Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Turnout in Las Vegas mayoral race unlikely to meet 50,000 forecast

With only two days left, early and mail balloting crested 20,000 after Wednesday's votes were tallied. So even if it gets to 25,000 votes, that means it will not hit 50,000, as many had foretold. Nowhere in recent elections has Election Day balloting been anything close to what early/mail totals were.

So let's assume it's 25,000 before Tuesday and 10,000 on Tuesday: That's only 35,000 votes, a real possibility now. I'll boost it to 40,000 for the purposes of this exercise, but it may not get there.

So:

If Carolyn Goodman gets 35 percent (any lower and that may show serious vulnerability for the general), that's 14,000 votes. So to make the runoff, one of the other 17 will need to get only 8,000 votes or less -- that would be 20 percent.

This may be the time to remark on how few votes are needed out of Southern Nevada's population to become mayor of Las Vegas. Scary.

Luckily, the job is relatively unimportant.

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