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StumbleSaturday, Feb. 5, 2011 | 1:46 p.m.
That's what John Yob, a top adviser to John McCain's 2008 White House campaign and a cog in the Sharron Angle team, told me today about that mayoral poll he oversaw. He had some interesting thoughts when I asked him about the race and on the accuracy of robopolling (Interactive Voice Response, or IVR). Here's what he said:
"I would argue that IVR is more accurate than live polling for small universe elections if the sample size is higher. If you are polling an election with 70,000 votes, and you get a sample size of 900 people who traditionally vote in these elections, you have a good sized sample of the electorate.
"In general, I think we have moved past the point of questioning IVR for tracking surveys. Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, PPP, etc have proven to be some of the more accurate over the last few cycles.
"That said, it is much more difficult when you try to do 20-30 question benchmark surveys because of the drop off.
"I use IVR for all my tracking work in campaigns across the country, including McCain in 2008 Primaries.
"BUT....I think you are getting at something relative to turnout. ANY polling is only as accurate as the model it uses for turnout. Common sense dictates that people who have voted in municipal elections in the past are likely to vote in municipal elections in the future, particularly if they indicate that they are likely to vote.
"The biggest question, that I haven't seen anyone report on, is whether or not the tea party energy of 2010 that dominated Primary ballot boxes in small-universe states across the country (AK, DE, NV, moreso than CA, TX) will show up in municipal races.
"Clearly low turnout, and small state, elections are more susceptible to a tea party (or any non-traditional turnout) surge.
"Can you imagine if a candidate for Mayor in a contest that can be won with 30,000 votes had a tea-party fueled surge of support like Angle, O'Donnell, or Miller? More importantly, such a surge would only show up in polling data if the turnout model accounted for the possibility.
"My company handled GOTV in the primaries for both Angle, O'Donnell, and Snyder. It would be interesting to test the same methodologies in a low-turnout municipal race with a candidate who could inspire non-traditional municipal voters.
"The main thing that stuck out to me is that there is room for a conservative, or GOP-leaning, candidate to emerge in the primary and become the alternative to Goodman. The Dem leaning candidates are breaking up their vote and it probably hurts all of them. Goodman is the favorite but she is vulnerable because she is a quasi-incumbent, well below 50% and there is potential for non-traditional municipal-voter surge."
The tea baggers are out of fashion now. we all know they were ignorant trash funded by billionaires. Go ahead, and nominate another Angle or O'Donnel.
No one trusts the right wing anymore
Nick, I have no more use for the Teabaggers than you do. But this pollster comments shouldn't be ignored, because there is still pent up anger by a lot of angry, old, white people who are lashing out because they don't understand why their notions about the world are not working out. That's what the puppetmasters behind the Tea Party manipulate.
So I can see how a strategy of running right could help a Larry Brown or, possibly, a Steve Ross (though it would be more of a trick for Ross to pull this off.) Both Goodman and Giunchigliani could vulnerable to this.
Also, this guy practically admits what some of us knew all along: Angle was a phony phenomenon fueled by a spike in out-of-state money rushing into Nevada.
He has a 0-2 record and you are seeking his advice or comment?
Good Point. McCain WOW and Sharon Angle GEE.
It is like the national talk radio nuts talking about casinos busing people around, that's what casinos do.
Shoot the messenger, for all I care. But don't ignore the message. Sharron Angle was a perennial also-ran, ne-er do well. Then all of a sudden Sarah Palin is helicoptering into Searchlight, thousands upon thousands upon thousands of RV'er teabaggers are coming up from Arizona to protest Harry Reid, Angle gets over $20 million pumped into her campaign (only 18% of that from Nevadan's), and she runs a neck-and-neck race until the final days.
A last minute media and spending blitz could hijack our mayor's office. Only fifty thousand are expected to vote. Scoff at your own peril and the peril of our own future.
The Teabaggers died on the field here in NV so why did this guy's opinion take up the last minute and a half of my life?