25 Comments
Facebook
Fark
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Published Monday, Feb. 15, 2010 | 11:31 a.m.
Updated Monday, Feb. 15, 2010 | 12:36 p.m.
OK, so typically I will not try to give too much pub to these 'bracketologists' during the college basketball season, since all it really is for anyone at this point is a guess. There's still so much ball left to be played.
However, as far as 'if the season ended today' predictions go, ESPN's Joe Lunardi is as reliable as they come.
That's why I'm putting a link up to his latest installment of Bracketology.
Why today? Because from hearing/seeing/reading the reactions of the UNLV faithful following back-to-back 10-point losses, you'd be led to believe that the sky is falling over at Tropicana and Maryland.
It's not.
Lunardi confirms it.
The guy who in my book is as reliable as they come — today, mind you — says that the Rebels, who are 19-6 overall and 7-4 in the Mountain West with wins over New Mexico, BYU, Arizona and Louisville, are a No. 7 seed.
He apparently is a firm believer in the Mountain West being a three-bid league this year. And despite recent losses, UNLV still has a much more impressive résumé than San Diego State, which after Saturday is 18-7 overall and 7-4 in the league.
Lunardi has them matching up with Rhode Island from the A-10 in the first round, with the winner potentially getting a shot at second-seeded Duke.
How coincidental that they could meet 20 years after the 1990 national title run, huh?
My only bone to pick with Lunardi is the site of the potential matchups: Jacksonville.
Going to Jacksonville is essentially going to Florida without really experiencing Florida. Just a personal opinion.
OK, that's all.
Ryan, why would be want to believe what Lunardi writes when we can get all of the true information we need right here in the comment section from the experts who post only after UNLV losses?
Amen, VegasNative57, Amen!
Agreed.
Problem is boys, the season does NOT end today. With this team still plenty of anguish and nail biting to go before the NCAA's come calling.
Gumby's exactly right.
We're nervous because of the upcoming road contest at Utah, because CSU, TCU, AFA all played UNLV close.
We're nervous because of what might happen down the stretch, not because the Rebels lost two in a row to good opponents.
It does however stink that UNLV had a chance to control its own destiny by closing out SDSU and UNM and didn't take advantage of that opportunity, leaving no room for error in the last 5 games or in the MWC tourney.
Calm my nerves?????
When the Rebels are in a position where they have to win 6 to 7 games in a row without a misstep?
And IF we can manage that, the selection committee will make us play Kansas in the 2nd round again.
You're right. Nothing to be worried about. LOL
The BRAND OF BASKETBALL is excruciating. This is entertainment, and watching something that resembles JV vs. Varsity is, in the words of Jerry Maguire, a pride-swallowing seige. A team that looks like nails and makes strides one crucial game just to take three steps back in the next two is not entertaining; it is upsetting.
Ryan, what did YOU do when your beloved Jayhawks slid out from under the top spot? If you say you were "just fine" with it; you're lying.
Right on point Grayback. Until the Rebels decide to push and dictate a faster pace of play to take advantage of the strengths they have they will be ripe for upsets. The longer you allow weaker opponents to stay with you the tougher it is to polish them off. It seems like we are following the script of last year where down the stretch we averaged around 60 pts per game. This group can not win many half court slug fests. The slower we go the more we suck. Walking Rebels!
Homer, this may be the dumbest article you've ever written. It's great to read Joe's stuff but what kind of professional journalist uses it as an argument. Get a clue Mr. 85 points against Air Force.
C'mon, Green. Miech would respond to everybody and timely, at that. Don't take a pop shot and then run, buddy.
Grayback,
No pop shots. Just bringing this to everyone's attention. There was no motive behind it or anything. Just saying that, while a lot of commenters are freaking out and saying it's an NIT-bound team, I'm just saying that it's pretty widely assumed that the MWC is a 3-bid league, and UNLV is still the third-best option ahead of San Diego State. As for KU, when they lose, it really doesn't bother me. I know you probably don't believe me, but it's true :)
Also, kenns, if you can find me one instance in which I've referred to him as Chase and not Chace, I'll eat my shoe. Seriously.
Sorry, kenns, I don't write photo cutlines :) However, I can edit them, and I'm going to do it write now. Thanks for the heads up!
Thanks for interacting here, Mr. Greene. Please, stick around from now on. The deal with UNLV is - they're not out of the woods. This season has a VERY good chance to repeat last years' debacle. Quite frankly, that SUCKS. People, correct me if I'm wrong, but they think it sucks, too.
Now, about you and KU -- In retrospect, I probably wouldn't be phased by it, either. You know your team is good for atleast the Sweet Sixteen. UNLV fans have no clue if the Rebels will make the field of 65 every season. That's hard to take for a fanbase whose program was voted by ESPN the 8th-most prestigeous in college basketball since 1984.
Grayback, I completely understand where you're coming from. You're right in that they're not out of the woods. But I think they'll have at least two limbs out if they can pull it off in Salt Lake on Wednesday night.
