John Raoux / AP
Florida State tight end Nick O’Leary, left, catches a 6-yard touchdown pass in front of Florida defensive back Marcus Maye during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Tallahassee, Fla., Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014.
Friday, Dec. 5, 2014 | 9:45 a.m.
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Sports bettors always want more.
Betting lines on the final handful of non-bowl games over the next two days apparently aren’t enough to keep college football gamblers occupied. Potential college football playoff spreads have dominated just as much, if not more, of the conversation on conference championship weekend.
In past years, some sports books would post spreads on the likely national championship matchups in week 15. The new four-team playoff has put an end to that practice, as there are still too many possibilities with the top seven ranked teams in action this weekend.
That doesn’t mean oddsmakers won’t project where the numbers would fall. Under the current seedings, No. 1 Alabama would post as around a 10-point favorite over No. 4 Florida State.
The spread on No. 2 Oregon versus No. 3 TCU would be much smaller, no bigger than minus-4 for the Ducks.
In a hypothetical national championship between the top two teams, Alabama would lay a field goal to Oregon.
That’s all getting way ahead, of course. The last week of college football often has a way of ruining speculation with a final surprise or two.
Not too much has blindsided the college football by the odds column this season, as I speed into the finish line with a 77-61-2 against the spread record picking the 10 biggest games every week. Given this week’s decreased slate, we’re down to five games before heading to bowl season.
Check below for this week’s full preview and picks.
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Pac 12 Championship: Arizona plus-14 vs. Oregon, over/under: 74; 6 p.m. Friday in Santa Clara, Calif., on Fox
Arizona already nabbed the second biggest upset of the season in games among ranked teams. Now the Wildcats can notch another spot in the top 10 against the same team.
Texas A&M’s 41-38 toppling of Auburn was the only win more surprising than Arizona’s 31-24 knockout of Oregon according to the betting line. The Aggies were plus-23.5, two points higher than the Wildcats.
Much has changed since that fateful second day of October.
On the Ducks’ side, the offensive line has gotten healthier and protected Heisman frontrunner Marcus Mariota — a 1-to-10 favorite offshore — much more efficiently than it did when the quarterback fumbled three times in the loss. Oregon has covered in all seven games since its lone defeat on the season.
Betting patterns indicate the market is unconcerned, however, as Arizona is drawing the bulk of the action in the rematch. That’s a vast difference from the first game, when sports books rejoiced to see heavily bet Oregon fall in a nationally televised Thursday night game.
Arizona enters on its first against the spread winning streak of the year, beating Arizona State 42-35 as 2-point favorites after crushing Utah 42-10 as 4.5-point underdogs to sneak into the title game.
Pick: Oregon minus-14 Absolutely can not decide on a side for this game, so I’ll revert to a tried strategy: Fading the public underdog.
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SEC Championship: Missouri plus-14.5 vs. Alabama, over/under: 49; 1 p.m. Saturday in Atlanta on CBS
The ultimate underdog takes on the famous favorite in the Georgia Dome.
Missouri has won back-to-back SEC East division championships despite coming in as an underdog in eight of their last 17 conference games. The Tigers have won all but one straight-up.
Oddsmakers’ streak of favoring Alabama, meanwhile, is now up to 66 straight games. The Crimson Tide have gone 36-30 against the spread in the span, a record somewhat soiled by this year’s underwhelming 4-8 mark.
Both teams are solidly in their roles to finish off SEC play. Alabama has been the favorite to take the national championship the majority of the year, and is currently 5-to-4 to win the first college football playoff. Missouri was almost evicted from the future board after losing to Georgia 34-0 in October, climbing to 1000-to-1.
There’s a misconception that Alabama has a titanic advantage on defense. Missouri, in actuality, is giving up less yards per play at 4.3 to Alabama’s 4.5 in games against FBS level opponents.
Defensive end Shane Ray is a surefire All American, with linebacker Kentrell Brothers worthy of at least consideration to join him.
The Crimson Tide are oceans better on offense, though. Amari Cooper moved into second in the nation in receiving after last week’s 224-yard outburst.
Pick: Under 49 points Expecting Alabama to slow down on offense from last week’s Iron Bowl pace, and Missouri to bear down on defense as it’s done over the majority of the season’s second half.
