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Published Wednesday, May 21, 2008 | 6:20 p.m.
Updated Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2008 | 10:15 a.m.
Clark County Director of Aviation Randy Walker broke some bad news to analysts with investment firm Deutsche Bank, revealing that the proposed Ivanpah airport will likely be delayed by 18 months, pushing the opening date to 2018 or 2019 from 2017, as originally planned.
Delaying this so-called relief airport south of town will exacerbate an already troubling situation in Las Vegas, whose airport is expected to max out at a time when more air service is needed to fill tens of thousands of new hotel rooms now under construction.
McCarran International Airport could reach capacity by 2010 or 2011, leaving a gap of at least seven years until Ivanpah is built, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a research note today.
McCarran officials said the airport can now sustain at least 53 million passengers per year and could support an additional 24,000 hotel rooms after its Terminal 3 expansion opens in 2011.
But that's short of the 42,000 hotel rooms projected to be built, by Deutsche Bank's count, between 2008 and 2012. That could mean a shortfall of 8 million visitors per year, analysts said.
The Ivanpah airport (which still faces some regulatory and design hurdles) looks increasingly unlikely and unnecessary given the significant and structural issues facing the American economy. It's not clear to me who is going to fill all those thousands of hotel rooms.
Airline capacity is shrinking, not growing.
Given that we're looking at $10 gas by 2010, I don't think people will be driving here either. Can anybody say... ghost town?
McCarran may be running out of capacity. But how to solve the capacity issue has not been adequately evaluated.
First, it is not just the capacity of McCarran itself, but the capacity of our airspace to handle aircraft traffic. It is also the issue of the capacity of I-15 to handle traffic between California and Las Vegas. A solution to the capacity issue is not simply building another airport.
Second,with capacity and the cost of energy being limitations, priority aircraft traffic should be reserved for long haul traffic (New York to Las Vegas), NOT short haul traffic (Los Angeles to Las Vegas). Eliminating short haul traffic will "add" capacity to McCarran.
Third, If you eliminate short haul traffic to McCarran a substitute means of getting to Las Vegas would be needed. The substitute means being high-speed rail. Additionally, this will address capacity issues with I-15. In theory, high-speed rail may get people and freight to Las Vegas just as quick as aircraft.
Fourth, the establishment of the Ivanpah airport will actually DETRACT from the Las Vegas experience. A first glance a brand new shiny airport may add to the glitz of Las Vegas. Over the long term airports are development magnets, which means that casinos and businesses will locate by the airport. Eventually people may stay at the airport and stop coming to Las Vegas.
Fifth, downtown Las Vegas is still looks depressed. Building a new airport on a remote undeveloped site will NOT solve this problem. A potential solution exists in the form of high speed rail, which can bring people directly into downtown Las Vegas.
Clark County has toyed with this idea for over 10 years, and prefers to sit on its hands rather than act on it. As a pilot, most of us hate flying in and out of Las Vegas. Having to circle the entire valley sometimes twice after takeoff or prior to landing is insane. And add to it that you sit on a crowded taxi way for sometimes up to 20 minutes is idiotic. At todays fuel costs, this county is wasting more jet fuel than some airlines. And lets not forget the stupid altitude rule over the United States of Summerlin either. What Vegas needs is a larger more modern airport with better and longer runways, and terminals that can actually handle volume adequately. But the idiots who run this town and county will screw this up in the process as well, like building the airport first, and opening it, then worrying about access roads and parking. The only thing this stupid county is capable of is opening a casino. And then whining when they can't fill every room 24/7 365.....Build a few more, and don't worry about the airport or roadways. And when airlines that now give you 20-30 flights a day cut back to 5 or 6, you will have no one to blame but yourselves. By the end of the year we will cut capacity to this city by 10%. And smaller aircraft too. So you will have to get your precious gamblers in to town some other way. But the way Nevada moves, that will take decades as well..............
@ Steve_R -
I completely agree with you on the eminent usefulness of high speed rail. This November, California voters will be asked to approve a $9.95 billion bond for their own. For details, see
http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/
Nevada voters should consider nixing both the Desert XPress and the maglev to Anaheim project championed by Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev).
http://www.desertxpress.com/
http://www.scag.ca.gov/Maglev/
Instead, they should urge the promoters of these competing projects to join forces and pursue a spur off the California system, which relies on steel wheels technology that has been in operation in Europe and Japan for decades.
The money for this extension would have to come from the state of Nevada, the feds and/or private investors - roughly analogous to the funding model for the California system. Constructing a spur would avoid having to construct an expensive mountain crossing into the LA basin. Without any intermediate stops, trains could easily average 200mph - propelled entirely by renewable electricity from solar thermal and hydroelectric power plants in Nevada.
Significant economies of scale would result from pooling purchasing power, engineering resources, maintenance yards etc. Nevada could also avoid the construction of a new airport and spend the money on excellent local transit instead. After all, you want visitors to spend their money on having fun, not on filling up. Here are some estimated travel times:
01:20 Las Vegas - Palmdale Airport
01:45 Las Vegas - Burbank
02:00 Las Vegas - Los Angeles
02:20 Las Vegas - Anaheim
03:15 Las Vegas - San Diego
01:40 Las Vegas - Bakersfield
02:10 Las Vegas - Fresno
03:00 Las Vegas - San Jose
03:20 Las Vegas - San Francisco
03:00 Las Vegas - Sacramento
A 300mph maglev from Anaheim would be faster but consume more electricity and serve only Orange County. Also, the technology risk of steel wheels is lower.
Passengers could ease into and out of their Las Vegas experience in a "High Roller" class featuring individual video-on-demand screens and/or live entertainment plus first-rate food service. Actual gambling would probably not be allowed within California, but CHSRA has stated the operations of the system will be open to public tender.
Latching onto the California system would help get the bond measure there passed and make it easier to secure matching funds for both states from Congress. But hurry, November is approaching fast.
Btw, I forgot to mention this: the spur off the California HSR system to Las Vegas I have in mind would branch off near Mojave and follow highways 58 and the I-15 median, bypassing Edwards AFB Barstow to the north. It would only serve passengers and not be used for freight.
In Las Vegas station should be west of I-15, between W. Hacienda, Polaris, W. Russell and Dean Martin, possibly underground. Ideally, the monorail would be spruced up and extended to provide connecting service.
Here's a Google map of the spur I have in mind.
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&a...
gas and economy will hurt this town. if gas keep going up. can u said bakersfield. when u have storefront(commercial building) empty. for long period of time. when u have countrywide mortgage pulling line of credit here u have problem. when u have foreclosure u have problem. just last month there was 5000 foreclosure. also in december more adjustment on mortgage going to happen. this town is hurting. i will not be surprise if people will go back home were they came from.because when economy is bad u only have your family. also when your storage places (like uhaul storage1) are empty that tells u something people not staying.
i hear you launce. once 4.00 a gallon it will not down below gas will hurt this down. when southwest airline cut 4 flights into las vegas
we don't need ivanpah airport. because there won't be enough people here to come