Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Reflecting Upon the Transition

It’s fall, and once again I find myself in a mildly melancholy and reflective mood. Two thousand nine was, by my estimation, one of the most challenging, and both physically, and emotionally draining years in my 25-year professional career. If there ever was a more transitional and transformative year than 2009, it did not occur in my lifetime. The big question for me is, “To what is our society transitioning or transforming?” I know where we have been, but it is far more difficult to know where we are going.

A colleague of mine, Kyle Davy, says it best in his essay titled, “Transformation, Not Recovery, “when he asks these questions:

“Are we moving through a predictable (albeit deep) recession where things will eventually snap back to status quo? Or, have we just been through a firestorm of creative destruction of a release phase from which recovery is not an option?”

Kyle suggests that we are moving into a renewal phase that will offer a wealth of new possibilities and resources for innovation and entrepreneurship. In the essay, he uses an analogy to the fires in Yellowstone National Park in the late ‘80s to describe his account of the current recession.

“Viewed from an ecological perspective, the fires of 1988 were one critical phase (called the release phase) of a natural process of change and succession called the adaptive cycle. The adaptive cycle moves from a growth phase, when resources are plentiful and fast-growing entities take advantage of the resources to establish dominance in the ecosystem, into a conservation phase, where resources are securely “locked-up” in a few, established, long-lived species. During the late stage of a conservation phase, growth slows, diversity decreases, and resilience decreases. The system becomes an accident waiting to happen. A fast-paced release phase, triggered by some disturbance (fire, drought, insects, hurricane, etc.), inevitably frees the sequestered nutrients and opens up a world of new possibilities. Following this gale of creative destruction, the ecosystem moves into a renewal phase where new pioneering species may enter and grab a foothold. This, in turn, sets the stage for the next growth phase and the cycle continues.”

I believe and have advocated that this current recession is not a recession at all, but the birth instead of a new era. This new era will not be bound by the rules of the past, but will be fueled by the promise of a new and different future. Looking back at history’s previous recessions will not give us tips on how we can recover, because recovery is not an option in the renewal phase. Society has changed well beyond what you or I could have imagined by using our old way of thinking.

The good news is that those who have creativity, the ability to access their right brain, and who are willing to go out on a limb, should be able to start on the beginning of the growth cycle of the new era. Hopefully, you have not been standing on the sidelines and waiting for the status quo to return. Hopefully, you have been looking deeply into what your business has to offer, what the marketplace needs and how the two may align.

I’ve learned a tremendous amount about myself and my colleagues over the past year. It is now time to put that learning to work, just as nature would. Perhaps Mr. Davy is correct in his living system analogy -- after all, Mother Nature has seen many versions of the adaptive cycle, and always seems to land on her feet.

I’d like to hear from you:

• Have you been planning for renewal in your business?

• What other analogies make sense for what we are experiencing?

Until next time …

Craig

Kyle Davy’s essay, “Transformation, Not Recovery” can be read in its entirety at kyledavy.com.

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