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Published Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2010 | 9:40 a.m.
Updated Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2010 | 9:50 a.m.
In Clark County, 8.5 percent of Democrats have turned out while 9.7 percent of Republicans – so that 1.2 percent lead is a slight uptick from the .9 percent lead the GOP had after Monday. No sign of a surge there.
If you add the mail ballot totals, where Democrats lead in Clark by about 1,300, the totals are:
Dems: 10.6 percent
Rs: 12.0 percent
The lead after Monday was 1.2 percent turnout advantage. No huge change.
Add in Washoe early votes to total Clark numbers (no absentee count for Washoe) and totals are:
Dems: 10.0 percent
Rs: 11.1 percent
Still looks like normal midterm differential, with just under a third of the days completed.
First glance at CD3 – combined early/mail:
Ds: 11.0 percent
Rs: 12.3 percent
For numbers geeks:
Raw numbers in Clark:
Tuesday: Dems, 6,994; Rs, 5,543, rest, 2,456
Early: Dems, 28,672; Rs, 23, 580; rest, 7,084
Mail: Dems, 7,027; Rs, 5,770; rest, 1,898
Combined: Dems, 35,699, Rs, 29, 350; rest, 9,540
Raw numbers for Washoe:
Ds: 6,392 (7.4 percent)
Rs: 7,672 (8.8 percent)
Republicans maintain small lead in early voting...
I thought that only the RJ did bad math. Since when is it that Democrats with 35,699 voters and Republicans with 29,350 is a Republican lead? Democrats outpace Republicans by close to 6000 votes. This isn't a percentages race folks, it's all about the raw final numbers.
Chandler should re-read the methodology of the facts in this article.
Sure, it's about the raw final numbers for the win, but this article is looking for an enthusiasm gap. If 10% of republicans had voted, but only 5% of democrats, that would indicate an enthusiasm gap, and indicate that Reid is in big trouble. There happen to be more democrats in Nevada than Republicans, which is why the republicans can have a higher percentage with a lower turnout count.
If Democrat and Republican turnout percentage are very close, which they are, then this election will likely be decided by the independent votes, and not by the voters of one of the parties being apathetic this year.
The 'common sense' that the mainstream media has been pushing this year is that democrats are disappointed and apathetic, and therefore will not show up to vote. This article is making the case that 'common sense' appears to be wrong.
The republicans have a lead with early voter turn out, but how many of them voted for Senator Reid ?
Quite a few, I'll bet !
It has to hard to get excited and enthused about voting for a lunatic like Crazy Angle.
She clearly needs intensive professional psychological care.
More than 10% of republicans will vote
for HARRY REID.
More than 10% of Democrats will vote
for SHARRON ANGLE.
Hey Larry, Democrats are not stupid.
No way in hell will they vote for crazy angle.
Democrats are not stupid???
Who runs this country now?
Good question there teamster...
TonyCrazo is referring to a couple of polls that were conducted PRIOR to the Reid-Angle debate.
The following polls were conducted after the big debate:
A Rasmussen poll was conducted on October 17th and showed Angle 50% and Reid 47%.
A Mason-Dixon poll was conducted on October 12 and showed Angle 48% and Reid 46%.
Guess the race bating TonyCrazo has missed it again...
Memo: Health Insurance, Banking, Oil Industries Met With Koch, Chamber, Glenn Beck to Plot 2010 Election
Lee Fang, ThinkProgress, Weds. 20 October 2010:
"While the Koch brothers - each worth over $21.5 billion - have certainly underwritten much of the right, their hidden coordination with other big business money has gone largely unnoticed. ThinkProgress has obtained a memo outlining the details of the last Koch gathering held in June of this year. The memo, along with an attendee list of about 210 people, shows the titans of industry - from health insurance companies, oil executives, Wall Street investors, and real estate tycoons - working together with conservative journalists and Republican operatives to plan the 2010 election, as well as ongoing conservative efforts through 2012." ...
"After ThinkProgess published its exclusive investigation of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce revealing that the Chamber has been actively fundraising from foreign corporations for its 501(c)(6) account used to run a $75 million attack ad campaign, Chamber lobbyists found common cause with Beck and many of the conservative talking heads. Shortly after our investigation, Beck hosted an on-air fundraiser, asking his audience to give to the Chamber. Casual observers might have been surprised by the Chamber's swift alliance with Beck (Chamber executives appeared on the Beck radio program and sung Beck's praises on the Chamber blog), who has compared Obama to Adolf Hitler and called the President a "racist" who has a "deep-seated hatred for white people." By telling his listeners to give money to the Chamber, Beck, who owns a media company worth more than $32 million dollars and an experimental Mercedes Benz, essentially told his working class viewers to give their wages back to their employers. However, Beck never disclosed his long working history of discussing political strategy with America's largest corporations. The Koch memo clearly shows that Beck has been collaborating with the Chamber, as well as other titans of industry, for years. In his latest appeal for support to the Chamber's foreign-funded trade association, which already counts JP Morgan and ExxonMobil as dues-paying members, Beck yesterday told his audience that the Chamber simply "defends the little guy."
Read the entire article at: http://www.truth-out.org/memo-health-ins......
Please, do NOT vote "None of the Above". It accomplishes nothing. Under Nevada election law, the candidate with the larger/largest number of votes wins. Consider your children and grandchildren, consider Nevada's future after recovery is complete, and consider how your voice will be stilled if Sharron Angle becomes our Senator and the most obstructionist member of Congress. Consider all of this and then cast your vote to re-elect Senator Reid.