NCAA Tournament by the Odds: Vegas picks for Sunday’s round of 32 games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 17, 2012 | 11 p.m.

Sunday marks one of the most bittersweet days of the year in local sports books.

On one hand, it’s another day of wall-to-wall basketball action. The opportunity to bet on eight high-stakes games is not one to complain about.

But much of the energy from the first three days of the weekend is zapped. A fair amount of the tourists who packed sports books all week are on a plane or stuck in I-15 traffic by the time of the third tipoff.

Even some who stick around for an extra day are exhausted and hesitant to dedicate another day to sports gambling pursuits after taking a rough beat or two.

It takes someone truly devoted to the cause to spend another 12 hours tucked away in a room with no windows in an attempt to grind out a profit. This blog will try to help with that objective.

The overall against-the-spread record improved to 21-19 with Saturday’s action. Top confidence plays are still undefeated at 5-0.

Check below for Sunday’s prognostications in order of confidence.

No. 13 Ohio (+2.5) over No. 12 South Florida Playing their third game in five days against a deceptively talented Bobcats squad is too much for the Bulls to handle.

No. 3 Georgetown (-4.5) over No. 11 North Carolina State Despite an impressive 16-11 mark against the spread, sports books have under-valued Georgetown all season long. They might be repeating their mistake here.

No. 7 Florida (-14) over No. 15 Norfolk State Norfolk State pulled off the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history by Vegas standards. Saying the Spartans' season is already made would be the understatement of the century.

No. 8 Creighton (+9) over No. 1 North Carolina The Blue Jays, a team that’s gone 4-0 straight-up as an underdog this season, can hang with the Tar Heels offensively and should give one of the NCAA Tournament’s favorites an early scare.

No. 6 Cincinnati (+2.5) over No. 3 Florida State With the way the Bearcats are playing, this line probably should have opened as a pick’em. It’s a classic toss-up.

No. 15 Lehigh (+3.5) over No. 10 Xavier Ignore the No. 15 seed next to Lehigh’s name because this team is much better than that. The Mountain Hawks genuinely believe they have more noise to make in the NCAA Tournament.

No. 2 Kansas (-7.5) over No. 10 Purdue The Boilermakers have played five games against teams ranked in the nation’s top five in defense — a group the Jayhawks are part of — this year. They’ve lost all five straight-up and gone 1-4 against-the-spread.

No. 1 Michigan State (-7) over No. 9 Saint Louis The Billikens are vastly underrated, but the Spartans should be the rare team capable of handling their defensive intensity.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.