Las Vegas Sun

March 19, 2024

Sports Betting:

Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 16 winners against the spread

Seattle Seahawks-Richard Sherman

Elaine Thompson / Associated Press

Richard Sherman of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates with fans after the NFC championship game against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, Jan. 19, 2014, in Seattle. The Seahawks won 23-17 to advance to Super Bowl XLVIII.

Like putting a microphone in front of Richard Sherman postgame on a football field, the Seattle Seahawks are making a scene in Las Vegas sports books.

Week 16: Chiefs at Steelers

Which side would you take in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority Poll Opinion this season: 9-7)
Pittsburgh minus-3 — 71.6%
Kansas City plus-3 — 28.4%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

The defending Super Bowl champions have nudged their way to the top of the betting board. Seattle is now 3-to-1 to repeat at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, trailing only the New England Patriots at 5-to-2 as Super Bowl favorites.

The Seahawks were out of the top three for more than a month before a recent four-game winning streak both straight-up and against the spread. The Patriots, Broncos and Packers were all ahead of them at the start of November.

Seattle climbed as high as 12-to-1 after losing to Kansas City 24-20 as 1-point favorites in week 11. But the Seahawks haven’t lost since, and as more than a touchdown favorite at Arizona this week and projecting in the same situation at home versus St. Louis next week, they aren’t expected to again.

Talking Points was on the same arc until last week. The blog had recovered from a terrible week 11 to post winning records in three straight outings.

Week 15 came down to Monday Night Football, and falling on the wrong side meant a 7-8-1 record to bring the annual tally to 117-103-4, well above the goal to beat .500.

Check below for the second-to-last pick’em of the season, with bets on every game separated into categories with attached records. Lines are the best currently available locally for the chosen sides.

Plays (26-24-1)

Miami Dolphins minus-6.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings Choosing to look beyond the drama, including questions of Miami coach Joe Philbin’s job security, and toward the numbers, where the Dolphins are far superior to the Vikings by every measure. Miami is rated 12th to Minnesota’s 22nd in offense, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and 10th to 20th in defense.

Kansas City Chiefs plus-3 at Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh’s undisputed edge on offense, gaining 6.2 yards per play to Kansas City’s 5.4, isn’t enough to cover up its disadvantage on defense. The Chiefs are giving up just 5.1 yards per play to the Steelers’ 6.2.

Washington Redskins plus-8 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Washington outgained Philadelphia by 132 yards in the teams’ first meeting this season. And that was without Robert Griffin III, who quietly played well with nearly 300 yards in a 24-13 loss to the Giants — the Redskins were a touchdown underdog — that was closer than the score indicates.

Cleveland Browns plus-3.5 at Carolina Panthers This game is off the board at almost every sports book with no news on Cam Newton’s status. But regardless of who plays quarterback for the Panthers, the Browns’ defense will be tough to penetrate as evidenced by giving up less than five yards per play over the last month.

Leans (46-37-1)

Denver Broncos minus-3 at Cincinnati Bengals It’s hard to pinpoint the cause, but Cincinnati is 2-9 against the spread in primetime games since Andy Dalton took over under center. Peyton Manning’s perceived issues are overblown with C.J. Anderson available to gash a Bengals’ defense giving up an 4.3 yards per rush attempt, eighth-worst in the NFL.

Oakland Raiders plus-6 vs. Buffalo Bills Bills haven’t laid this many points on the road since 2008 — let alone when traveling through three time zones. After winning their last two games at the Coliseum outright, the Raiders are now 3-2 against the spread at home under interim coach Tony Sparano.

New York Giants plus-5.5 at St. Louis Rams Trent Green threw touchdown passes to Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce the last time the Rams beat and covered against the Giants, in 2000. In more meaningful analysis, New York has the offensive line — ranking 12th in sack percentage — to hold St. Louis’ ferocious pass rush at bay.

Baltimore Ravens minus-5 at Houston Texans Having already reached Houston minus-6.5 at some offshore sports books, this line is bound to go off of the board at a higher price. Take the value, therefore, with the Ravens while it’s available.

Tennessee Titans plus-3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars Not rushing to back a Jaguars team that comes in as a favorite for the first time in 43 games. They haven’t covered as a favorite, by the way, in 46 games — since week 17 of the 2011 season.

New York Jets plus-10.5 vs. New England Patriots Jets have more than held their own against the Patriots under Rex Ryan at 7-5 against the spread, including 3-1 when taking double digits. Don’t forget New York outgained New England by 105 yards on the road earlier in the season and had a game-winning field goal blocked in the final seconds.

Guesses (45-42-2)

Indianapolis Colts plus-3 at Dallas Cowboys No reports have surfaced of the Colts planning to take it easy with their playoff positioning all but settled. On the contrary, they want to repair parts of the offense meaning a field goal is a low asking price for a team rated three spots better than their opponents — No. 10 to No. 13 — in DVOA.

San Diego Chargers plus-2 at San Francisco 49ers Smells like a ‘WTF’ game — wrong team favored. Eliminated from the playoffs, the 49ers have nothing left to play for while the Chargers’ two-game losing streak both straight-up and against the spread came against the two best teams in the league.

Atlanta Falcons plus-6.5 at New Orleans Saints The situation looks favorable to the Saints — coming home to the Superdome where they’ve only lost once to the Falcons under coach Sean Payton — but the numbers scream that the line is inflated. New Orleans is only percentage points ahead of Atlanta in DVOA, No. 17 to No. 20, meaning close to a touchdown is too many to give.

Detroit Lions minus-7 at Chicago Bears Bears couldn’t stop the Lions on Thanksgiving — Matthew Stafford threw for 390 yards — but were able to hang for a while in a 34-17 loss as 7.5-point underdogs with the offense producing some plays. That’s not going to happen with quarterback Jimmy Clausen, 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 against the spread as a starter, now at the helm.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-10.5 vs. Green Bay Packers Packers haven’t looked like the same team on the road, failing to cover in three straight. Their most recent win against the spread away from Lambeau Field was a last-second win at Miami.

Seattle Seahawks minus-7.5 at Arizona Cardinals For his career, Cardinals starter Ryan Lindley has thrown zero touchdowns and seven interceptions. Hard to have any confidence in him against a Seattle defense suddenly reemerging as the NFL’s best.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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