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Published Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2009 | 2 a.m.
Updated Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2009 | 1:34 p.m.
OK, I'm not going to even try and get cute or funny with some small-talk leading into this.
So here it is. Five predictions for both fall camp -- which starts on Thursday -- and the upcoming 2009 season.
1) C.J. Cox will be starting at tailback on Sept. 5.
Last week, I was playing the new NCAA 2010 game on XBOX360 with my roommate, and decided to give the Rebels a whirl, just to see what the creators at EA decided to make the team look and perform like.
Cox was impressive as the starter next to Omar Clayton, while Bradley Randle was nowhere to be found on the roster (of course, this was before applying roster updates). But that's the point. No one has seen the kid up close and personal yet, and there's no grounds for appointing him as the starter on hype alone.
His YouTube highlight reel is impressive. Is it completely out of the question that he could be starting in the opener against mighty Sacramento State? No. But the fact that C.J. Cox has really wowed teammates in offseason workouts (and also did so in spring practices) shouldn't be too far under the radar.
Still, I think Randle plays a bunch early on. Why? Because I buy the hype all the time.
2) If the secondary improves, the defensive line will have plenty to do with it.
Mike Sanford and his staff brought in a ton of fresh bodies this year to try to improve what last year was the 60th-ranked pass defense in the nation.
In terms of points allowed, UNLV ranked 100th. The Rebels were also 115th in sacks, 116th in tackles for loss and tied for 107th in interceptions.
Yes, a lot to digest.
But one moment from last season truly sticks out in my mind, and that's Quinton Pointer's 77-yard interception return against New Mexico in a must-win game on Nov. 8, which sparked a comeback in the second quarter and breathed new life into the Rebels' fading bowl hopes.
In that game, UNLV's defensive front got in the face of New Mexico quarterback Brad Gruner on several occasions. They forced him into two key turnovers as he had little time to make decisions for much of the night. That hadn't consistently been the case for opposing quarterbacks during UNLV's previous five games -- all losses.
The talent and depth in the secondary are both improved, but they'll need an accompanying pass rush to go with it.
That means all eyes will be on juco transfer B.J. Bell along with junior tackle Malo Taumua, who appears poised for a big season.
3) No matter what you see, hear or read, there's no quarterback competition.
I repeat: NO QUARTERBACK COMPETITION.
Honestly, both quarterbacks are going to look strong in fall camp. There will even be times when Mike Clausen (remember, backup) looks better than Omar Clayton. He had a few of those moments in the spring.
But still, Clayton holds the No. 1 spot.
Even though a knee injury ended his 2008 season against TCU, it's easy to forget where Clayton ranked among the nation's starting signal-callers in terms of efficiency. It's easy to forget because when the Rebels needed to win their final three games, Clausen came from nowhere to win the first two and had them on the postseason's doorstep.
Clayton had the 29th-highest passer efficiency rating in the nation (140.50) and threw just 4 interceptions in 258 pass attempts.
Also, it'd be one thing if these guys were rivals. They're not. You won't hear any griping. And for a program that's craved quarterback stability for years, this is essentially the same as getting both a Lexus and a Cadillac for Christmas -- despite the state of the economy.
4) This year's potential upset special ...
Before last season, I picked the Nov. 1 home game against TCU.
Yeah, well, good thing I didn't advise anyone to put money on it.
This year? Lets take Oct. 17, when the Rebels face Utah at Sam Boyd Stadium.
5) As for this year's record ...
For now, I'm saying 6-6.
Could it certainly be higher? Sure. Could it be lower? Sure.
But taking everything into account, 6-6 is a very fair prediction right now.
good stuff ryan.... i believe the hype too, your not alone. thats why i get fired up every year, acually look forward to foozeball season, then the huge sandford letdown. oh well i still bleed scarlet and grey.
I have been to several practices and am impressed with the "vibe" from both coaches and players.
We have some very good returning players and some very good fresh blood. This should provide the winning attitude that has been lacking.
I am going out on a limb with 7-5.
It is time for some football.
Make sure you keep us posted on the happenings in Ely.
As I have done every year since attending my first Rebels game in 1983, I am excited about this year's squad. I cannot wait to see our passing attack with the great receiving core we have and another year under Clayton's belt.
I want to see if we can run the ball consistently.
I want to see if our D-line can stop a run outside the tackles.
To make a long story short, September 5th cannot come quick enough. The Rebels' players work the butts off in this heat year after year. They deserve our attendance at the games.
reagan, as a long term season ticket holder I agree about the attendance.
We have a good game and the next week attendance is ok, but if we have a bad week the marching band has more people.
People have to get behind the effort and support this team. When I go to Texas, Cali or even Arizona I get asked who I root for and I always say that the Rebels are my team. They need to be Las Vegas' team.
A complete season would be a winning record,a bowl game, and a red painted fremont cannon.
getalife ... 7-5 is certainly doable. In my mind, there's two games which will dictate this season -- Oregon State and Reno. If the Rebels get one of those two, I think 7-5 can be expected.
As for the attendance, I think it will take care of it if they can win early. Heck, remember last year's 3-1 start with the win against Arizona State. When the Rebels faced UNR, the place had a helluva buzz to it. If they can be 3-2 or 4-1 heading into the back-to-back home games against BYU and Utah on Oct. 10 and 17, respectively, Sam Boyd could have that atmosphere all over again.
I hope you are right about the attendance. I know I will be there, and I hope thoudands of others will follow suit.
They BYU game will be full...er because of the massive mormon population in Las Vegas. I hope they can pull that game off, and I would not be too suprised to see it happen. Collie won't be there to bail them out time and time again and their defense is garbage. I also expect BYU to come into Vegas after a couple of early losses. OK should run them into the ground and I am not sure if BYU can match the FSU speed.
Ryan, I am with you about Oregon State and Reno.
Last year was a great start but as soon as they fizzled attendance dropped faster than the Tuba players after a touchdown.
We need loyalty.
UNR beat us with the same play over and over again, it was embarrassing. If they want people to stay with them, they can't breakdown like they did last year. The Battle for the Freemont Cannon is the most important game of the season for a lot of fans.
Prediction #2 is exactly right--I've been telling people this for a while. A major reason our secondary has been lit up the past four seasons is the lack of a pass rush. Until our D gets pressure on the QB (see Utah vs. Alabama last year) the DBs will continue having a hard time. Last year's New Mexico game was our best ever in that area--since Sanford has arrived--and was nice to finally see, frankly. A little more creativity with our blitz packages is needed. Bring the heat, baby!
Can't wait for the season to start... Call it a curse, but I LOVE UNLV Football!! Go Rebels!
How's Fuimaono doing? Healthy yet? Man, I can't imagine he and Beauchamp out there together, should be a big boost to an already solid LB core.
unlvreblx,
By all accounts, Starr is doing great. We'll see him tonight at practice for the first time since last fall, and he'll be in pads on Monday. Trust me, we'll keep you WELL updated on his condition.
Rebels will have a good season but can they beat B. Y. U or Nevada
I think not Ault will out coach Sanford again to keep the Fremont Cannon painted blue