13 Comments
Facebook
Fark
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Published Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008 | 1:05 p.m.
Updated Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2008 | 10:15 a.m.
Interesting piece in The New Republic from data-guru Nate Silver titled, "How the West Was Lost," about McCain's troubles in his own backyard.
Key sections:
Why is McCain performing so poorly in his own backyard? In part, he is fighting a Sisyphean battle against the demographic changes in the region. The Census Bureau measures how many people migrate into each state each year. In 2006, half of the top ten fastest-growing states were in the West, ranging from Nevada (3.5 percent) to Colorado (1.9 percent). These new residents generally fall into one of two categories: college-educated white folks from the coasts looking for cheaper housing, better schools, or a higher quality of life--or, Latinos. Both groups are quite friendly to Democrats.
Silver says westerners are more isolationist, less into McCain’s military interventionism.
Also, he’s on the wrong side of pet issues (see Mountain, Yucca.)
Finally....
Lastly, McCain's campaign is simply being outhustled. In Colorado, for instance, the McCain campaign has opened 12 field offices to Obama's 47; in New Mexico the ratio is 15 to 38. Because so many voters in the West are emigrants from elsewhere in the country (just 12 percent of Nevada voters in 2004 were native to the state), identifying and tagging one's voters is at a premium; relying on voter lists from four years ago won't do. This is bad news for McCain, who has placed less emphasis on turnout than perhaps any campaign in recent memory.
The IBT poll has new results. IBT was the most accurate poll of the 2004 election. http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?...
So I guess that the ABC News/Washington Post poll from today (Obama +11) was an outlier.
And the Gallup poll -- Obama +6? Outlier.
Hotline (Obama +5): Outlier.
Rasmussen? Obama +7? What a joke. Outlier.
'Cause any poll that gives McCain 74% of the 18-24 vote (as IBD did) has to be considered the gold standard of the election polls so far.
Oh, and I almost forgot to mention another poll that clearly shouldn't be taken seriously... Zogby/Reuters, which puts it at Obama 52, McCain 40.
This poll USED to count (Drudge played it up big time when it showed McCain within 3). But now that it's at Obama +12, it is clearly an outlier and not to be trusted.
i dont like about this because they dont tell u more information :o( but i give it a 2
Yeah, Drudge clearly is digging at the bottom of the barrel for ANY poll that looks favorable for McCain.
It's desperate and obvious, of course, which is why I get such a chuckle out of seeing that dumb siren gif above the new Nickelodeon/Christian Broadcasting Network poll which has McCain up by 1 among toddlers and born-again Christians.
Nate Silver's site: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com has an intimidatingly thorough amount of historical stats, polls, etc.
I like the aggregate approach. This poll factors out the partisans after Oct. 11th. Most accurate approach for me, at least as far as poll "accuracy" goes...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...
John,
The problem with that approach is that the aggregate polling number is tilted by the vast number of outlier polls by those who are clearly in the tank for McCain.
Take those Communists from Fox News, for example. Obama +9?? I tire of their constant shilling for their man Barack.
Far better that we do as neiman suggests, and focus entirely on a single poll by IBD. Of course, if that poll shows Obama by double digits next week, we can assume they're also in the tank for Obama and cherry pick some other poll at random.
thebs, re http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
Excellent site. Thank you for posting it.
Anonymous_Guy, it's beginning to look like a potential landslide for the libs across the board. Amazing.
And, in all seriousness, I'm beginning to understand why the righties here exhibit so much fear.
And this virtually assures McCain has lost the race...
"Sen. John McCain's brother called 911 to complain about stalled traffic."
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politic...
Yes, "McCain's campaign is simply being outhustled." The McCain campaign had a shake-up at the beginning of July 2007 as McCain's "campaign was bleeding money, riven by infighting." McCain's campaign had problems again in May 2008. This was all before Obama even became the Democratic nominee. If McCain can't run a campaign, how is he going to run this country?
During the campaign, "Obama has kept his composure and maintained a vision of optimism that has drawn an unparalleled wave of young people into the political process. His policies and his persona have offered hope to a nation that is deeply polarized, swimming in debt, mired in war and ridden with anxiety."
There's just time enough to start getting out the 2012 PALIN-LIEBERMAN posters while they have the press's attention.
http://texex-xpress.blogspot.com/2008/10...
McWhacko has been knifed in the back with a high heel and doesn't even know it yet. heh heh heh...
**Sorry the you may need to copy & paste the links to browser if they do not work.
Who is the real McCain?
His treatment of Veterans is unbelievable and inhuman. One soldier this month was on The Rachael Maddow Show explained how he treats soldiers, they gave him a "D" rating.
His very close friend is also a friend of Bill Ayers and it appears he is also a member of Palin's radical groups.
http://www.usvetdsp.com/feb08/mccain_tru...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27062761/
http://www.usvetdsp.com/oct08/mccain_kie...
http://www.usvetdsp.com/nov07/mccain_dec...
http://www.usvetdsp.com/jan08/mccain_mil...
Who are these American haters Palin has close ties with? She said "keep up the good work". She uses her same phase when she is told to fire someone ("budget cut"). Here is some interesting information that may explain Michelle Bachmanns' question and promised political climb behind the scene.
All of the following information was found on salon.com.
Great reading!!!
This will answer the question regarding American haters and more:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/1...
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/200...
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/0...