Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Republicans have 2 percent turnout edge after one week of early voting, still looking for enthusiasm gap

Republicans had a .4 percent edge in Friday’s early voting, bumping up their turnout advantage to 1.8 percent with half of early voting completed in Clark County. That doesn't seem like much of an enthusiasm gap, but the Republicans still have a week to stretch that advantage and could have a 4 percent or so edge going into Election Day. A normal off-year election usually gives the GOP a 5 or 6 point advantage, so with more people voting early, this does not appear yet to be out of the ordinary.

The Democrats still have a substantial edge in raw vote numbers in the two urban counties -- about 7,000 votes. But that just indicates how important the state's independent and third-party voters (16,000-plus have turned out in Clark) could be.

Total Clark early voting percentages relative to registration:

Democrats: 14.4 percent

Republicans: 16.2 percent

Total Clark with mail ballots added (Democrats extended their lead here to more than 1,700):

Democrats: 17.3 percent

Republicans: 19.5 percent

At this pace, the Republicans will have about a 4 percent lead after early voting. That would be twice what they did in Clark in 2006 (2.1 percent), but the Democrats have more voters now.

Total urban early vote:

Democrats: 60,457 (14.3 percent)

Republicans: 53,770 (16.2 percent)

Add in mail ballots for Clark (no absentee tally for Washoe):

Democrats: 70,319 (16.7 percent)

Republicans: 61,870 (18.7 percent)

For numbers geeks:

CLARK:

Friday: Dems, 6,723 Rs, 5,737 rest, 2,415

Early: Dems, 48,284; Rs, 39,485 rest, 16,431

Mail: Dems, 9,862; Rs, 8,100 rest, 2,602

Combined: Dems, 58,146 , Rs, 47,585 rest, 19,033

WASHOE:

Ds: 12,173 (14.1 percent)

Rs: 14,285 (16.4 percent)

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