College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 12

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Alabama defensive back Cyrus Jones (5) and defensive back Jabriel Washington (23) break up a pass intended for LSU wide receiver Malachi Dupre (15) in the end zone on fourth down in overtime to end the game during an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Nov. 8, 2014. Alabama won 20-13

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 | 1 p.m.

The king of NFL bad beats this season found an identical sibling in college football last weekend.

Alabama’s 20-13 victory at LSU as 6.5-point favorites was maddening for Tigers’ bettors and sports books, which took more action on the visiting Crimson Tide, alike. It followed the classic path of overtime devastation.

LSU played within the point spread the entire game and appeared poised to go up a touchdown with less than a minute remaining when it recovered a fumble at Alabama’s six-yard line.

The Tigers drew a debatable flag for a personal foul, however, on the first play of their possession that pushed them out of the red zone. They were forced to settle for a field goal to take a 13-10 lead with 50 seconds to go.

Then, of course, the Crimson Tide pulled off something akin to hitting a five-team parlay to convert on their miniscule chances at the cover. They got to start their drive at the 35-yard-line after an illegal procedure on the kickoff, went 40 yards in seconds, made a 27-yard field goal with shaky kicker Adam Griffith and won the overtime coin toss.

Offense, Alabama naturally chose to play. It scored a touchdown right away and held LSU without a single yard on the other side.

A handful of overtime bad beats like that present themselves every year, but it’s always more overt in a big national game like LSU vs. Alabama where the betting handle is high. The loss set Talking Points back, dooming the blog to a 5-5 week.

After some internal accounting — the numbers from the last few weeks didn’t add up — the overall record on the season sits a game worse than previously thought at 60-48-2 against the spread. That’s still well above the goal of anything better than 50 percent, given I’m picking the 10 biggest games of the week, including at least one from every major conference, with no filter.

Check below for this week’s college football by the odds preview and picks.

Clemson minus-2.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 60; 9 a.m., ESPN

The ACC Contenders’ Comeback Bowl kicks off Saturday’s slate of games.

Both teams clinging to hope of advancing to the ACC Championship Game get back one of their most valuable players at Bobby-Dodd Stadium after spending the last three games without their services. Georgia Tech, one game behind Duke in the Coastal Division, coped without running back Zach Laskey much better than Clemson, one game behind Florida State in the Atlantic, managed in missing freshman quarterback DeShaun Watson.

The Tigers won all four games since Watson went down in the first quarter against Louisville but also failed to cover in all of them. The Yellow Jackets went a perfect 4-0 both straight-up and against the spread without Laskey.

The emergence of backup Synjn Days helped Georgia Tech keep its offense potent without Laskey, as it’s the second most efficient in the nation according to Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings. With Clemson’s defense ranking first behind the nation’s best defensive end Vic Beasley, it’s a true battle of strengths.

Pick: Clemson minus-2.5 Watson hasn’t failed to cover in a single game where he’s taken the majority of the snaps.
Ohio State minus-14 at Minnesota, over/under: 56.5; 9 a.m., ABC

Be careful labeling this a letdown game for either side.

If that logic is applied to one team, it must also be extended to the other, with both the Buckeyes and Golden Gophers coming off of wins that rate among the respective programs’ biggest in recent years.

Ohio State put itself firmly back in the playoff picture with a 49-37 victory at Michigan State as 3.5-point underdogs, its sixth cover in seven games. Minnesota kept pace in the Big Ten West Division by hammering Iowa 51-14 as 1.5-point underdogs, improving to 6-0 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread at home this season.

Playmakers will be spread all over the field at TCF Bank Stadium. Everyone knows about Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett and running back Ezekiel Elliot, but Minnesota boasts some big talent of its own. Running back David Cobb averages better than five yards per carry, and receiver Maxx Williams pulled down three touchdowns against Iowa.

The question is if the conditions will slow them down. Minnesota gathered volunteers to shovel snow off the field earlier this week, and more is in the forecast for Saturday. Temperatures are expected in the mid-20s at kickoff.

Pick: Minnesota plus-14 This line has climbed from as low as minus-12, illustrating that the betting public doesn’t give Minnesota the credit it deserves.
Mississippi State plus-9.5 at Alabama, over/under: 52; 12:30 p.m., CBS

A battle preceding the one on the field has started to play out in the sports books.

All the big money is on Alabama, pushing the point spread up 2.5 points over the last week. But the majority of the tickets are coming in on Mississippi State, meaning the smaller bets are backing the Bulldogs.

