Bowl Pick ’em Against the Spread, Part 2

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2014 | 2 a.m.

The gifts arrived early this year.

Bowl season boosted Talking Points’ holiday spirit with a 6-2 against the spread record in the first entry picking every game against the spread. But there’s no time to revel in the cheer with 10 more bowls scheduled for the rest of the week.

Check below for analysis and picks for the next handful of bowl games.

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl: Central Michigan plus-3.5 vs. Western Kentucky, over/under: 68.5

9 a.m. Wednesday, Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas, on ESPN

The Chippewas played the 16th easiest schedule in the nation out of 128 teams, according to the metrics at teamrankings.com, and could only barely muster bowl eligibility at 7-5 straight-up, 5-7 against the spread. They went 1-3 in both categories against bowl teams. The Hilltoppers held their own against decent competition, going 4-2 straight-up and 3-3 against the spread versus teams that reached the postseason.

The only concern is the overwhelming majority of the tickets coming in on Western Kentucky. But the public isn’t always wrong, so that can be ignored as easily as the fact that there’s not a Popeyes within 300 miles of the Bahamas.

Pick: Western Kentucky minus-3.5

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State plus-2 vs. Rice, over/under: 59.5

5 p.m. Wednesday, Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii on ESPN

Where does one start with the list of Fresno failings? There are so many choices. Option A) The Bulldogs required an NCAA waiver to participate in a bowl game after finishing with a losing record. Option B) They were the only Football Bowl Subdivision team to lose to UNLV this season. Option C) In two years under coach Tim DeRuyter, they’ve lost both bowl games by a combined score of 88-30 to extend an 0-5 straight-up and against the spread record in the postseason for the program.

The Owls are no menaces. They gave up 677 yards in their last outing, a 76-31 beat down at Louisiana Tech as 7.5-point underdogs. But oddsmakers were off on Rice before that, as it had covered seven of its previous eight.

Pick: Rice minus-2

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl: Illinois plus-6 vs. Louisiana Tech, over/under: 58.5

10 a.m. Friday, Cotton Bowl in Dallas on ESPN

Turnovers can be as fickle as a college football coach’s job security. Louisiana Tech’s nation-leading 40 turnovers, therefore, doesn’t portend future success. If anything, the Bulldogs’ plus-15 turnover margin is more likely to regress. And that’s not the only factor working against Louisiana Tech.

Illinois enters with higher spirits, having pulled off back-to-back upsets to save coach Tim Beckman from a once imminent demise. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech lost a heartbreaker to Marshall in the Conference USA Championship Game after six players, including four starters, were ruled academically ineligible. None of them will return for the bowl game even though bettors are loading up on Bulldogs tickets like chicken fingers at a tailgate.

Pick: Illinois plus-6

Quick Lane Bowl: Rutgers plus-3.5 vs. North Carolina, over/under: 66.5

1:30 p.m. Friday, Ford Field in Detroit on ESPN

This is the most appropriately titled bowl game of the year, as both teams should motor up and down the field. The defenses have provided the resistance of an open road. Rutgers gives up 31 points per game, a figure that could only possibly look serviceable next to North Carolina’s average of 39 points.

The perception is that the Tarheels, with do-everything junior quarterback Marqise Williams, hold a major advantage on offense. But Rutgers, with deceptively efficient senior quarterback Greg Nova, owns an edge with 5.8 yards per play to North Carolina’s 5.6. In an almost completely even matchup — Rutgers is No. 73 in Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings to North Carolina’s No. 74 — taking the points would be the play on either side.

Pick: Rutgers plus-3.5

Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: North Carolina State plus-2 vs. Central Florida, over/under: 50

5 p.m. Friday, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., on ESPN

Motivation is one of the most important aspects to handicap when it comes to bowl games. It can also be one of the trickiest, especially when teams are coming off of thrilling performances. Neither the Wolfpack nor the Knights are topping what happened in their last games, which happened to be the highlight of their seasons.

UCF won a share of the American Athletic Conference title when Breshard Perriman came down with a 51-yard Hail Mary from Justin Holman in the final seconds of a game against East Carolina. N.C. State throttled archrival North Carolina 35-7. Although both teams were touchdown underdogs going into the game, N.C. State’s win looks less startling in retrospect. The Wolfpack have at least moved the ball, behind quarterback Jacoby Brissett and running back Shadrach Thornton, decently all year at 5.6 yards per play. UFC has only mustered 4.8 yards per play.

