Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 15 winners against the spread

Tre Mason Rams

ASSOCIATED PRESS

St. Louis Rams running back Tre Mason (27) carries the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Washington Redskins in Landover, Md., Sunday, Dec. 7, 2014.

Las Vegas’ new favorite team should enliven this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup.

Week 15: Cowboys at Eagles

Which side would you take in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority Poll Opinion this season: 9-6)
Eagles minus-3.5 — 52.7%
Cowboys plus-3.5 — 47.3%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

The Saint Louis Rams are in a class of their own when it comes to point-spread performance over the last month. Saint Louis has covered in four straight games with only one of them being a remotely suspenseful decision.

And in that contest, a 27-24 loss at San Diego as 4-point underdogs, the Rams had the ball at the 4-yard line with a minute to go before committing a turnover.

Saint Louis is one win away from reaching its preseason over/under total of 7 wins and favored for the next two weeks. The Rams lay 4.5 points to NFC-leading Arizona tonight before hosting the lowly New York Giants next week.

They may not be playoff-bound as some sharp bettors wagered in the summer — before quarterback Sam Bradford’s injury — but they’re finally playing up to that potential. The Rams are the first team in 14 years to pitch back-to-back shutouts.

Talking Points, regrettably, picked against the Rams on the spread versus both the Redskins and Raiders. Luckily, the blog hasn’t gone much else wrong recently.

A 10-6 performance last week puts the overall record at 110-95-3 picking every game against the spread.

Check out this week’s picks below, separated into three confidence-level sections with records attached to each. Lines reflect the best currently available number on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (25-23)

Cleveland Browns plus-1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals An ideal first start for Johnny Manziel with the Bengals rating 30th in the NFL against the run per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Cleveland offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will have some surprises drawn up for a Cincinnati defense that gave up more than 100 yards to the only mobile quarterback, Cam Newton, it faced this season.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-10 vs. Oakland Raiders Overreaction theater on this line, as Kansas City would have posted as a two-touchdown favorite in this spot a few weeks ago. With two of the losses coming by less than a touchdown, the Chiefs’ three-game losing streak is overblown.

San Francisco 49ers plus-10 at Seattle Seahawks Tough as it may be to back a team that hasn’t sniffed covering in three straight games, this number has spiraled out of control in nearly doubling since last week’s look-ahead line of minus-6. The 49ers won’t come out as listless in their last shot against their archrivals.

Leans (45-32-1)

Miami Dolphins plus-8 at New England Patriots Miami has taken more than a touchdown five times in the last five years against New England, covering in four of the contests. None of those teams were nearly as efficient as this year’s Dolphins, which comfortably defeated the Patriots 33-20 as 3.5-point underdogs in week 1.

Houston Texans plus-6.5 at Indianapolis Colts Healthier since the first meeting this year when Andrew Luck tore them up for nearly 400 yards in a five-point win, the Texans’ pass defense is vastly improved. They’re now league-average at giving up 6.9 yards per pass attempt, while Luck has cooled off slightly and dropped to seventh in passer rating.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-3.5 at Carolina Panthers Just in time to squander any chance at drafting Marcus Mariota, the Buccaneers have noticeably improved. They’re dead-even with the Panthers in yards per play, at 5.18, and actually a tad better on defense allowing 5.5 yards per play to Carolina’s 5.6.

San Diego Chargers plus-4.5 vs. Denver Broncos At a combined 3-8 against the spread since their first meeting this season, both teams have consistently burned bettors in the second half of the season. Gamblers keep backing Denver, however, to create tiny pockets of value like in this spot where the number was point lower on last week’s look-ahead line.

Green Bay Packers minus-4.5 at Buffalo Bills The Bills’ two-touchdown fourth quarter to backdoor cover plus-9 against the Broncos after falling behind 24-3 last week shouldn’t fool anyone from the fact that they don’t have the offense to keep up with the NFL’s elite. Grab this inexplicably low number before it’s closer to a touchdown at kickoff.

Tennessee Titans plus-2 vs. New York Jets New York quarterback Geno Smith has gone 2-8 against the spread as a starter this season. At least Tennessee counterpart Jake Locker has gone 5-5 in his last 10 games at the helm.

Guesses (40-40-2)

Minnesota Vikings plus-8 at Detroit Lions Don’t look now, but the Vikings are vying for the best against the spread record in the NFL at 8-5 and one cash behind Indianapolis and Arizona. They’ve covered in six of their last seven games, and yet, the spread here has still climbed a point.

Chicago Bears plus-3 vs. New Orleans Saints Can’t feel comfortable getting behind the Saints as favorites on the road anywhere. Let alone in Chicago, where rain is in the forecast and the Bears are better equipped to deal with the elements.

Atlanta Falcons plus-2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers For all the punch lines about the Falcons’ defense, the Steelers’ unit is just as poor at allowing 6.1 yards per play to the former’s 6.2. If forced to back one pitiful defense against an explosive offense, prefer to look towards the one at home.

Dallas Cowboys plus-3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles Trying not to fall victim to recency bias, but the Eagles’ 139 total yards of at home last week left much to be desired. Dallas is 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread on the road this season.

Arizona Cardinals plus-4.5 at Saint Louis Rams The Rams’ recent run is meaningful, but so is what came directly before it: A 31-14 dismantling at Arizona as a 7-point underdog. Any potential value on Saint Louis is zapped with the line moving as close to a touchdown as a field goal.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-14 at Baltimore Ravens The Jaguars’ defense has steadily worked its way into the top half of the league, now ranking 13th in DVOA, so scoring enough points to cover a spread this high could be an issue for the Ravens. Hard to imagine Baltimore coming out with much emotion against a two-win team a week after a gigantic win.

New York Giants minus-6.5 vs. Washington Redskins While both teams look impressively inept, New York appears to still put in effort. The dysfunction of the Washington locker room may have extended to the field where a 1-4 against the spread record to go with five straight losses may indicate the players have quit.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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