Realtors’ poll shows Beers with lead in special council race

Wednesday, March 14, 2012 | 2:36 p.m.

Ex-state Sen. Bob Beers has about a quarter of the vote in the race to succeed former Las Vegas Councilman Steve Wolfson, with his closest challengers almost double digits behind, according to a survey conducted by national polling firm SGS for the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.

SGS, which polls for Realtors groups across the country, conducted the phone survey Monday and Tuesday night of 357 likely Ward 2 voters, resulting in a relatively high margin of error of almost 6 percent. (I have posted the instrument and a poll memo at right.)

The numbers:

Bob Beers: 24 percent

Ric Truesdell: 15 percent

Kristine Kuzemka: 13 percent

Bob Chinn: 8 percent

Anthony Ruggiero: 7 percent

The rest: 3 percent

Undecided: 30 percent

A few points as early voting begins Thursday and the election looms Tuesday:

1. Undecided is winning and will decide the race.

2. Truesdell’s mail barrage – he’s now on TV, too – has helped him.

3. Beers has nowhere to go now but down. The question is: Does Truesdell have enough time to catch him?

4. Kuzemka has been in third in most polls I have seen. She is in good stead with some Democratic faithful, so the more the turnout skews Democrat in the relatively even district, the better for her longshot chances.

5. Turnout is key. (All pundits must end every poll analysis with this meaningful phrase.)