Bruno Magalhaes / AP
Wednesday, June 11, 2014 | 2 a.m.
Odds to win 2014 World Cup
- Brazil: 5-to-2
- Argentina: 4-to-1
- Germany: 5-to-1
- Spain: 13-to-2
- Italy: 20-to-1
- Belgium: 20-to-1
- Netherlands: 25-to-1
- France: 25-to-1
- Uruguay: 25-to-1
- Portugal: 25-to-1
- England: 30-to-1
- Colombia: 30-to-1
- Chile: 50-to-1
- Russia: 80-to-1
- USA: 100-to-1
- Mexico: 100-to-1
- Switzerland: 100-to-1
- Croatia: 150-to-1
- Ivory Coast: 150-to-1
- Japan: 150-to-1
- Bosnia-Herzegovina: 150-to-1
- Ghana: 150-to-1
- Ecuador: 150-to-1
- Nigeria: 250-to-1
- Greece: 250-to-1
- South Korea: 300-to-1
- Cameroon: 1000-to-1
- Australia: 1000-to-1
- Costa Rica: 1000-to-1
- Honduras: 1000-to-1
- Iran: 1000-to-1
- Algeria: 2000-to-1
- Numbers from the LVH Superbook
Related Coverage
Soccer experts across the globe suggest the 2014 FIFA World Cup is Brazil’s to lose.
The host country leads several of the worldwide ranking systems. A pre-eminent analytical model gives the winningest team in World Cup history a 45 percent chance to win its sixth championship and first since 2002.
It all begs an important question: Is Las Vegas overlooking Brazil? Sports books aren’t disrespecting the green and yellow by any stretch of the imagination.
Brazil is a massive minus-550 (risking $5.50 to win $1) favorite over Croatia in the event’s opening match, scheduled for 1 p.m. Thursday in Sao Paulo. It’s also the overall favorite, at 5-to-2 per the LVH Superbook, to be celebrating in early July, but those odds don’t come close to reflecting what the aforementioned forecast calculates as a near even chance to win.
And, perhaps more importantly, not nearly as many people picking Brazil are betting on the country. Brazil has actually stayed as a 5-to-2 favorite at the LVH since the beginning of the year, but their odds have heightened at other sports books.
With teams like Italy and Uruguay severely trimming their odds — from 25-to-1 to 18-to-1 and 25-to-1 to 12-to-1 respectively — Brazil moved up from 9-to-5 to 2-to-1 at Station Casinos.
Sports books valleywide wouldn’t be threatened by Brazil becoming the seventh host country to prevail in the World Cup. They’d profit.
Truth is, most bettors will rarely overload on a team in any sport winning a title at odds as low as 5-to-2. They want a higher payout.
A longer shot winning the World Cup isn’t unprecedented. Italy was 18-to-1 coming into the 2006 tournament, in which Brazil was also favored, before prevailing. But in the most recent World Cup, Spain rode a 9-to-2 favorite status all the way to the title.
Las Vegas loves a long shot, something Brazil is decidedly not in 2014.
On the eve of the World Cup, check out snapshots of odds to win the tournament on the side and to win the groups below.
Group A
Brazil — minus-600
Mexico — plus-800
Croatia — plus-800
Cameroon — plus-2500
Group B
Spain — minus-175
Netherlands — plus-275
Chile — plus-400
Australia — plus-6000
Group C
Colombia — minus-120
Ivory Coast — plus-350
Japan — plus-375
Greece — plus-700
Group D
Italy — plus-150
Uruguay — plus-175
England — plus-220
Costa Rica — plus-2500
Group E
France — minus-150
Switzerland — plus-275
Ecuador — plus-400
Honduras — plus-2000
Group F
Argentina — minus-600
Bosnia-Herzegovina — plus-700
Nigeria — plus-900
Iran — plus-3500
Group G
Germany — minus-200
Portugal — plus-275
Ghana — plus-1000
USA — plus-1000
Group H
Belgium — minus-175
Russia — plus-220
South Korea — plus-7000
Algeria — plus-2500
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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