Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Goodman crushing Giunchigliani in independent poll taken as early voting begins

Carolyn Goodman has a prohibitively large lead over Chris Giunchigliani in the race for Las Vegas mayor as the contest comes to a close, moving out to an almost 24-point lead.

Those are the results of a poll taken during the last two days of likely voters in the city of Las Vegas by Strategic National, a robopolling outfit that already has gauged the race once before. The numbers:

Goodman: 53.2%

Giunchigliani: 29.5%

Undecided: 17.3%

The margin of error for the poll of 359 voters is just above 5 percent.

"It is very clear that Goodman is on track for a strong victory unless something dramatic changes very soon," said John Yob, CEO of Strategic National and who paid for the poll out of curiosity. "She has extended her lead from 14 points (48-34) to almost 24 points since we polled the race in early April. More importantly, she has moved passed the all-important 50 percent barrier that is critical for a candidate with incumbency advantages."

The only poll I know of that has shown the race anything other than a blowout is Giunchigliani's survey, conducted by national Democratic firm, Benenson Strategy Group, which showed the contest a toss-up a few weeks ago and is posted elsewhere on this blog. Benenson did nail the primary in March, showing Goodman winning by 2-to-1 over Giunchigliani and Larry Brown close behind. But this latest survey has to be disheartening for the commissioner, who needs a monumental turnout effort and the right voters turning out to pull off a huge upset.

The poll by the GOP firm does skew Republican -- the demographics show it is 37 percent Democratic and 33 percent Republican and the actual city breakdown is 46-32, Democratic. So if Democrats get out to vote and vote for one of their own -- Giunchigliani -- she might have a chance (although Goodman has a 10-point lead over Democrats in the poll).

Straw-grasping for her? Maybe.

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