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December 21, 2014

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Carolyn Goodman leads by huge margin in first poll of race to succeed her husband

The survey showed the mayor’s wife up more than 2-to-1, surely a product of her last name and Oscar’s amazing popularity across all demographics. The survey results, which I have posted at right, show two of the three elected officials in the contest bunched together – Clark County Commissioners Larry Brown and Chris Giunchigliani were essentially tied for second while Las Vegas Councilman Steve Ross barely registered.

The robosurvey was conducted by Strategic National, and you can see by the firm’s website it is a GOP firm (you may recognize one of the candidates at the top):

Strategic National

The survey was conducted by some national and local GOP folks interested in getting a Republican into the race who might be able to benefit from the three prominent Democrats and Goodman (a Democrat turned independent). Danny Tarkanian, as you will see from the poll, was the candidate of choice, but he elected not to run. The most viable Republican in the race is Victor Chaltiel, who is virtually unknown by the electorate, as you can see from the survey, but has plenty of money.

The survey was conducted this week of 910 city voters (3.25 percent margin of error). The breakdowns are included at right. (Actual city registration: 46 percent D, 32 percent R)

With all the usual caveats with robo polls and the usual caveats with low-turnout elections and the experienced candidates in the field, Goodman seems to be a potent frontrunner in this survey. Look how well she does with Republicans, too.

The key: Can the others separate her from Oscar? That is, can she win on his popularity alone?

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