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July 22, 2014

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RJ says Romney, Clinton leading

The RJ, ever-fearful that the Internet-illiterate newspaper will be scooped on its own information by someone who knows about new media, put out its results early of its poll that will be released Friday. The RJ indicates in an email to subscribers shows that Mitt Romney is ahead by 15 and Hillary Clinton by 9. The Mason-Dixon results contrast with those Research 2000 results a few days ago published by the Gazette-Journal, which showed dead heats on both sides.

The problem is that no one -- and I mean, no one -- has any idea what the turnout will be. I will go out on a limb and say it will be somewhere between the 9,000 of 2004 and the 100,000 forecast by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. If half of Reid's prediction turn out for the first-ever important caucus, that would be a huge success.

Polling for caucuses is difficult enough. Polling for a caucus in a state where this has never happened like this is nearly impossible.

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