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StumblePublished Monday, Nov. 16, 2009 | 10:40 a.m.
Updated Monday, Nov. 16, 2009 | 10:47 a.m.
It’s fall, and once again I find myself in a mildly melancholy and reflective mood. Two thousand nine was, by my estimation, one of the most challenging, and both physically, and emotionally draining years in my 25-year professional career. If there ever was a more transitional and transformative year than 2009, it did not occur in my lifetime. The big question for me is, “To what is our society transitioning or transforming?” I know where we have been, but it is far more difficult to know where we are going.
A colleague of mine, Kyle Davy, says it best in his essay titled, “Transformation, Not Recovery, “when he asks these questions:
“Are we moving through a predictable (albeit deep) recession where things will eventually snap back to status quo? Or, have we just been through a firestorm of creative destruction of a release phase from which recovery is not an option?”
Kyle suggests that we are moving into a renewal phase that will offer a wealth of new possibilities and resources for innovation and entrepreneurship. In the essay, he uses an analogy to the fires in Yellowstone National Park in the late ‘80s to describe his account of the current recession.
“Viewed from an ecological perspective, the fires of 1988 were one critical phase (called the release phase) of a natural process of change and succession called the adaptive cycle. The adaptive cycle moves from a growth phase, when resources are plentiful and fast-growing entities take advantage of the resources to establish dominance in the ecosystem, into a conservation phase, where resources are securely “locked-up” in a few, established, long-lived species. During the late stage of a conservation phase, growth slows, diversity decreases, and resilience decreases. The system becomes an accident waiting to happen. A fast-paced release phase, triggered by some disturbance (fire, drought, insects, hurricane, etc.), inevitably frees the sequestered nutrients and opens up a world of new possibilities. Following this gale of creative destruction, the ecosystem moves into a renewal phase where new pioneering species may enter and grab a foothold. This, in turn, sets the stage for the next growth phase and the cycle continues.”
I believe and have advocated that this current recession is not a recession at all, but the birth instead of a new era. This new era will not be bound by the rules of the past, but will be fueled by the promise of a new and different future. Looking back at history’s previous recessions will not give us tips on how we can recover, because recovery is not an option in the renewal phase. Society has changed well beyond what you or I could have imagined by using our old way of thinking.
The good news is that those who have creativity, the ability to access their right brain, and who are willing to go out on a limb, should be able to start on the beginning of the growth cycle of the new era. Hopefully, you have not been standing on the sidelines and waiting for the status quo to return. Hopefully, you have been looking deeply into what your business has to offer, what the marketplace needs and how the two may align.
I’ve learned a tremendous amount about myself and my colleagues over the past year. It is now time to put that learning to work, just as nature would. Perhaps Mr. Davy is correct in his living system analogy -- after all, Mother Nature has seen many versions of the adaptive cycle, and always seems to land on her feet.
I’d like to hear from you:
• Have you been planning for renewal in your business?
• What other analogies make sense for what we are experiencing?
Until next time …
Craig
Kyle Davy’s essay, “Transformation, Not Recovery” can be read in its entirety at kyledavy.com.
Craig, I went out on a limb, stepped outside my comfortable box and bought a hotel-condo in Lake Las Vegas/Montelago Village. A 3rd floor condo in the heart of the village with a great view of the lake, mountains, marina and Reflection Bay Golf course.
As it was a cash only deal, it was a big stretch to make the purchase. However, it was a great deal, hard to pass up. I beleive that Lake Las Vegas & the strip and the rest of the country will rebound. Everything is in transition right now, re-positioning itself. This goes for homes, hotels, golf courses etc. Confidence will return to this country.
So far, rental has been good and the condo has been profitable. People are still going to Lake Las Vegas to get away from reality. While people are so quick to complain about LLV, what people don't get is that LLV is a world away. Once in the village you can escape to another reality. No cars, no traffic, no hustle or bustle, a place to relax, unwind and enjoy a great meal. People automatically become friendlier there. Such a change from the strip. This is the side of Lake Las Vegas that the media doesn't want to report on It doesn't sell papers.
While this may not be totally on point with your article, I took the chance in buying in a property and neighborhood I believe in. Partly business and partly pleasure purchase. A beautiful place that I think will only get better for people and myself to enjoy for years to come.
Thank you for putting a positive article out there. It's too bad more people haven't responded.
Thanks for your comments. I wish you continued success in the transition.
To apply the ecological metaphor to our society, I think that 1960's were a time when materialism locked up the resources. So if you think of a set of humanist, empirical ideas as the trees, they are burning down and allowing us a chance to move toward the center and to put God back into every part of our lives.