Lunardi is the most accurate predictor year in and year out. He has the Rebels at a 7 seed right now- nowhere close to the bubble. But anything less than 4-1 (and we really need 5-0) the last stretch will change that. Losses to NM and SDS aren't bad losses- losing to Utah twice, AF, CSU, TCU or Wyoming would be.
I just don't see the Rebels winning in SLC. The Utes defend the 3 as well as anyone and funnel Bellfield or Willis to Foster the 7-3 center who never is called for a foul. I also guarantee this will be another game in which the referees let them play, so Willis will not get to the line like he needs to. Willis needs to learn to take it hard to Foster as did Dairese Gary of UNM. Gary made Foster cower.
i think the mwc tourney will be the determining factor to who goes to the tourney. If san diego state goes to the finals then we are in big trouble. i still see us the 4th best team in the mwc. everyone has a right to be concerned... but the emotional posts after the losses make some people in here look like whiny teenage girls. i get as fired up as the next person but geez.. take some time to compose yourselves. rebels win about 10 comments... rebels lose.... 75 comments.
The postseason scenario is relatively simple, despite what some misinformed sensationalistic comments indicate. We have five regular season games and at least one conference tournament game. If we win at least five of those games, we'll be a bubble team, but we will almost certainly still get in.
If we win 6 more games, we are a stone cold lock for the tournament. No doubt about it.
If we lose to Utah and drop one of the other four games, we'd probably need to get the automatic bid.
It's pretty simple. It seems worth mentioning that it isn't just Lunardi who thinks the Rebels are in great shape. Every single respected bracketologist (that's almost an oxymoron) that I can find has UNLV as a single digit seed right now. CBSsports.com's Jerry palm has us as a 6.
We are in great shape. If they just keep it together they'll be fine. No reason to panic.
From ESPN's Bubble Watch (written by Mark Schlabach):
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatc...
UNLV [19-6 (7-4), RPI: 36, SOS: 55] The Runnin' Rebels probably missed a chance to "lock up" an NCAA at-large bid by losing two games last week. UNLV lost to New Mexico 76-66 at home on Wednesday and fell 68-58 at San Diego State on Saturday. Before the two-game slide, the Rebels had won five games in a row. UNLV should still be in very good shape, with an 8-2 record in road games, a 4-4 record against RPI top-50 foes and an 8-5 record against the top 100. UNLV beat traditional powers such as Louisville (home) and Arizona (road) and won in tough environments like The Pit at New Mexico. UNLV should be heavily favored in each of its last five MWC regular-season games. As long as it doesn't collapse down the stretch, UNLV should be included in the NCAA's 65-team field.
We need athletic and aggressive big men. Until that happens.....the Rebels are capable of losing to anyone. Could you imagine what we'd be like if we had just 2 big men the caliber of SDSU's to go along with Kruger's coaching? Cut our losses in half, at least.
Come on Kruger, it sticks out like a sore thumb in almost every game and has for 3 seasons now! 3 damn years to recruit something decent. Other than QT (who isn't proven yet) we've got nothin', zero, nada, zip!
I think we can pretty much all agree that we're not going to the sweet 16 this year. So in my mind the season is for all intents and purposes....over. And has been IMO since the Utah loss. Fine whatever, what I care about is the recruiting time between now and the beginning of next season. Get the freakin' job done Kruger. If not, I sincerely hope that the public holds your feet to the fire.
"...As long as it doesn't collapse down the stretch, UNLV should be included in the NCAA's 65-team field."
That was the landscape for the Rebels around this time in 2008-09. We'll see which way they go.
i think that our road record is the difference. if we win 80% of our road games then we're in good shape.
That "bubble watch" entry was written prior to the Utah loss, just fyi. I just think that, given the selection committee's notorious history of hosing UNLV, that we need to win out, including the MWC tourney, following the devastating loss to Utah. I think even if we beat CSU, Wyoming, and AFA, then win the first two in the MWC tourney, and lose the final, in such a scenario there will be a definite reason to be nervous on selection day.
The updated bubble watch says essentially the same thing. All that was changed was now it says the Rebels missed an opportunity to lock up a bid by losing to Utah, but they are still in great shape.
If we win the next three and then two games in the tournament, only to lose in the MWC Championship game, there will be no reason to be nervous. We would be an absolute lock at that point. That resume would include 25 wins, a top 40 rpi, 5 top 50 victories, and 3 or 4 top 25 victories.
That would probably get us a 6 or a 7 seed.
The CSU result definitely helps, and I bow to your wisdom, Wispy. I just am not as comfortable with an at-large after losing to Utah twice, and three straight late in the season.
In 2007 we won 27 games and playing on a roll having won the MWC tournament, and were given a 10 seed.
But I also see your argument, and the MWC is much stronger this year than in 2007, so maybe there is hope. I just want these kids to make the NCAAs this year so badly.