Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 5 winners against the spread

Green Bay Packers-Aaron Rodgers

The Associated Press

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) heads to the huddle with his offense in the first half against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, Sept. 28, 2014, in Chicago.

Talking Points must try to follow the advice of Aaron Rodgers this week and r-e-l-a-x.

Case Keefer's sports bets of the week:

Week 5: Texans at Cowboys

What's your pick in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Public Opinion this season: 2-3)
Cowboys minus-6 — 58.1%
Texans plus-6 — 41.9%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Rodgers implored Packers fans to remember those five letters after the team got off to a disappointing 1-2 start. Then he led Green Bay to a 38-17 victory as a 1-point favorite at Chicago in week 4 of NFL action.

With Rodgers and the Packers starting week 5 tonight with a home game against the Vikings, it’s the blog that needs to take a deep breath and trust in the process. I finally took a hit last week, going 5-8 picking every NFL game against the spread.

It was the first losing slate of the season, something that was inevitable to come but that I wanted to avoid for as long as possible. Another poor showing could expunge the cushion I built with strong picks the first three weeks.

The overall record now stands at 34-26-1. It’s doubtful I’ll ever match the early-season heights.

But that’s not something I should even think about; I should just relax.

Check below for picks on every game this week, separated as always into three categories with individual records on each.

Plays (7-7)

Atlanta Falcons plus-4.5 at New York Giants Offensive-line injuries are a concern for the Falcons, but not worth 4.5 points. This spread was a pick ’em a week ago, but the Giants’ 45-14 win over the Redskins has caused the market to overadjust in their favor.

Houston Texans plus-6 at Dallas Cowboys J.J. Watt might be better than the best defensive player in the NFL. He might just be the best player. Watt and his cronies — it’s too bad Jadeveon Clowney is still a few weeks away from returning — are the perfect collection to test a suddenly respected Dallas offensive line.

Denver Broncos minus-7 vs. Arizona Cardinals Arizona is extremely fortunate to have started 3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread. Denver is significantly unlucky to be 2-1 straight up, 0-3 against the spread. Initiate course correction.

Leans (16-9)

Buffalo Bills plus-7 at Detroit Lions Not at all convinced that this spread shouldn’t have lowered — instead of going up a half point at some books — with the announcement of Kyle Orton taking over for E.J. Manuel at quarterback. Going to Orton makes the Bills, which already boast a great defense, a bet-on team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-10.5 at New Orleans Saints News flash: New Orleans is not good enough to give double digits to any team in the NFL. Let alone a division rival — one that was a popular bet in the preseason nonetheless — revitalized by a comeback victory last week.

New England Patriots plus-1.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals After declaring the Patriots play better when doubted last week, it would feel short-sighted to ditch that belief after the situation only turned more dire. The Patriots haven't gone into a game as a home underdog in eight seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-7 vs. St. Louis Rams Can’t shake an instinct that says the Rams, despite their 1-3 straight-up and against-the-spread record, have overperformed and the Eagles, despite their 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 against-the-spread record, have underperformed. Therefore, this line is a point or two lower than it would be in just a couple of weeks.

Kansas City Chiefs plus-6.5 at San Francisco 49ers How could I pick against Alex Smith in his revenge game? In all seriousness, the 49ers look disjointed with constant, careless mistakes and actually rank one spot lower than the Chiefs in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Guesses (11-10-1)

Carolina Panthers minus-2.5 vs. Chicago Bears Whispers out of Carolina indicate this might be the week the team turns banged-up quarterback Cam Newton loose. That would be an added headache for a Bears defense that’s already giving up 6.3 yards per play, which is fifth worst in the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings plus-9 at Green Bay Packers Green Bay is more than capable of torching this number if it plays like it did in last week’s 38-17 pasting of Chicago. Look at the season as a whole, however, and the two teams are more evenly matched than the spread hints.

Baltimore Ravens plus-3.5 at Indianapolis Colts Clearly have a poor read on the Colts, which have way outperformed my expectations. But the Ravens’ defense is going to present a much stiffer challenge than the Titans and Jaguars the past two weeks.

New York Jets plus-6.5 at San Diego Chargers Oddsmakers are scrambling to adjust their ratings on the Chargers, which have started 4-0 against the spread. They may have gone too far as the Jets’ defense, surrendering a third-best 4.8 yards per play, can keep the team in the game while Michael Vick could conceivably take over for Geno Smith at any moment to help the offense.

Seattle Seahawks minus-7 at Washington Redskins Before getting too carried away with the narrative that Seattle isn’t the same away from home, realize that the Seahawks are 13-7 against the spread on the road since Russell Wilson became their quarterback two years ago. Not sure which way to go here, but snagging the value with the number as this should close at minus-7.5 minimum.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Luckily it’s now October, a month in which Jacksonville managed one cover last season. The Jaguars haven’t beaten the spread in September since 2012. But Pittsburgh has never covered in Jacksonville as a favorite.

Tennessee Titans minus-1 vs. Cleveland Browns Jumping off of Tennessee faster than you can say ‘Chattanooga’ if there’s a complication with quarterback Jake Locker’s recovery and Charlie Whitehurst happens to start again. As is, this is a bet against Cleveland, which seem to be a trendy sleeper despite arguably the NFL’s worst defense — ranking 31st giving up 6.4 yards per play and 29th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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