Bowl Pick ’em Against the Spread, Part 3

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Dec. 29, 2014 | 10 a.m.

The baddest beat of bowl season benefited the books.

Central Michigan chipped into several bettors’ bankrolls with their crazy comeback in the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl on Christmas Eve. The Chippewas fell to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 49-48, but covered the 3.5-point spread after scoring the game’s final 34 points.

More than two out of every three bets were on Western Kentucky, which took a 49-14 lead into the fourth quarter. Central Michigan scored on its next four possessions, but Western Kentucky tickets looked safe until it got the ball back with one second left on the clock.

That’s when, in a highlight that will live on for years to come, quarterback Cooper Rush completed a Hail Mary to Jesse Kroll who started a triple-lateral that finished with Titus Davis finding the end zone. Gamblers were likely too distraught and distracted discarding their tickets to see Central Michigan miss the two-point conversion to make the score meaningless.

Talking Points picked Western Kentucky and felt the pain but can’t grumble too much about bowl season overall. The blog is off to a 12-6 against the spread start picking every game this postseason.

Check below for part three and come back Thursday for the final installment of the series.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M plus-1.5 vs. West Virginia, over/under: 65

11 a.m. Monday, Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis on ESPN

The line swung two points when West Virginia quarterback Clint Trickett announced his retirement from football following five concussions. But why? Replacement Skyler Howard is just as competent, throwing for five touchdowns to no interceptions and 7.5 yards per attempt in three appearances this season. He also adds a rushing dimension, gaining 8.9 yards per carry, that could dizzy a Texas A&M defense giving up 5.9 yards per play.

Pick: West Virginia minus-1.5

Russell Athletic Bowl: Oklahoma minus-4 vs. Clemson, over/under: 52.5

2:30 p.m. Monday, Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando on ESPN

The stature of these two programs is working as makeup. This is an ugly bowl disguised as an attractive one. Clemson will play without quarterback DeShaun Watson, who recently underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL. Oklahoma’s offensive stars — quarterback Trevor Knight, running back Samaje Perine and receiver Sterling Shepard — will all play but not at 100 percent coming off of injuries. Clemson is 1-5 against the spread over the second half of the season. Oklahoma is 2-4. Despite both teams sporting their warts, the Sooners are drawing nine out of every 10 tickets.

Pick: Clemson plus-4

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl: Arkansas minus-6 vs. Texas, over/under: 45

6 p.m. Monday, NRG Stadium in Houston on ESPN

Arkansas has the biggest offensive line in the country and two 1,000-yard rushers in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. Texas has a dominant defensive line, led by Malcolm Brown and Cedric Reed, giving up less than four yards per rushing attempt. On the surface, it’s a clash as close as Southeastern pulled pork versus Texas brisket. But the Longhorns have been plain Texas toast against decent competition this season. Against teams with winning records, they’re 1-6 straight-up and 3-4 against the spread with a minus-107 point differential. Arkansas is 3-6 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread in such meetings with a plus-26 point differential.

Pick: Arkansas minus-6

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Notre Dame plus-7.5 vs. LSU, over/under: 52

12 p.m. Tuesday, LP Field in Nashville on ESPN

The line on this game would have been closer to a field goal than a touchdown if it took place in the middle of the regular season. Notre Dame fell apart after a near miss against Florida State, failing to cover in five straight to close the season including outright losses in its last four. The Irish gave up 43 points per game during the downturn. LSU only gave up more than 20 points three times all year. Notre Dame has a comparable edge offense, though, regardless whether Everett Golson or Malik Zaire start at quarterback. The Irish gained 5.9 yards per play this season to the Tigers’ 5.1.

Pick: Notre Dame plus-7.5

Belk Bowl: Georgia minus-6.5 vs. Louisville, over/under: 57.5

3:30 p.m. Tuesday, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on ESPN

Louisville squeaked out victories in its last two games, winning by a total of seven points against Notre Dame and Kentucky. Georgia was on the other end of variance, losing to rival Georgia Tech in overtime and missing the SEC Championship Game by Missouri pulling off three straight upsets. Switch one of those game results and this spread could have fallen on the other side of a touchdown. And maybe that’s where it should have posted anyway. Georgia has a plus-245 point differential against a tougher schedule than Louisville, which managed a symmetrical plus-145.

Pick: Georgia minus-6.5

Foster Farms Bowl: Maryland plus-14 vs. Stanford, over/under: 47.5

7 p.m. Tuesday, Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on ESPN

After a 3-1 start this year, underdogs in bowl games with a total of less than 51 points are now 14 games over .500 in the last decade. Not wanting to lay points in games where they’ll be hard to come by feels almost too self-explanatory, but it’s a profitable strategy over a large sample. Taking double digits in bowl games is another tried approach, and Maryland is the only team getting two-touchdowns this season.

Pick: Maryland plus-14

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Ole Miss plus-3.5 vs. TCU, over/under: 56.5

9:30 a.m. Wednesday, Georgia Dome in Atlanta on ESPN

Those continuing to protest TCU’s exclusion from the college football playoff reference its only loss coming by three points at Baylor. The Horned Frogs collapsed after holding a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter, and still barely lost. That’s one way of looking at the defeat. A different viewpoint would be that they gave up 782 yards of offense to the Bears. TCU’s luck more than evened out as it went 3-0 in other games decided by less than a touchdown and posted a plus-17 turnover margin on the year. They implanted themselves in the playoff conversation without ever facing a defense the caliber of Ole Miss, which is third in the nation according to Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings.

Pick: Ole Miss plus-3.5

Vizio Fiesta Bowl: Boise State plus-3 vs. Arizona, over/under: 68.5

1 p.m. Wednesday, University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

The first half of bowl season has done nothing to quell concerns over the weakness of the Mountain West conference. Teams from the MWC have gone 2-4 straight-up and against the spread, bringing their marks since 2011 to 8-14 in both categories. It’s the Wildcats first berth in the Fiesta Bowl since 1994 where they helped end Miami’s early-90s dynasty with a 29-0 blowout as 5.5-point underdogs. Expect just as raucous of an Arizona crowd as 20 years ago with fans making the short trek up I-10 in droves.

Pick: Arizona minus-3

Capital One Orange Bowl: Mississippi State minus-7 vs. Georgia Tech

5 p.m. Wednesday, Sun Life Stadium in Miami

Georgia Tech may have never spent a stretch as the No. 1 ranked team in the country, but it had just as impressive of a season as Mississippi State. The Yellow Jackets finished the regular season with the same straight-up record, 10-2 before narrowly losing to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, and a win better against the spread at 8-4. Their three losses were by a total of 13 points. Teams have played well against Georgia Tech with time to prepare for the triple option as the Yellow Jackets are 1-5 staight-up and against the spread in bowl games under coach Paul Johnson. But Mississippi State’s defense is in flux with the departure of defensive coordinator Geoff Collins.

Pick: Georgia Tech plus-7

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.