Vegas Play of the Day: Bowling Green at Akron

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 | 1:05 p.m.

At this point, I’m going to ask, no beg, that I’m judged on my weekly football betting columns and not the Play of the Day.

I’m having a successful football season, but it hasn’t translated to our South Point-lined daily contest. My $10,000 starting bankroll sits at a record low to start November.

Akron minus-5.5 vs. Bowling Green: $330 to win $300

Bowling Green hasn’t played in 17 days. Who knows how the Falcons will come out after such a lengthy layoff?

On the optimistic side, the defense can’t play much worse. The Falcons are 117th in the nation, giving up 6.4 yards per play against Football Championship Subdivision opponents.

They have five wins, but three came by less than a touchdown and another was against Football Championship Subdivision punching bag Virginia Military Institute.

It’s easier to trust the home team coming off of a manageable layoff, 10 days, with a more proven coach in Akron’s Terry Bowden over Bowling Green’s first-year Dino Babers.

Bowden got some national attention when Akron, quite possibly college football’s worst program a few years ago, went on the road and beat Pittsburgh as a 21-point underdog in September. The Zips haven’t covered since.

Their point spreads were inflated, but that no longer seems to be the case. It might have swung the other way.

Akron opened at minus-6.5 at most sports books before money came in on Bowling Green to drive down the line. Both offenses are mediocre at best, but Akron has a defensive advantage.

Akron is especially stout against the run, ranking second in the MAC, which is going to cause problems for Bowling Green.

Standings: Bern (52-46-1, $11,456), Keefer (45-54-1, $7,201), Brewer (45-52-3, $4,255)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.