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March 19, 2024

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Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 17 winners against the spread

Chargers Week 17

ASSOCIATED PRESS

San Diego Chargers wide receiver Dontrelle Inman (15) runs against San Francisco 49ers strong safety Craig Dahl (43) during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Saturday, Dec. 20, 2014.

The final week of the regular season sets up identically for Talking Points and the San Diego Chargers: Win and we’re in.

Week 17: Division championships

Which side is the best bet out of the three games that will determine division champions? (Majority Poll Opinion this season: 10-7)
Steelers plus-3.5 — 29.8%
Packers minus-7.5 — 26.8%
Lions plus-7.5 — 19.0%
Falcons minus-4 — 10.7%
Panthers plus-4 — 10.1%
Bengals minus-3.5 — 3.6%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

The blog can post a profitable against the spread record picking every game over the course of the entire year with any .500 record or better. The Chargers are going to have to do a little better.

San Diego, a 2.5-point underdog, must go on the road and upset Kansas City to hang onto its spot as the current No. 6 seed in the AFC Playoffs. Anything other than a postseason berth would be a disappointment for San Diego after it advanced to the divisional round last season.

Talking Points has a lower bar. Anything above 50 percent was the goal when I started this project, given the inherent disadvantage of forcing a bet on every game.

That looks secure barring major collapse. The record for the year stands at 124-112-4 after a down 7-9 mark last week.

Check below for all of the week 17 picks, separated as always into three categories with records attached. Lines are taken from the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (27-27-1)

Detroit Lions plus-8 at Green Bay Packers In three games against teams with elite defenses this season — Seattle, Detroit and Buffalo — the Packers are yet to lose by less than a touchdown. Not that they’ll lose outright, but the line looks a field goal too high.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-10 at Houston Texans In two years under coach Gus Bradley, the Jaguars are now 8-5-1 against the spread in the second half of the season. No need to overreact to one serviceable showing from Houston quarterback Case Keenum, who’s still 1-8 straight-up, 3-6 against the spread as a starter.

Saint Louis Rams plus-13 at Seattle Seahawks With five straight wins and covers, the Seahawks are the hottest team in the NFL. But let’s not forget they swiped that title from Rams, which had covered four straight before a two-game losing streak.

Leans (49-40-1)

San Francisco 49ers minus-5.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Logan Thomas is 12-26-2 against the spread — as a starter at Virginia Tech. The experiment starting him against the NFL’s fifth-ranked defense, according to Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, won’t end well.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-3 at New York Giants Short memories are the only conceivable rationale for this betting line. The Giants were 3-9 straight-up, 4-8 against the spread before their current three-game winning and covering streak. The Eagles were 9-3 straight-up, 8-4 against the spread before their current three-game losing and non-covering streak.

Baltimore Ravens minus-9 vs. Cleveland Browns The average margin of victory in games at M&T Bank Stadium this season is Baltimore by 12 points. And most of those games came against teams less broken than Cleveland.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-2.5 vs. San Diego Chargers Now on their fifth center of the season, the Chargers lost yet another offensive lineman to injury last week. An underrated Chiefs front ranking sixth in adjusted sack rate should take advantage.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-3.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive gap favoring Cincinnati — giving up 5.3 yards per play to Pittsburgh’s 6.1 — is more significant than Steelers’ offensive edge — gaining 6.2 yards per play to Bengals’ 5.7. Line only projected as Pittsburgh minus-2 a couple weeks ago, so lean towards taking the value with Cincinnati.

Atlanta Falcons minus-4 vs. Carolina Panthers Prefer to back the better team at a reasonable price. With only a minus-5 point differential on the season — as opposed to Carolina’s minus-66 — Atlanta is unlucky to sit at 6-9.

Miami Dolphins minus-5.5 vs. New York Jets It’s becoming harder by the minute to back the Dolphins, which have dropped four straight against the spread. But the hunch is the Jets threw everything into last week’s 17-16 near-miss against the Patriots, and won’t have much left.

Guesses (48-45-2)

Buffalo Bills plus-5 at New England Patriots With home-field advantage already sewn up, the Patriots have nothing to play for. Neither do the Bills, but expecting a spirited effort from a defense ranked No. 2 by Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings in their final game of the season.

Oakland Raiders plus-14 at Denver Broncos Can’t bear to lay double digits with a team that, at the least, will be tempted to rest starters. Over the second half of the season, the Raiders are 4-3 against the spread to the Broncos’ 3-4.

Chicago Bears plus-6.5 at Minnesota Vikings Worried about the Bears playing apathetically, but they didn’t seem to fall into the trap against the Lions last week. And can’t shake the memory of the Bears walloping Vikings — the score was only 21-13 but Chicago had twice the yards — last month.

New Orleans Saints minus-3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers With five straight losses as favorites, no one should rush to lay points with the Saints. But winning is a disincentive for the Buccaneers as it would take them out of the top spot in the draft.

Indianapolis Colts minus-7 at Tennessee Titans Almost nothing could convince me to take the Titans, which have lost nine straight and failed to cover in their last five, getting less than double digits at this point. They’ve also lost their last six both straight-up and against the spread to the Colts.

Dallas Cowboys minus-6 at Washington Redskins Last week’s blowout of Indianapolis at AT&T Stadium was an anomaly, as most of Dallas’ best performances have come on the road where they’re 7-0 straight-up and 6-1 against the spread. If coach Jason Garrett is to be trusted about his plan not to rest starters, then this is a inexpensive price.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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