Republicans inch up in early voting advantage, now lead in urban counties by just over 2 percent

Sunday, Oct. 24, 2010 | 9:30 a.m.

Nearly 18,000 voters turned out Saturday in Clark County, the biggest day yet in early voting and Republicans inched up only slightly in turnout percentage, as you will see from the numbers below. The Democrats have almost an 8,500-vote lead in early voting in the urban counties – about 10,000 if you count absentee ballots. The Republicans have about a 2.2 percent edge in turnout relative to registration – the usual advantage in a midterm is about 5 or 6 percentage points overall for the GOP.

Of course, this does not take into account how much Harry Reid and Sharron Angle are pulling from their bases – it may be reasonable to assume Reid holds more Democrats than Angle holds Republicans, but nothing in this race has been reasonable.

Independents and others are still turning out in smaller relative numbers, holding at about 10 percent or so.

In raw terms, the Democrats enjoy a 13 percentage point registration lead (46-33) in Clark and have a 47-38 lead in early/mail voting Clark County.

In Washoe, where registration is about even (the Rs have 800 more voters out of more than 200,000), the Republicans have about a six percent lead (46-40).

But, remember, everything is relative and the Democrats are just hoping to have a normal midterm loss in turnout percentage, which is what it looks like so far. The other difference this year is more people will vote early this year – or so it seems – than ever before, which will make the early voting advantage very important.

Total Clark early voting percentages relative to registration:

Democrats: 16.9 percent

Republicans: 18.9 percent

Total Clark with mail ballots added (Democrats extended their lead here to more than 1,800, returning about 100 more than the GOP)

Democrats: 20.1 percent

Republicans: 22.5 percent

Total urban early vote:

Democrats: 70,816 (16.8 percent)

Republicans: 62,447 (18.9 percent)

Total urban early vote (including absentees in Clark):

Democrats: 81,490 (19.3 percent)

Republicans: 71,274 (21.5 percent)

For numbers geeks:

CLARK:

Saturday: Dems, 8,440 Rs, 6,664 rest, 2,712

Early: Dems, 56,724; Rs, 46,149 rest, 19,143

Mail: Dems, 10,674; Rs, 8,827 rest, 2,822

Combined: Dems, 67,398 , Rs, 54,976 rest, 21,965

WASHOE:

Ds: 14,092 (16.4 percent)

Rs: 16,298 (18.9 percent)