are rearranging their porous offensive line yet again. It can’t get any worse.

St. Louis Rams plus-7 at Kansas City Chiefs Defensively, the Rams appear to have two fatal flaws — an inability to contain mobile quarterbacks and stop vertical passing games. Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith is putting together another decent year but possesses neither of those characteristics.

Miami Dolphins minus-5.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars There’s always the fear of getting seduced by a small sample, but the Dolphins have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL in their past three games. The best teams in the NFL don’t get challenged by Jacksonville.

Tennessee Titans plus-2.5 vs. Houston Texans Data deviates from the prevailing perception that the visitors are far superior. Houston rates 23rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, just marginally better than Tennessee’s No. 26 standing. Charlie Whitehurst wasn't exactly providing titan performances, so the switch to Zach Mettenberger isn't a major concern.

Guesses (18-21-1)

Arizona Cardinals minus-2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Fear the public underdog. Avoid a public underdog traveling through three time zones with an inconsistent offense taking on an elite defense even more.

New York Jets minus-2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Extra days of preparation and rest after Thursday Night Football could go a long way for the improving Jets, who could also be sparked by the Percy Harvin acquisition. The Bills’ offense remains unimpressive even after a quarterback change.

Cleveland Browns minus-7 vs. Oakland Raiders A loss to the Jaguars should refocus the Browns, who seemed too high on themselves after earning “potential playoff team” buzz two weeks ago. Cleveland has played far better at home to begin with, not losing against the spread once at FirstEnergy Stadium this season.

Baltimore Ravens plus-1.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Grabbing the Ravens as an underdog while available as the line has shifted their way at several prominent offshore sports books. Baltimore’s defense might turn out as dominant as some of the franchise’s editions from the early 2000s.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus-2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings As two of the worst three teams in the league, according to Football Outsiders, both squads need to make improvements fast. Hunch is Tampa Bay had more of an opportunity to do so coming off a bye week.

Carolina Panthers plus-5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Hard to believe these were the two best defenses in the league a year ago, as Seattle is suddenly bordering on ordinary and Carolina is just plain terrible. Seahawks should win, but not interested in giving big number with a West Coast team traveling east for an early kickoff.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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