Republicans surge in early voting Monday, now have 3 percent turnout advantage

Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2010 | 7:37 a.m.

Republicans surged in early voting Monday in Clark County, nearly matching the raw Democratic turnout (losing by 400 out of 20,000 cast) and stretching a statewide turnout advantage to 3 percent. This is ominous news for the Democrats if it continues.

In 2006, Republicans won early vote in Clark County by 2.1 percent in early voting. They now seem poised to at least double that. The margin is now well over 3 percent, and if mail ballots are included, not far from 4 percent.

In Washoe County, where registration is about even, the Republicans stretched a turnout lead to 2.6 points Monday.

If Democrats cannot blunt this surge in the final four days – when turnout may be even higher – they might need to have a good – or maybe even remarkable – Election Day performance to save Harry Reid, Dina Titus and others down the ticket.

Again, still hard to tell how candidates are holding their bases. But the Democrats have to be concerned about the beginning of the second week of early voting.

Total Clark early voting percentages relative to registration:

Democrats: 21.6 percent

Republicans: 24.7 percent

Total Clark with mail ballots added (Democrats still have 1,800-ballot lead):

Democrats: 25.0 percent

Republicans: 28.6 percent

Total urban early vote:

Democrats: 89,282 (21.2 percent)

Republicans: 79,428 (24.0 percent)

Total urban early vote (including absentees in Clark):

Democrats: 100,765 (23.9 percent)

Republicans: 89,042 (26.9 percent)

For numbers geeks:

CLARK:

Monday: Dems, 8,757 Rs, 8,333 rest, 3,347

Early: Dems, 72,389; Rs, 60,133 rest, 24,970

Mail: Dems, 11,483; Rs, 9,614 rest, 3,042

Combined: Dems, 83,872, Rs, 69,747 rest, 28,012

WASHOE:

Ds: 16,893 (19.6 percent)

Rs: 19,295 (22.2 percent)