Pick: North Carolina State plus-2

Military Bowl: Cincinnati minus-3 vs. Virginia Tech, over/under: 51

10 a.m. Saturday, Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md., on ESPN

These two programs meet for the third time in six years. The underdog in the previous two meetings, Virginia Tech plus-2.5 in the 2009 Orange Bowl and Cincinnati plus-6.5 in a neutral-site regular season matchup, prevailed outright. Virginia Tech, interestingly, was much better taking points this season at 3-1 straight-up and against the spread as opposed to 3-5 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread as a favorite.

For all their faults, the Hokies still have a durable defense featuring shutdown cornerback Kendall Fuller that ranked in the top 20 in giving up 4.8 yards per play. Cincinnati finished the season in far stronger fashion, having not lost against the spread in eight weeks, but it didn’t play a single above-average defense in the span.

Pick: Virginia Tech plus-3

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Duke plus-7.5 vs. Arizona State, over/under: 65.5

11:00 a.m. Saturday, Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, on CBS

The complexities of Duke coach David Cutcliffe’s entire offensive playbook would be more explainable than this betting line. Statistically, these teams are evenly matched to an extreme degree. The Sun Devils are .4 yards per play better on offense. The Blue Devils are .4 yards per play better on defense. F/+ ratings see them as virtual equals, with Arizona State ranked at No. 26 and Duke two spots behind.

Situationally, Duke enters in a much better spot. It’s enthralled by the chance to win the program’s first bowl game since 1961 and make more history with back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time ever. Arizona State brings in a quarterback controversy, between oft-injured Taylor Kelly and Mike Bercovici, and disappointed after being in the college football playoff conversation deep into November before losing two of three.

Pick: Duke plus-7.5

Duck Commander Independence Bowl: Miami minus-3.5 vs. South Carolina, over/under: 60

12:30 p.m. Saturday, Independence Stadium in Shreveport, La., on ABC

Only 13 teams in the country allowed more yards per rushing attempt than South Carolina’s defense. Only 11 players in the nation ran for more yards than Miami’s Duke Johnson. Miami might salvage some of its sputtering season with an exceptional stylistic matchup.

South Carolina is in the running for the most disappointing team of the year. Picked to win the SEC East, the Gamecocks instead struggled to go 6-6 straight-up and 4-8 against the spread. After a midseason high, Miami didn’t end much better. The Hurricanes lost both straight-up and against the spread in their last three games.

Pick: Miami minus-3.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State plus-3 vs. Boston College

1:30 p.m. Saturday, Yankee Stadium in New York on ESPN

No one could have forecasted this matchup. Coach Steve Addazio took over Boston College with a stated plan of gradually building back up to a perennial bowl team. He’s already 2-for-2. Penn State was never supposed to have the opportunity to play in a bowl this season until the NCAA unexpectedly lifted its postseason ban in the middle of the year.

Other than their resilience, the Eagles and Nittany Lions have little in common. Penn State snuck into bowl eligibility with a terrific defense, led by stalwart linebacker Mike Hull, ranked first in the nation at giving up 4 yards per play. Boston College’s biggest strength is its run game with quarterback Tyler Murphy averaging better than six yards per carry.

Pick: Penn State plus-3

National University Holiday Bowl: Nebraska plus-7 at USC, over/under: 62.5

5:00 p.m. Saturday, Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego

Nebraska interim coach Barney Cotton has already accepted the offer to join Tony Sanchez’s UNLV staff at the conclusion of the Holiday Bowl. And that’s not even the most dysfunctional part of Nebraska’s situation. Some of the Cornhuskers, including sophomore quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., were outspoken over the decision to fire Bo Pelini and hire Oregon State’s Mike Riley.

Sometimes it’s difficult to determine which team goes into a bowl game with a clearer mindset. Not here. USC, with only three senior starters, is talking about this game being the start of the future while Nebraska is stuck in the past.

Pick: USC minus-7

2014 Bowl Season Record: 6-2

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.