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Kansas State plus-8 at Baylor, over/under: 66.5; 4:45 p.m., ESPN
From “One True Champion” to two teams winning a “share” of the title, the Big 12 is bound to embarrass itself Saturday.
Barring a monumental collapse from TCU as a 34-point favorite against Iowa State, the winner of this game will emerge as co-conference champions with the Horned Frogs regardless of their head-to-head result.
For a refresher, TCU routed Kansas State 41-20 as 6.5-point favorites a few weeks after covering the 7-point spread but losing to Baylor 61-58. That’s irrelevant as far as a Big 12 trophy.
The season-long talk of a round-robin schedule producing a more definitive victor than a conference championship game turned out to be just that — talk.
It was even harder to bet on this game than understand its true implications for most of this week. Sports books held the contest off of the board after Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty suffered a concussion in last week’s win over Texas Tech.
Petty is now expected to play, but there’s no guarantee as he continues to show symptoms. With Petty, the Bears were up 42-17 in three quarters Saturday and nearly covering the 26.5-point spread against the Red Raiders. Without him, they came close to losing outright.
Baylor held on 48-46 after Texas Tech missed a two-point conversion with less than two minutes to go.
Pick: Kansas State plus-8 No need to worry about the Baylor or TCU playoff debate. Kansas State wins outright.
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ACC Championship: Florida State minus-3.5 vs. Georgia Tech, over/under: 60.5; 5 p.m. in Charlotte on ESPN
Playing against Georgia Tech for the conference title in Bank of America Stadium feels like the most appropriate setting possible for Florida State’s imposing win streak to end.
The much-ballyhooed 28-game run began under identical circumstances. These two teams met in the 2012 ACC Championship Game with the Seminoles prevailing 21-15 coming off of their last loss.
Something else happened that day that’s been common for Florida State this season — it failed to cover. Last week’s narrow 24-19 victory over Florida as 7-point favorites dropped Florida State’s against the spread record to 3-9 on the season.
That’s tied with Oregon State for the worst among power five conference teams —ironic considering Florida State is the only one remaining unbeaten.
Reigning Heisman winner Jameis Winston committed four more giveaways last week, putting himself fourth in the nation with 17 interceptions.
Georgia Tech rambles in on more of a high, having beaten rival Georgia 30-24 in overtime as 12.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets have now won and covered in their last five games, coincidentally the same number of meetings since they failed to beat the spread in this series.
Florida State last cashed tickets against Georgia Tech in 2001, winning 28-17 as 10.5-point favorites
Pick: Florida State minus-3.5 Hard to call a conference championship game a letdown spot, but the Yellow Jackets put all they had into beating the Bulldogs, which effectively made their season.
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Big Ten Championship: Ohio State plus-3.5 vs. Wisconsin, over/under: 52.5; 5:15 p.m. in Indianapolis on Fox
The Buckeyes are the only team in the nation with two players on the roster worth a full touchdown on the point spread.
Problem is, it’s not going to help in their quest to avoid falling in the Big Ten Championship Game for the second year straight because neither of the two are available. After Ohio State’s season started with betting lines thrown into disarray because of an injury to senior quarterback Braxton Miller, it’s ending the same way with freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett following course.
Ohio State shaped up as around a 3-point favorite against Wisconsin until Barrett tore his ACL in last week’s 42-28 victory over Michigan. Sophomore Cardale Jones is signal caller No. 3 of the season for the Buckeyes.
Wisconsin’s own Heisman candidate is dealing with an injury too. Melvin Gordon, the nation’s leading rusher, tweaked his ankle in last week’s Big Ten West division clinching victory over Minnesota.
The Badgers have progressed as the season has gone on, closing with a 6-0 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread tear after a disappointing first-half tally of 4-2 straight-up and 1-5 against the spread.
One prominent measure actually has them more efficient than the Buckeyes on both offense, 7.2 yards per play to 6.9, and defense, 4.4 yards per play allowed to 4.9.
Pick: Wisconsin minus-3.5 Remember how it took a couple weeks to integrate Barrett into the offense? The curve will be sharper with the less talented Jones.
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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