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I like talking about gambling — especially since moving here. And the other day, I realized that I haven't done so quite enough in this blog.
But mixing gambling and UNLV football seemed like the appropriate opportunity to do so.
That said, we had a quick few minutes of banter yesterday in the office regarding the line on this weekend's contest in Fort Worth between 3-5 UNLV and 7-0 TCU. The Rebels got a mid-season pick-me-up by beating lowly New Mexico on the road last Saturday. The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, thumped BYU, 38-7, and leap-frogged fellow cinderella candidate Boise State in the latest BCS polls.
As for the line on the game, it opened Sunday at 31 points. It quickly shot up to 36 points by Tuesday morning, and now appears to have settled at 35.
So, obviously, a lot of people are curious.
I have two schools of thought on this one ...
Why TCU can cover: The Horned Frogs need to make statements down the stretch to stay in the voters' good graces. They'd probably never admit it, but they do. So, that said, why let off the gas pedal if they jump out to a huge halftime lead? With their team speed and overall talent level, if TCU wants to drive home a point to the rest of the nation when up big, it's a team that is more than capable.
Why UNLV can cover: For argument's sake, lets say that TCU is up 35-7 at the half. At that point, the Horned Frogs probably play their starters for a chunk of the third quarter, then hand it over to the backups. For example, last season at Sam Boyd Stadium, they led the Rebels 37-7 late in the third quarter when the first-teamers came out. If that happens again, UNLV's offense is probably going to be able to produce a touchdown or two late. That's why UNLV, if it falls behind early, could eek out a cover late.
If I were given some money to throw on this game, I think I'd probably go with UNLV, in all honesty. I don't think TCU coach Gary Patterson is the kind of guy who rubs it in anyone's face just to impress outsiders, and if he does, I bet he thinks the Horned Frogs did enough of that last weekend by blowing out the Cougars.
Now I ask: Who ya got? Answer below, let us get some dialogue going here ...
I got the Phillies in 7.
Patterson seems like a classy (old school) type guy. I don't see him humiliating an opponent even if it would help slightly in the rankings. That said, 31 points is not "a million" by any means. So, 31 sounds EXACTLY right. I say the bookmakers got this one right and it is an even 50-50 and, therefore, not the bet to stake the ol' homestead on. That my un-biased opinion.
As for contributing to the dialogue, I think everyone is over-estimating how well TCU's pass rush will do against UNLV. So, I think the Rebs put up 17 in the first half. But, passing is all we have. TCU makes fixes at half and no more UNLV points. 37-17, TCU, sounds about right to me. Thats my biased opinion.
Ouch, even my biased opinion isn't that good for UNLV. Sorry Rebs, its not you- its your coach.
bob, I happen to like the Phillies in 5.
maryland, you're right, I think. 37-17 is a good call. TCU's the kind of team that can make 37-17 feel much more lopsided than it is, however. But if you bet the Rebels, you'd love to see that final, obviously.
You guys are crazy, yanks in 6.
I'd take TCU just because for the reason you mentioned...they need to look good for the voters and CREAM UNLV!
...and would bet against me in a grammar checking contest...
I actually think UNLV +35 is a good bet. Historiclly TCU doesn't cover that kind of spread often. Also I agree that Patterson isn't the kind of guy worried about the polls. The x factor in this game is TCU's explosive return man. If it wasn't for him, I would think 35 was a lock.