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October 1, 2014

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Early, mail ballots in four key counties show Republicans with 20-point lead in CD2

Yes, we have only two days of data. But if the early voting and absentee ballot numbers are harbingers, Democrat Kate Marshall either is getting many crossover and independent votes (highly unlikely) or she is going to lose in a landslide.

I’ve tallied absentee and early votes in four counties where detailed records are on the web – the two urban counties, Washoe and Clark, and two rural counties, Douglas and Carson City – and the results are depressing for Democrats:

Republicans – 8,688 voters (55 percent)

Democrats – 5,514 voters (35 percent)

Total voters—15,770

(Note: The Washoe registrar absentee/early file appears not to have been updated after the first day, but whatever absentee ballots came in this week surely did not have a significant impact.)

A few points:

---The other 13 counties, which do not have their breakdowns readily available, in aggregate are heavily Republican, so the edge surely is even slightly larger.

----The breakdown in split Clark County (at least in CD2) is 50 percent to 34 percent for the GOP. In split Washoe, it’s 53-38. In heavily GOP Douglas, it’s 67-23. In solid GOP Carson City, it’s 58-31.

----The actual registration breakdown in these four counties: Republicans have 41 percent and Democrats have 37 percent. So you can see how much more enthusiastic Republicans are to vote than Democrats. (By the way, Washoe, where Democrats needed huge turnout, is more than half of the district in registered voters.) The actual registration in CD2 is 43-35, GOP.

These early numbers – one-sixth of early voting days complete – have to be seen as very, very ominous for Marshall. This is especially true if early voting ends up being well over half of the total turnout, which it usually is. It may even be a bigger share because only one race is on the ballot and people may be loathe to turn out on September 13.

Is that “Taps” I hear playing?

(In case you want county-by-county totals for early voting, the secretary of state is compiling, although not with party breakdowns, here)

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