It’s sharps versus squares, pro versus joes, or so they say.

Support has never wavered on the Crimson Tide in Las Vegas, as they’ve been the top power rated team for months. Mississippi State has fallen off a bit, from starting the season 5-1 against the spread to laboring to 0-3 in its last three games.

Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen admits the Crimson Tide have more blue-chip players on their bench than he has on the entire team.

Alabama is fourth in the nation in giving up 4.4 yards per play with a defense loaded in every position. Players like defensive end Jarran Reed, linebacker Reggie Ragland and safety Landon Collins could give Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott challenges that he hasn’t seen in his Heisman-caliber season.

Another concern for the team sitting at No. 1 in the college football playoff rankings is Alabama’s dominance at Bryant-Denny Stadium, where its 4-0 straight-up, 2-2 against the spread but has outscored opponents 194-33 this season.

Pick: Mississippi State plus-9.5 Would have taken Alabama at a touchdown, but the line has spiraled out of control to create slight value going the other way.
Washington plus-9.5 at Arizona, over/under: 59.5; 12:30 p.m., Fox

Had this game taken place a month ago, the Wildcats and Huskies would have been lauded as the Pac-12’s two surprise contenders.

Arizona was even in the national championship conversation after knocking off Oregon 31-24 as 21.5-point underdogs to start the season 5-0. Washington started 5-1, battling Stanford and upsetting California in its first two conference games.

But odds hinted both teams might not be quite as strong as they seemed — Arizona was 2-3 against the spread to Washington’s 3-3 — and things have played out that way over time. Since the hot starts, both teams are trending the opposite way and have gone 1-3 against the spread.

Arizona is giving up an alarming 5.5 yards per play on defense, but that’s not much of a concern compared with Washington’s 4.7 yards per play on offense.

And that’s with leading rusher Shaq Thompson reportedly headed back to predominantly play linebacker against Arizona. The Wildcats haven’t covered in a home game since their season-opening 58-13 victory over UNLV.

The home team in this series, however, has beaten the number in six straight years.

Pick: Washington plus-9.5 Prefer to have nothing to do with this game, but if forced, I’ll take the better defensive team getting nearly double digits.
Nebraska plus-6.5 at Wisconsin, over/under: 57; 12:30 p.m., ABC

The Huskers and Badgers present the best running back matchup of the season.

Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon leads the nation in rushing at 1,501 yards, but Nebraska’s Ameer Abudllah edges him in all-purpose yards at 1,691. Gordon is second at 1,584 yards.

Only one of them can take their team out of this weekend with a lead in the Big Ten West division. The betting market can’t decide which one it’s going to be, at least not with the point spread.

Wisconsin opened as low as minus-4, getting to bet to a full 7 early in the week. Money on the underdog Nebraska has the line once again trending downward closer to kickoff.

Part of the reason for the moment was the status of Abdullah, who came into the week in doubt after tweaking his knee two weeks ago. Positive reports have come out ever since indicating Abdullah is ready to go.

He’ll be facing one of the best run defenses in the nation as Wisconsin, behind linebackers Derek Landisch and Joe Schbert, is allowing just three yards per rushing attempt. Nebraska appears a tad more exploitable for Gordon at 3.7 opponent rushing yards per attempt.

Pick: Wisconsin minus-6.5 Badgers’ roll, which includes three straight covers, continues.
Utah plus-8.5 at Stanford, over/under: 43; 3 p.m., Pac-12 Network

Perhaps the Cardinal and Utes can gather at midfield for a quick counseling session before kickoff.

Both teams need to move past getting thumped by Oregon in their last games out. Stanford fell 45-16 as 7-point road underdogs in week 10 before Utah couldn’t cover plus-9.5 at home in a 57-21 loss.

The good news is no other teams have scored like the Ducks on either the Cardinal or Utes. Stanford is tied for second in the nation at giving up just 4.1 yards per play, while Utah slides in at No. 30 at 4.9 yards per play.

Utah had covered and gone under in four straight games before encountering Oregon. The run had helped take some pressure off with the program already bowl eligible for the first time in three years.

Stanford still needs one more win to ensure they don’t miss a bowl game for the first time in six years. It’s senior night at Stanford Stadium, where departing stars like linebacker A.J. Tarpley and receiver Ty Montgomery surely remember last year’s 27-21 upset loss at Utah as 7.5-point favorites as one of the worst moments of their career.

