Vegas Play of the Day: Bowling Green at Toledo

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 | 9:47 a.m.

My free fall in the Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point and $10,000 starting bankrolls, continues.

I’m turning to the Wednesday night MAC-heavy college football betting board for assistance.

Toledo minus-6 vs. Bowling Green: $440 to win $400

Wins and losses can only go so far in accurately illustrating teams’ seasons. Bowling Green and Toledo are close to even in the standings at 7-3 and 6-4, respectively.

By those results, a 6-point line for the home team is understandable. By every other measure, Toledo should be a bigger favorite.

The Rockets don’t play much defense, but neither do the Falcons. Both are giving up 6.1 yards per play to opponents.

Offensively, this is mismatch. Toledo is among the nation’s most explosive teams with quarterback Logan Woodside, who’s expected to return from an injury, and running back Kareem Hunt helping the team gain 6.2 yards per play.

Bowling Green rates out average at 5.6 yards per play.

Intangibles strongly favor Toledo. While Bowling Green has already wrapped up the MAC’s East Division, Toledo is trying to keep pace in the ultra-competitive West, where three teams have one conference loss.

The Glass Bowl is not an easy place for visitors to come in and steal a victory, even before considering the desperation of the home team. I’ll gladly lay the points tonight.

Standings: Bern (54-48-1, $11,286), Keefer (46-57-1, $6,181), Brewer (46-55-3, $3,105)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.