Pick: Utah plus-8.5 Another extremely tough game to call, but Stanford is too strapped to score points to trust with a big number.
Auburn plus-2.5 at Georgia, over/under: 68.5; 4:15 p.m., ESPN

Change strikes fast in college football. Think back to just two months ago, a time when Mississippi State was unranked in the major polls and Texas A&M was considered a real playoff contender.

Elsewhere in the SEC, Georgia boasted the nation’s top player in running back Todd Gurley and Auburn had the longest against-the-spread winning streak. Both of those traits have been absent for the two teams embroiled the South’s oldest rivalry ever since.

The Tigers have suddenly gone from printing money to burning it, failing to cover the spread in five of seven games. Gurley hasn’t played in four games after getting suspended for signing autographs, though the Bulldogs seem to have dealt with their adversity more steadily.

They’ve gone 3-1 straight-up and against the spread without Gurley, who makes his return Saturday. Georgia should have ended Auburn’s cashing streak — which extended to 13 before Kansas State covered plus-7 in a 20-14 loss earlier this year — prematurely at six last year with a 2-point lead as a 3-point underdog in the final seconds.

Alas, “the Prayer at Jordan Hare,” where Ricardo Louis took a tipped pass 73 yards for a touchdown, burned Bulldogs bettors everywhere — including in this blog.

Pick: Auburn plus-2.5 Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is too sharp to let his team stay down for too long after last week’s 41-38 loss to Texas A&M as 21-point underdogs.
Texas minus-3 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 47.5; 4:30 p.m., Fox

It’s dry season in the Midwest this week — at least in football.

Great matchups have poured through the Big 12 recently, but it’s dire when the forecast calls for a game this mediocre as the conference’s showcase this Saturday. One good is guaranteed to come out of Texas at Oklahoma State: Someone leaves bowl eligible.

This is the last big chance for both teams, as Oklahoma State closes with road games at Baylor and Oklahoma where it will get more than two touchdowns on the betting line. Texas will only get a little more respect from oddsmakers hosting TCU in its regular-season finale.

The Longhorns have played their best in the last two weeks, winning and covering in contests against West Virginia and Texas Tech. The Cowboys wish they could say the same. Oklahoma State is headed in the opposite direction, toiling in a four-game against the spread losing streak while going 1-3 straight-up.

In one of the stranger trends of any college football series, the road team is favored in this matchup for the sixth straight year. The previous five road favorites have all covered and won, dating back to 2009.

Pick: Oklahoma State plus-3 Lesser of two evils is not laying points on the road with a mediocre Texas team coming off of a big win.
Florida State minus-3 at Miami, over/under: 61.5; 5 p.m., ABC

Last year, the typical reaction in sports books was questioning how the line on this rivalry could be so high. This year, the query has turned to how it can be so low.

Florida State posted as a 21-point favorite over Miami last season, and blasted the Hurricanes 41-14. That Seminoles’ team was a point-spread juggernaut, going 11-3 against the spread with ease.

This year’s team has been fortunate to go 2-7 against the spread. The betting market has overvalued Florida State all year, and sure enough, is back on it this week with a ticket count of more than 3-to-1 in the Seminoles’ favor.

A few sharp bettors have voiced that going off of power ratings alone and ignoring the public sentiment would have Miami, not Florida State, as the short favorite in this spot.

Miami quietly has better statistics on both offense, behind freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya and junior running back Duke Johnson, and defense, with versatile senior linebackers Denzel Perryman and Thurston Armbrister. Miami is gaining 6.9 yards per play to Florida State’s 6.1. The Hurricanes are giving up 4.4 yards per play as opposed to the Seminoles’ 5.1.

Pick: Miami plus-2.5 ‘Canes win outright. Feel confident on this one.
LSU plus-1 at Arkansas, over/under: 48; 5 p.m., ESPN2

For the first time in more than two years, Arkansas projects to take the field as a favorite in an SEC game.

It’s a long time coming for the Razorbacks, which have lost 17 straight conference games. They’ve stayed competitive for the most part, however, in going 7-10 against the spread in the losses, including a pair of close defeats but covers against rival LSU in each of the last two years.

Despite not winning an SEC game this season, Arkansas has the best against-the-spread record in the conference at 7-2. LSU is right behind at 7-3, despite last week’s kerfuffle.

Expect a lot of rushing as neither LSU quarterback Anthony Jennings nor Arkansas signal caller Brandon Allen have proven capable of airing it out. The Tigers lean on Leonard Fournette and Terrence Magee as much as the Razorbacks let Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams lead the way.

Pick: Arkansas minus-1 ‘Backs expunge the losing streak for once and for all.